jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 We absolutely can fail with this, but this seems like something we can reel in.So.. we can fail but we can also maybe not. Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 49 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: If I'm nitpicking...that WeatherNext model is a bit too offshore. I know it shows digital blue over us - but it is a good ways out to seat on that plot. We'll see how this week of model tracking pans out! Hey, nitpick away...yesterday's storm had nitpicking things tbat messed with it, lol Now I will say that the previous WeatherNext image somebody shared was even further off-shore...so this was a decent step forward, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, jayyy said: So.. we can fail but we can also maybe not. Sounds about right I mean, a fail could be that it hit the Carolinas and misses it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm honestly quite intrigued about the late week potential. It has a legitimate upside (even B-word) potential for this area. Is that Biblical or Blizzard. Maybe both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 4 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 JV model running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Negnao said: The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 For the next day or two I would lean more weight towards the ensembles, both AI and traditional. If we start seeing a better clustering for the coastal low, and perhaps it climbing the seaboard more, then it's likely game on. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Hmmmm... 13z NBM 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrapinwx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 ICON-EPS mean took a big jump west. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Ridge looking better out west on 48h GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmmm... 13z NBM Are those amounts considered a robust signal at this time range for the blend of models, aka NBM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Fwiw, 108 h5 on 12z AIGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Early on, but to me the big thing seems to be how this ridge out west is handled, too far east and this thing swings out to sea. This is not a comment on a specific model, just an overall observation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, yoda said: Fwiw, 108 h5 on 12z AIGFS 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmmm... 13z NBM The NBM at this range gives heavy weight to the 00Z EPS, so this is exactly what I'd expect to see. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 AI GFS better at h5 but it won't do it this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, high risk said: The NBM at this range gives heavy weight to the 00Z EPS, so this is exactly what I'd expect to see. Thank you for that knowledge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, Negnao said: The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Nothing noteworthy on the GFS yet...similar to 6z..some noise level changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We absolutely can fail with this, but this seems like something we can reel in. So pretty much like any storm around here? Got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Ridging oiut west a little flatter so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 GD I am tired from last weeks tracking and this weekends shoveling. But here I am about to do the same thing this week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I can already tell this GFS won't be the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18 minutes ago, Negnao said: The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 GFS is a step back from 0z and 6z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 So far, doesnt look like the GFS at H5, so not too hopeful at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 BAM says that the GFS is fulla shit like it normally is and it'll correct NW, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, bncho said: I can already tell this GFS won't be the one If this storm is legit gfs won’t get it right till 48hrs out anyway. Did absolutely awful last system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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