WVclimo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Had a few flakes/ snow grains earlier. But radar returns now are just east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Mostly sleet here but road is turning white now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Light coating mostly Styrofoam puffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Morning AFD from Mount Holly for tomorrow- KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low slides by offshore on Sunday, bringing some snow, mainly to areas along and south/east of I-95. The highest snow amounts will be concentrated near the coast. An area of low pressure develops off the coast of the Outer Banks on Saturday Night and lifts northeast. The low looks to pass by close enough to bring some snow to the region, mainly along and south/east of the I-95 corridor. The latest trend with the 00z guidance was a slight jog northwest with the track of the low, which would bring more snow to the region. However, will not deviate much from the previous forecast to avoid wind-shield wiping the forecast plus the setup is not overall conducive for a significant snow event. The deterministic forecast is more in line with HREF and NBM. Thinking around 1-2" from I-95 on south and east. Cannot rule out some amounts higher than 2", especially near the immediate coast. However, there could be some mixing issues in the coastal areas as well at onset as temperatures will be above freezing in the low- levels. This may be offset though by higher QPF compared to inland areas and heavier snowfall rates. Both NBM/HREF probability of 2" or more (Advisory criteria) is around 20-30% for the coastal counties with 10-20% near I-95. So, we may need winter weather headlines near the coast, however the theme with this event remains unchanged as it should just be a rather light snowfall with insignificant snowfall totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Morning AFD from Mount Holly for tomorrow- KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low slides by offshore on Sunday, bringing some snow, mainly to areas along and south/east of I-95. The highest snow amounts will be concentrated near the coast. An area of low pressure develops off the coast of the Outer Banks on Saturday Night and lifts northeast. The low looks to pass by close enough to bring some snow to the region, mainly along and south/east of the I-95 corridor. The latest trend with the 00z guidance was a slight jog northwest with the track of the low, which would bring more snow to the region. However, will not deviate much from the previous forecast to avoid wind-shield wiping the forecast plus the setup is not overall conducive for a significant snow event. The deterministic forecast is more in line with HREF and NBM. Thinking around 1-2" from I-95 on south and east. Cannot rule out some amounts higher than 2", especially near the immediate coast. However, there could be some mixing issues in the coastal areas as well at onset as temperatures will be above freezing in the low- levels. This may be offset though by higher QPF compared to inland areas and heavier snowfall rates. Both NBM/HREF probability of 2" or more (Advisory criteria) is around 20-30% for the coastal counties with 10-20% near I-95. So, we may need winter weather headlines near the coast, however the theme with this event remains unchanged as it should just be a rather light snowfall with insignificant snowfall totals. Till they issue warnings later cause the models keep going to snowier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1-2" in the forecast here. See how trends go today but probably a good forecast. Maybe 3" or so closer to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Till they issue warnings later cause the models keep going to snowier. Yeah they will be playing catchup today if the trends continue or if it even holds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Till they issue warnings later cause the models keep going to snowier. They hinted at that, but still quite a bit of disparity. AI aside, Its the GFS and a few of the CAMS that have more snow and are more expansive with the precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Latest Natty Blend. For both events ofc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 39 here with a beautiful sunrise as clouds move in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Finally snowing again. Let’s see how long we can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 T'ed up and 33 in Pen-Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 39 here with a beautiful sunrise as clouds move in. That was the reddish sunrise I have seen in a long time, stunning! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 40-50dBz along Parrs ridge! What is happening there?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, frd said: That was the reddish sunrise I have seen in a long time, stunning! Light snow plus reddish sunrise here. 34.7° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Snowing hard now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Went from a few mangled pellets to big fluff. Accumulating on everything. M0.1" Reisterstown. Legit Parrs Ridge death band setting up! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 40-50dBz along Parrs ridge! What is happening there?!? Radar lighting up in NW Carroll too. Someone is going to get two to three inches of snow from this north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Unless we get some serious back building (and fast!), looks like it ends sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Snowing hard now. Barely here. Very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Barely here. Very light. Only way to describe this "event" is goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Winds are from the s/se, and we're fighting dry air? Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 No more sleet. All snow. Light, but everything is turning white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Only way to describe this "event" is goofy. Radar says should be like 1/2-1” per hour rates. Look outside light snow. lol. It does seem to be picking up. Think we will get the goods for at like an hour or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Radar lighting up in NW Carroll too. Someone is going to get two to three inches of snow from this north of I-70. But is it all snow in that heavier batch? snowing nicely here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 34f humidity 54% dew point 19f (skies to the southeast fire engine red over top and all points west, southwest, northwest, north, and northeast solid clouds and dark) Light snow car topper in progress grounds whitening Let's Go!!!! Total snowfall accumulation trace to 0.01" Let's go let the snow times begin!!! I do think it's coming!! Patience is key I am counting on something in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Gorgeous morning in Carroll County 20260117_074807.heic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ok it’s finally dumping snow. Heavies have arrived. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Radar says should be like 1/2-1” per hour rates. Look outside light snow. lol. It does seem to be picking up. Think we will get the goods for at like an hour or two. Suddenly snowing heavy. The most temperamental storm ever! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The Hanover and map crew should get an hour or two of heavy stuff. 1-2” I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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