January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[jayyy]

We absolutely can fail with this, but this seems like something we can reel in.

So.. we can fail but we can also maybe not. Sounds about right

[Maestrobjwa]

49 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If I'm nitpicking...that WeatherNext model is a bit too offshore. I know it shows digital blue over us - but it is a good ways out to seat on that plot. We'll see how this week of model tracking pans out!

Hey, nitpick away...yesterday's storm had nitpicking things tbat messed with it, lol Now I will say that the previous WeatherNext image somebody shared was even further off-shore...so this was a decent step forward, imo

[Negnao]

The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

So.. we can fail but we can also maybe not. Sounds about right

I mean, a fail could be that it hit the Carolinas and misses it. 

[J.Mike]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm honestly quite intrigued about the late week potential. It has a legitimate upside (even B-word) potential for this area.

Is that Biblical or Blizzard.

Maybe both. 

[anotherman]

The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 

[bncho]

JV model running

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

For the next day or two I would lean more weight towards the ensembles, both AI and traditional. If we start seeing a better clustering for the coastal low, and perhaps it climbing the seaboard more, then it's likely game on.

[yoda]

Hmmmm... 13z NBM

 

[Terrapinwx]

ICON-EPS mean took a big jump west


.

[peribonca]

Ridge looking better out west on 48h GFS

[frd]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hmmmm... 13z NBM

 

Are those amounts considered a robust signal at this time range for the blend of models, aka NBM ? 

[yoda]

Fwiw, 108 h5 on 12z AIGFS

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Early on, but to me the big thing seems to be how this ridge out west is handled, too far east and this thing swings out to sea. This is not a comment on a specific model, just an overall observation.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Fwiw, 108 h5 on 12z AIGFS

 

126

 

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hmmmm... 13z NBM

     The NBM at this range gives heavy weight to the 00Z EPS, so this is exactly what I'd expect to see.

[bncho]

AI GFS better at h5 but it won't do it this time around

[yoda]

Just now, high risk said:

     The NBM at this range gives heavy weight to the 00Z EPS, so this is exactly what I'd expect to see.

Thank you for that knowledge

[AlexD1990]

14 minutes ago, Negnao said:

The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 

[stormtracker]

Nothing noteworthy on the GFS yet...similar to 6z..some noise level changes

[TSSN+]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We absolutely can fail with this, but this seems like something we can reel in.

So pretty much like any storm around here? Got it 

[stormtracker]

Ridging oiut west a little flatter so far

[Thewiledcard]

GD I am tired from last weeks tracking and this weekends shoveling. But here I am about to do the same thing this week...

[bncho]

I can already tell this GFS won't be the one

[paxpatriot]

18 minutes ago, Negnao said:

The fail scenario here is probably a Boxing Day type situation. 

 

[DDweatherman]

GFS is a step back from 0z and 6z for sure. 

[stormtracker]

So far, doesnt look like the GFS at H5, so not too hopeful at the moment

[bncho]

BAM says that the GFS is fulla shit like it normally is and it'll correct NW,

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

I can already tell this GFS won't be the one

If this storm is legit gfs won’t get it right till 48hrs out anyway. Did absolutely awful last system.