Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

We got less than 1” QPF from both big storms combined here. Severe drought and in serious need of one of these events to not dry up 48 hours before 

[WXNewton]

Euro back south even more than 06z. Mostly rain for everyone. Low was weaker and didn't pull as much cold air into the system. Not a terrible look, just need the High stronger and the low a little stronger. It's pretty much looking like a Miller A rainstorm at this point. If this trend keeps up that low may track right across the Gulf.

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Euro back south even more than 06z. Mostly rain for everyone. Low was weaker and didn't pull as much cold air into the system. Not a terrible look, just need the High stronger and the low a little stronger. It's pretty much looking like a Miller A rainstorm at this point. If this trend keeps up that low may track right across the Gulf.

Its cutting back rain amounts for sure. Don't like that

[WXNewton]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Its cutting back rain amounts for sure. Don't like that

EPS cut back too, still just a hair over an inch though. 6z EPS-12z EPS

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

EPS cut back too, still just a hair over an inch though. 6z EPS-12z EPS

Couple more cuts and its .25-.50. 

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Couple more cuts and its .25-.50. 

Where's the north trend?

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Couple more cuts and its .25-.50. 

Sounds familiar this year 

[suzook]

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sounds familiar this year 

Been happening to my neck of the woods for over a year now. We need the precip badly 

[wncsnow]

34 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Where's the north trend?

That's so 2010's

[wncsnow]

March can be a dry and windy month so we need all the rain we can get. 

[BornAgain13]

What's weird is the EPS still shows snow in VA but the OP says no. 

[Tullioz]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

What's weird is the EPS still shows snow in VA but the OP says no. 

There are only a handful of ensemble members showing snow in south-central Virginia. Of those, there are a few outliers showing significant amounts of snow, and they are skewing the snowfall mean.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

53 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

There are only a handful of ensemble members showing snow in south-central Virginia. Of those, there are a few outliers showing significant amounts of snow, and they are skewing the snowfall mean.

That's because there is a lack of precip now. It's not from lack of cold air up there.

[Tullioz]

30 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That's because there is a lack of precip now. It's not from lack of cold air up there.

If you look at the ensembles, you will notice there's also a lack of cold air at the surface and aloft to support snow in south-central Virginia. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Winter is over for the piedmont 

[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Winter is over for the piedmont 

Definitely looks that way for the foreseeable future. 

[BornAgain13]

Cmc and its ensembles still wants to paste Virginia. Its definitely off of its rocker. Nothing else shows that.

[yotaman]

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Winter is over for the piedmont 

And coastal areas by the looks of it.

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Winter is over for the piedmont 

What is your definition of “winter is over”? I read this often from various people as if it’s a black and white thing but without them explaining what they mean. Thanks.

[suzook]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What is your definition of “winter is over”? I read this often from various people as if it’s a black and white thing but without them explaining what they mean. Thanks.

No snow

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What is your definition of “winter is over”? I read this often from various people as if it’s a black and white thing but without them explaining what they mean. Thanks.

My definition is any of the following criteria being met. Of course no winter meets these criteria consecutively, but the end of winter in my book is whenever the last date of one of these criteria is met 

1) snow/sleet accumulation 1"+

2) ice accumulation more than a light glaze

3) high temps in the 30s for 3+ days in a 5 day stretch

 

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, suzook said:

No snow

Thank you.

 Y’all predicting no more snow in y’all’s locations down in the SE US with it looking mild next week and with it getting late are obviously very reasonable predictions. But do you expect any more hard freezes? That and cold in general are obviously part of winter, too. Cold without snow is a lot more common than cold w/snow. Even in this warmer era, an average of 4 freezes in March occurs. Do you expect any March freezes in ATL? TIA

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

55 minutes ago, suzook said:

No snow

 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

1 minute ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

 

Never say never in March. 

[BILL IN BAMA]

My definition of Spring commencing, at the latitude of North Alabama, is when the suns declination reaches 10 degrees south, and the daily mean temperature rises back up to 50 Fahrenheit( 60 for a high and 40 for a low). Any snow, ice, or bitter cold around or after reaching this criterion during the season change would be termed a "Spring snow or Spring cold snap" as opposed to a "winter" event.

Of course someone in a more northerly latitude may not agree with this assessment because they stay much colder despite a high sun angle. And vice versa for lower latitudes.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

I will never forget in late March 1983 or 82 when we got 8 inches of snow or so in Wilson, NC. No way you can 100% say winter weather is over in NC/Upstate and VA. I know that is a long shot but come on. Certainly not 100% over!

[jpbart]

In Columbia SC spring is when you turn the A/C on two or three days a week.  Summer is when it's on 24/7, typically starts in May and lasts well into October.

[NorthHillsWx]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

What is your definition of “winter is over”? I read this often from various people as if it’s a black and white thing but without them explaining what they mean. Thanks.

Sustained cold/BN temps and frequent daytime highs in 40s. I’m sure we’ll have freezes into april but that’s not unusual spring weather here. 

[Jmoon]

Same ole Clemson team year in and year out in basketball. Always gives their fans false hope but it shouldn't. Look at their schedule every year and see who they have played. It should be no surprise but I will be a Clemson fan when they play the holes in chapel hole. 

[eyewall]

On 2/10/2026 at 8:34 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

Winter is over for the piedmont 

I would generally agree. Wake County got screwed this year and that is what we will remember.