January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DDweatherman]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

GFS is a step back from 0z and 6z for sure. 

To reply to MYSELF, at about this range the gfs started trending away from the storm we just had then had to spend a whole day coming back. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

BAM says that the GFS is fulla shit like it normally is and it'll correct NW,

Yes, yes it will.  

[LeesburgWx]

As long as the euro holds, that is what matters at the moment. If the GFS and euro were switched right now, we all know we wouldn't even be on here right now reading...

[stormtracker]

Yeah, so far GFS is much slower getting that s/w to dive and go neg

[Nomz]

12z monday GFS was the one that came in probably 250 miles south of the other models right

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

To reply to MYSELF, at about this range the gfs started trending away from the storm we just had then had to spend a whole day coming back. 

Yeah I'm sure it seems like weenisim to say that now because it didn't show what we want, but literally...it completely crapped the bed until 24 hrs before the previous storm. Hard to trust it in either direction

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Nomz said:

12z monday GFS was the one that came in probably 250 miles south of the other models right

I think it was or Tuesday perhaps, which is equal to where we are now. 

[midatlanticweather]

GFS is always bad until it shows what we want! :D! We need alignment though for confidence! Will be glued to Euro 12z. I would say to get a new Medium to Long Range thread, but we are in the final week of January and if we have a storm, I say do a storm thread and new med/long range at the same time.. just my 2 cents. 

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

As long as the euro holds, that is what matters at the moment. If the GFS and euro were switched right now, we all know we wouldn't even be on here right now reading...

Yeah, Id rather have the Euro/AIs in our camp rather than the other way around.   Would be nice if GFS or another model suite confirmed tho, ngl

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

GFS is always bad until it shows what we want! :D! We need alignment though for confidence! Will be glued to Euro 12z. I would say to get a new Medium to Long Range thread, but we are in the final week of January and if we have a storm, I say do a storm thread and new med/long range at the same time.. just my 2 cents. 

 

Gfs hasn’t got a system right in forever. 3 storms ago had a monster storm for that Thursday system… wrong, last system it had it staying south the longest of models.. wrong. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Id rather have the Euro/AIs in our camp rather than the other way around.   Would be nice if GFS or another model suite confirmed tho, ngl

ICON made a pretty good move towards the euro as did its ensembles. Anyone have the 0z UK? 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Id rather have the Euro/AIs in our camp rather than the other way around.   Would be nice if GFS or another model suite confirmed tho, ngl

If euros continue to hold gfs will catch on by Monday. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Id rather have the Euro/AIs in our camp rather than the other way around.   Would be nice if GFS or another model suite confirmed tho, ngl

12z ICON suite made a big step towards the Euro solution. Hopefully we can get the CMC or UKIE on board!

[stormtracker]

GFS is trying tho, just gets started too late it seems.  Just a wee bit of difference

[StormyClearweather]

Last Monday's 12Z GFS for this past weekend's storm:

 

But yeah, would prefer every model agreed we's a gettin' a blizzy. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gfs hasn’t got a system right in forever. 3 storms ago had a monster storm for thag Thursday system… wrong, last system it had it staying south the longest of models.. wrong. 

it was the last to catch on to a mixing event by a long ways for yesterdays storm 

[stormtracker]

GFS might try to do something dumb with this last minute shit

[stormtracker]

Late bloomer 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS dumb

Fixed 

[Lucy Pull]

GFS actually makes a pretty good recovery. Won’t be euro but looks like it will end up west of its 6z

[bncho]

GFS is better!

[stormtracker]

So basically all models agree there's gonna be an intense low over or close to us.    So, we're starting off good here

[LeesburgWx]

Lmao, the GFS still tries to make it happen. I mean I guess this is good news

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Id rather have the Euro/AIs in our camp rather than the other way around.   Would be nice if GFS or another model suite confirmed tho, ngl

I'm honestly not sure if I want the GFS in the "good" camp at this point. It's interesting to look at, but unless it's part of an overall consensus in hitting us, I'd rather it be south/east right now.

[Paleocene]

GFS is fine, just late. Honestly the 500mb charts re: ridge and position of the vorts don't look that different to me but I'm a newb. 

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So basically all models agree there's gonna be an intense low over or close to us.    So, we're starting off good here

It's really intense in general. Like, there's sub-980 potential with this

[frd]

GFS is known to push the baroclinic boundary too far off the East Coast at long range during the winter months. We may be seeing this now only for it to correct in 24 to 72 hours.   

[stormtracker]

That thing is a intense ball just crawling on the GFS

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

That thing is a intense ball just crawling on the GFS

It’s getting closer. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is trying tho, just gets started too late it seems.  Just a wee bit of difference

12z GFS op has a weird little trough out west that dampens the western ridge. Euro and Icon do not have have.