January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Continuing off of @Terpeast's trend GIF from yesterday:

I need the mother of god meme for this.  What an insanely Tight cluster! And that’s at 5.5 days!!!

[Weather Junkie]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

My floor is set

[baltosquid]

Ugh why must we be in the bullseye so far out? Such a tease!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Ugh why must we be in the bullseye so far out? Such a tease!

Yes and no, this one feels a little different.  I’ll of course wait til Thursday or Friday  to really feel confident if it keeps this look but I am liking the euro ai ensemble look a lot. 

[LeesburgWx]

Euro has been locked in now for what, 3 runs in a row? Ensembles getting in board and GFS and other models coming around to. This feels different. And today is Monday already. We are not that far out. 

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Continuing off of @Terpeast's trend GIF from yesterday:

Can't take credit for that gif, someone else made it and I replied to it. But yeah... that is heckuva trend!

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Those low heights at the core of this have to be a record for southern mid Atlantic, wild. 5-6 days out. A lot can go right or wrong, it’s a very tactile setup, not many events progress like the H5 of this. As posters on our discord mentioned, Blizzard of 66’, March 2001 are similar type events where the west side of a tpv dropped south and created a coastal. This is happening in primo winter time so… still, all options on the table at this range.




.

On Jan. 30, 1966, the center of the storm was near New Bern, N.C. during late afternoon when I received 3 inches of snow in 1 hour with a surface temperature of +5.

I will look forward to future runs but the 00z surface reflection looks too far offshore for heavy snow over Virginia. This 500 mb position would be interesting!

[mitchnick]

24hr snowfall mean ending 144hrs (more to come after run finished) from 6z Eps.

Notably, the 6hr panel from 144hrs was the best that indicated a real explosion of snowfall and more to come.

[mitchnick]

Operational (top) and Eps 5H anomaly at 144hrs off 6z.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Operational (top) and Eps 5H anomaly at 144hrs off 6z.

Got the memeber low positions? 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Got the memeber low positions? 

Leaning west

[Benjamn3]

[mitchnick]

Pretty decent consistency between 0z and 6z too.

[TSSN+]

Just want to leave this here lol. Here’s the gfs from the same range for this past event. Ya lol

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

And it wasn’t even done yet 

[Climate175]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just want to leave this here lol. Here’s the gfs from the same range for this past event. Ya lol

Good point! Adjustments incoming (that's a given for sure lol).

[bncho]

EPS-AI much more onboard now

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

Good point! Adjustments incoming (that's a given for sure lol).

I've been hardly paying attention. I thought this was just some unicorn day 9 thing. I just realized this morning it's for THIS weekend. We're tracking right out of the gate.

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS-AI much more onboard now

Strong signal.

[stormy]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty decent consistency between 0z and 6z too.

RUN to run consistency is important, regardless of which model is being looked at.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

That's stormtracker's job to say FOLKS, he must be exhausted from tracking the last storm. That's the word for the 6z Euro!

A man’s gotta sleep!    Here’s to good times today!

[Ralph Wiggum]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Operational (top) and Eps 5H anomaly at 144hrs off 6z.

Thats a vertically stacked system at 6z or very close. Someone mentioned jan 25, 2000. I cant unsee it.

[Climate175]

10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I've been hardly paying attention. I thought this was just some unicorn day 9 thing. I just realized this morning it's for THIS weekend. We're tracking right out of the gate.

Exactly. Just about 120 hrs from the forecasted precip (snow) entering the region. Not a guarantee, but the fact this next one could be a Miller A looks promising. 

[frd]

9 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

Strong signal.

Delicate balance due the Northern jet, hence keep expectationas in check, but the potential is really off the charts for this possible event. 

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

A man’s gotta sleep!    Here’s to good times today!

I hope we hear that word "Folks" so many times today lol. 

[Ji]

Exactly. Just about 120 hrs from the forecasted precip (snow) entering the region. Not a guarantee, but the fact this next one could be a Miller A looks promising. 

I always looks at when the storm forms lol. It gives me another 24 hour so technically we are under a 100

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The 144 panel is end of days stuff for nyc metro, 1 inch of liquid precip in 6 hours, 30-50 mph winds.  Of course not our area but close to us.  Would expect blizzard warnings should anything close to this verify. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The 144 panel is end of days stuff for nyc metro, 1 inch of liquid precip in 6 hours, 30-50 mph winds.  Of course not our area but close to us.  Would expect blizzard warnings should anything close to this verify. 

Gimme, gimme, gimme

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

A man’s gotta sleep!    Here’s to good times today!

You wanna create the thread now? You created a thread for last storm around this time!

[konksw]

Hopefully our margin of error is higher than typical with this cold entrenched.