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1/3-4 Return of the North Trend?

bncho

By bncho,
in Mid Atlantic

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bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted

Euro shows a dusting for DC and GFS keeps shifting north every model run. Might be a surprise event and things are trending in that direction. h5 starting to look more conducive for a small event. Let's reel this in.

Screenshot 2026-01-01 at 1.42.48 PM.png

Screenshot 2026-01-01 at 1.42.58 PM.png

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

Maybe a pedantic clarification, but the Euro isn't necessarily showing snow here because of a north trend.  What it is doing is swinging a more potent vort through OH into our region which helps with the lift needed for a minor accumulation.  The other models don't have that feature or are weaker.

euro500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.4a22700b193fb9d634b9f5e5cf95bace.pngGFS500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.e177eebb44f506f899f4e54616fb4497.pngNAM500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.22bdafddedd8245526419c1fd81640cb.png

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Maybe a pedantic clarification, but the Euro isn't necessarily showing snow here because of a north trend.  What it is doing is swinging a more potent vort through OH into our region which helps with the lift needed for a minor accumulation.  The other models don't have that feature or are weaker.

euro500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.4a22700b193fb9d634b9f5e5cf95bace.pngGFS500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.e177eebb44f506f899f4e54616fb4497.pngNAM500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.22bdafddedd8245526419c1fd81640cb.png

Absolutely. I made a post about this yesterday. I love that you incorporated the word pedantic though lol.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

LWX AFD from this afternoon on the "threat" 

Meanwhile, stalled front to the south will try to lift back to the
north Friday evening into Saturday. A wave of low pressure looks to
traverse this boundary Saturday morning with a secondary wave of low
pressure lifting north and east of the Deep South toward the
VA/NC coast Saturday night into Sunday. With residual high
pressure to the north and east, cold air will be available for
some wintry precipitation to occur across portions of the
forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Main
question is if phasing can occur, which remains highly
uncertain. Right now, the highest confidence for wintry wx
would be along and south of I-66/US-50 and east of the Blue
Ridge mountains. We`ll continue to monitor this threat to see if
the northward trend amongst the guidance continues. If so, some
travel disruptions are possible late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night, especially on elevated and untreated surfaces.
More at weather.gov/lwx/winter.
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bncho

bncho

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Posted
1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Maybe a pedantic clarification, but the Euro isn't necessarily showing snow here because of a north trend.  What it is doing is swinging a more potent vort through OH into our region which helps with the lift needed for a minor accumulation.  The other models don't have that feature or are weaker.

euro500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.4a22700b193fb9d634b9f5e5cf95bace.pngGFS500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.e177eebb44f506f899f4e54616fb4497.pngNAM500hv.us_ma.thumb.png.22bdafddedd8245526419c1fd81640cb.png

Thank you SO MUCH for this clarification, this helped me understand what was going on. To weenie eyes however, this is a north trend, hence the name. :lol:

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stormy

stormy

Posted
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34 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

A forum built for tracking weather and mostly snow is making a thread for an event in the short range even if the odds are long? Heartbreaking. How will we ever recover our credibility 

You have your head in the right place.

"How will we ever recover our Credibility"

This event is a long shot and has elevation written all over it.

There was a time when a thread would not have been created. This time, after the encouragement of headliners, it was created.

American Weather is treading into very dangerous territory.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

While waiting for the 18z GFS I looked at all the 12z runs, and only the ICON has the sharp NS shortwave and digs it southward like the Euro, but it isnt quite as sharp, is positively tilted and doesnt generate any real lift up our way.

eta- 18z ICON is sharper with the wave but still pos tilted and doesnt induce anything at the surface.

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, stormy said:

You have your head in the right place.

"How will we ever recover our Credibility"

This event is a long shot and has elevation written all over it.

There was a time when a thread would not have been created. This time, after the encouragement of headliners, it was created.

American Weather is treading into very dangerous territory.

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is blah.  Gets precip up to Southern MD and away she goes (east)

It is stronger and sharper with the NS vorticity but digs it southward a bit too late. Still a minor improvement at the surface and a trend towards the Euro.

1767517200-yv3p1a1aOOQ.png

1767517200-2kG9ifMsvR8.png

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Wintrest

Wintrest

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stormy said:

You have your head in the right place.

"How will we ever recover our Credibility"

This event is a long shot and has elevation written all over it.

There was a time when a thread would not have been created. This time, after the encouragement of headliners, it was created.

American Weather is treading into very dangerous territory.

This makes sense.

If it weren’t for… threats/possibilities… like these, and potential tracking of such, I’m not sure this forum would have the life it still does. Any hope of winter weather gets me pumped, and every dash is a dagger. I feel like a junkie. True to form, I keep coming back.

That said, this place is an alternative to the mainstream, and given many of the posts, one that you can learn something from. Some posts are leaning social media-esque, but what can you reasonably expect these days? Same posters spout legit knowledge on the board in the next post, so the value is clear. I recall lurking in the 2009-2010 winter, and yeah it’s a different landscape, but with much of the same crowd.

Perhaps the point about thread creation is legit, but we’ve been in a shitty long term pattern that we still do not understand for a good while.

I feel that there will be a turning point at which time some decent winter weather returns to the Mid-Atlantic, and hopefully that doesn’t take too much longer. Climate is like that, until it isn’t. It’s exciting to see the short term changes though, and that’s why I still enjoy his place. 

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Paleocene

Paleocene

Posted
Posted
Just now, bncho said:

18z GFS continues the trend of baby steps in the right direction. Interesting...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh54_trend.gif

Lol I appreciate your optimism and usually I am optimistic too. But that low pressure near the outer banks is barely budging north. I hope the northern stream comes in hot and heavy, and perfectly timed. I'll be glad if I get a dusting.

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bncho

bncho

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3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Lol I appreciate your optimism and usually I am optimistic too. But that low pressure near the outer banks is barely budging north. I hope the northern stream comes in hot and heavy, and perfectly timed. I'll be glad if I get a dusting.

i am a weenie lol i need to hold onto ANY hope i can :P

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

GEFS is close enough to something to stay interested especially SE of DC 

Like the op, the GEFS has been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5.

0z run compared to the most recent 18z run-

1767506400-5Zd8bMxGrqg.png

1767506400-eCnbtYf2vXg.png

 

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