SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Continuing off of @Terpeast's trend GIF from yesterday: I need the mother of god meme for this. What an insanely Tight cluster! And that’s at 5.5 days!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO My floor is set 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Ugh why must we be in the bullseye so far out? Such a tease! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, baltosquid said: Ugh why must we be in the bullseye so far out? Such a tease! Yes and no, this one feels a little different. I’ll of course wait til Thursday or Friday to really feel confident if it keeps this look but I am liking the euro ai ensemble look a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Euro has been locked in now for what, 3 runs in a row? Ensembles getting in board and GFS and other models coming around to. This feels different. And today is Monday already. We are not that far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 24 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Continuing off of @Terpeast's trend GIF from yesterday: Can't take credit for that gif, someone else made it and I replied to it. But yeah... that is heckuva trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Those low heights at the core of this have to be a record for southern mid Atlantic, wild. 5-6 days out. A lot can go right or wrong, it’s a very tactile setup, not many events progress like the H5 of this. As posters on our discord mentioned, Blizzard of 66’, March 2001 are similar type events where the west side of a tpv dropped south and created a coastal. This is happening in primo winter time so… still, all options on the table at this range. . On Jan. 30, 1966, the center of the storm was near New Bern, N.C. during late afternoon when I received 3 inches of snow in 1 hour with a surface temperature of +5. I will look forward to future runs but the 00z surface reflection looks too far offshore for heavy snow over Virginia. This 500 mb position would be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 24hr snowfall mean ending 144hrs (more to come after run finished) from 6z Eps. Notably, the 6hr panel from 144hrs was the best that indicated a real explosion of snowfall and more to come. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Operational (top) and Eps 5H anomaly at 144hrs off 6z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Operational (top) and Eps 5H anomaly at 144hrs off 6z. Got the memeber low positions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Got the memeber low positions? Leaning west 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Pretty decent consistency between 0z and 6z too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just want to leave this here lol. Here’s the gfs from the same range for this past event. Ya lol 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: And it wasn’t even done yet 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Just want to leave this here lol. Here’s the gfs from the same range for this past event. Ya lol Good point! Adjustments incoming (that's a given for sure lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 EPS-AI much more onboard now 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, Climate175 said: Good point! Adjustments incoming (that's a given for sure lol). I've been hardly paying attention. I thought this was just some unicorn day 9 thing. I just realized this morning it's for THIS weekend. We're tracking right out of the gate. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, bncho said: EPS-AI much more onboard now Strong signal. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Pretty decent consistency between 0z and 6z too. RUN to run consistency is important, regardless of which model is being looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: That's stormtracker's job to say FOLKS, he must be exhausted from tracking the last storm. That's the word for the 6z Euro! A man’s gotta sleep! Here’s to good times today! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Operational (top) and Eps 5H anomaly at 144hrs off 6z. Thats a vertically stacked system at 6z or very close. Someone mentioned jan 25, 2000. I cant unsee it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I've been hardly paying attention. I thought this was just some unicorn day 9 thing. I just realized this morning it's for THIS weekend. We're tracking right out of the gate. Exactly. Just about 120 hrs from the forecasted precip (snow) entering the region. Not a guarantee, but the fact this next one could be a Miller A looks promising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, Climate175 said: Strong signal. Delicate balance due the Northern jet, hence keep expectationas in check, but the potential is really off the charts for this possible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A man’s gotta sleep! Here’s to good times today! I hope we hear that word "Folks" so many times today lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Exactly. Just about 120 hrs from the forecasted precip (snow) entering the region. Not a guarantee, but the fact this next one could be a Miller A looks promising. I always looks at when the storm forms lol. It gives me another 24 hour so technically we are under a 100 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The 144 panel is end of days stuff for nyc metro, 1 inch of liquid precip in 6 hours, 30-50 mph winds. Of course not our area but close to us. Would expect blizzard warnings should anything close to this verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: The 144 panel is end of days stuff for nyc metro, 1 inch of liquid precip in 6 hours, 30-50 mph winds. Of course not our area but close to us. Would expect blizzard warnings should anything close to this verify. Gimme, gimme, gimme 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A man’s gotta sleep! Here’s to good times today! You wanna create the thread now? You created a thread for last storm around this time! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Hopefully our margin of error is higher than typical with this cold entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts