January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

ICON stuck at 156 , but players are all there

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON stuck at 156 , but players are all there

Did you mean the GFS?

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you mean the GFS?

No. ICON.  GFS not in range yet

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

No. ICON.  GFS not in range yet

Wait...I just saw the end if the ICON on Pivotal (the two waves were there but didn't interact through the end of the run)

[stormtracker]

Stuck on 156 for me

[peribonca]

GFS at 150 starting to revvvv it's engine

[NorthArlington101]

Stuck on 156 for me

WxBell at 180 - I’m not smart enough for 500mb but it’s burying it in the gulf so don’t think the ICON wants in this go.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

WxBell at 180 - I’m not smart enough for 500mb but it’s burying it in the gulf so don’t think the ICON wants in this go.

GFS has players on the field.  Dont know if it's gonna get it together like 18z tho

[stormtracker]

yeah, looks to slide S and E.   Im just glad it's still there

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

yeah, looks to slide S and E.   Im just glad it's still there

....how far s and e? Asking for a friend 

[stormtracker]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

....how far s and e? Asking for a friend 

Like off the coast s and E

[NorthArlington101]

yeah, looks to slide S and E.   Im just glad it's still there

Piece over the GL is pretty different. Might be mucking it up

Snows a lil bit from that alone. Emphasis on little

[AlexD1990]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Like off the coast s and E

I know I just reacted sad, but then again given what happened this week, I'm okay with it. What I wouldn't give for a storm like what this one was projected to be last Sunday..

[NorthArlington101]

[mattie g]

100% OK with that run. We get smoked one run, we whiff well south and east on another…yeah, that works for now.

[Ji]

32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

we are so back!

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

While one has a better chance of winning a USSR state-sponsored lottery than getting a single GFS deterministic run to verify at 10 days out, the 0z GEFS isn't exactly self-assured of a coastal low solution either.  It hints at one, but that's about it.

Lotta time yet between now and early Feb to go bowling for Miller A's, but some of the biggest storms had such strong signals that the models locked onto them 7+ days out and remained remarkably consistent until 0-day.

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS likes Feb. 6. Not too far away for Feb. 1/2 either, but miss verbatim. 
 

[jayyy]

AIFS likes Feb. 6. Not too far away for Feb. 1/2 either, but miss verbatim. 
 

A big ole shaft headed straight for Boston

[NorthArlington101]

EURO and CMC don’t do it. See if it’s an off run. Plenty of time

[Amped]

Euro gives us a Lil clipper after Sunday's storm and thats it. Seems we can do better with to weeks below freezing.

[Ji]

Vanishing act except for the gfs ai

[RevWarReenactor]

Climo says we waste the rest of the cold and just have high heating bills and this storm to show for it. What are the chances of a 2010 redux? That is like a once in 100 year type thing at best.

[mitchnick]

Something will pop back up. We'll still be in a favorable MJO phase. And then we've got HM on our side.

[CAPE]

Low is offshore on the EPS but still some precip(snow) for the region on the mean.

Overall the ridge position/orientation needs to change some from what is currently depicted so the trough/shortwave energy can dig and become neutral a little further west.

 

[HighStakes]

Midweek disturbance thing still possible.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Midweek disturbance thing still possible.

Its been showing up on the GEFS and EPS the last few runs too. Looks like a 1-2, maybe 3" potential on the op runs. A difference in location between the GFS and the Euro(further sw/south).

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Overall the ridge position/orientation needs to change some from what is currently depicted so the trough/shortwave energy can dig and become neutral a little further west.

Some long range models, and forecasters, are calling for a very active and cold mid Feb period, despite a warm up prior to this period. 

Maybe we do not even get a true warm up, as the East will be the last to moderate.  

[frd]

Chris Martz@ChrisMartzWX

·7h 

 

Folks, I don’t hype anything. But what’s coming down the pike this week is REAL DEAL cold.  

 

After our fancy winter storm exits, blob after blob of Arctic air associated with the tropospheric polar vortex will rotate through the Lower 48. Subzero wind chills will reach the Gulf Coast.

 

Single digit temperatures can be expected in northern Louisiana and Mississippi on both Monday and Tuesday mornings.

 

Washington, D.C. may not get above freezing for the next 7-10 days. For perspective, the last time D.C. spent a week in subfreezing temperatures was from December 16 to 25, 1989 (10 days). That was 36 years ago.

 

It has happened only 17 times since 1872, and only two of those stretches have been in the last 85 years. Bundle up, kiddos.  

[frd]

Looks like more - NAO in Feb.  

 

 

Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx

 

 

MJO could make move toward warmer mid-late December route (orange line below) or it could continue its pathway favored by subseasonal models (blue line). Meanwhile, stratospheric warming in North Atlantic should favor more -NAO blocking for February.