January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looking further down the road, do we see another wind reversal in Feb?

 

 

I think this is what @40/70 Benchmark was alluding to in his seasonal outlook—kudos to him.

[diatae]

13 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Tonight is going to make @diatae go hard and grab a McDonald's McFlurry.  

Yall ready?!?

I'm late and scrolled every page. Mid day models are cooking. Double M&Ms please.

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What time do you think we need these models to hold through to start getting legit excited? My benchmark is inside tomorrow 12z runs as The Storm That Shall Not Be Named fell apart five days before it occurred so I'll wait till tomorrow. 

I’d say 00z overnight wed/thurs am.

for hecs level results, we’re banking on a phase between nrn and srn stream waves out west. We haven’t even sampled that atmosphere yet, so we are playing a dangerous game right now by getting excited over the cmc and ukie.

Ngl, I’m briefly envisioning those results imby, but let’s be smart about this.   (Generally speaking, not directed at you specifically)

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I’d say 00z overnight wed/thurs am.

for hecs level results, we’re baking on a phase between nrn and srn stream waves out west. We haven’t even sampled that atmosphere yet, so we are playing a dangerous game right now by getting excited over the cmc and ukie.

Ngl, I’m briefly envisioning those results imby, but let’s be smart about this. 

Honestly I'm not aiming for an HECS. Give me 8" right now and I'll sign.

[Nomz]

24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No Words

If you would consult the graph

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I’d say 00z overnight wed/thurs am.

for hecs level results, we’re banking on a phase between nrn and srn stream waves out west. We haven’t even sampled that atmosphere yet, so we are playing a dangerous game right now by getting excited over the cmc and ukie.

Ngl, I’m briefly envisioning those results imby, but let’s be smart about this.   (Generally speaking, not directed at you specifically)

I'm more so speaking from a we get the 0z Euro run where its a good foot of snow area wide. I would love a HECS but for now I'm discounting that happening. 

[bncho]

Just now, Nomz said:

If you would consult the graph

Already a better poster than BlueHat. A true weenie!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

Honestly I'm not aiming for an HECS. Give me 8" right now and I'll sign.

Well that’s you, speak for yourself. It’s like @Bob Chill says, you don’t get the opportunity much…so when it comes you try and make the most.

If I get 8” imby I’ll be thrilled, but I’d take 20 if it was possible within reason. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

If you would consult the graph

My Greatest Creation. Absolutely legendary pull 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, diatae said:

I'm late and scrolled every page. Mid day models are cooking. Double M&Ms please.

Side note...my young boy works at McDonalds. Hot take: get the McFlurry add double hot fudge. Thank me later. I dont eat at that shithole but the McFlurry with hot fudge is the one thing I do still get.

[caviman2201]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Well that’s you, speak for yourself. It’s like @Bob Chill says, you don’t get the opportunity much…so when it comes you try and make the most.

If I get 8” imby I’ll be thrilled, but I’d take 20 if it was possible within reason. 

Yall act like you have any control over what happens lol

[bncho]

Euros are coming out soon. God bless America. @stormtracker, we're ready when you are!

[LeesburgWx]

It's just so hard going from 24-30" outputs to more realistic outcomes of only 8"

[GreyHat]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’d say 00z overnight wed/thurs am.

for hecs level results, we’re banking on a phase between nrn and srn stream waves out west. We haven’t even sampled that atmosphere yet, so we are playing a dangerous game right now by getting excited over the cmc and ukie.

Ngl, I’m briefly envisioning those results imby, but let’s be smart about this.   (Generally speaking, not directed at you specifically)

Agree, I actually stated 12z Thursday before getting too excited 

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

It's just so hard going from 24-30" outputs to more realistic outcomes of only 8"

If the euro shows an area wide 8-12 here in a few I’ll be ecstatic. The model has a history of trashing our fun and shitting in the punch bowl like no other. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Give me 8" right now and I'll sign.

@ravensrule 

 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euros are coming out soon. God bless America. @stormtracker, we're ready when you are!

Nah America sucks unless you like the gfs. Go everyone else lol 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, GreyHat said:

Agree, I actually stated 12z Thursday before getting too excited 

 

We have PTSD, a lot of trauma for many of us depending on storm/storm chance since 2016. MBY had one big one in 2021 that was localized but for the most part my kids have never seen a storm over 6”

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Nah America sucks unless you like the gfs. Go everyone else lol 

Snow god needs to bless the American models because they are absoute crap!

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euros are coming out soon. God bless America. @stormtracker, we're ready when you are!

Where is Ji? Did he faint or is he adding clickbait to his FB?

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Honestly I'm not aiming for an HECS. Give me 8" right now and I'll sign.

You're planning on getting surgery?. 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’d say 00z overnight wed/thurs am.

for hecs level results, we’re banking on a phase between nrn and srn stream waves out west. We haven’t even sampled that atmosphere yet, so we are playing a dangerous game right now by getting excited over the cmc and ukie.

Ngl, I’m briefly envisioning those results imby, but let’s be smart about this.   (Generally speaking, not directed at you specifically)

Yea 12z Thursday is my go/no go for this event. I'd much rather deal with suppression than worrying about something cutting. With such a fresh, strong push of cold air coming I don't think we have to worry about this cutting too much this time.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

It's just so hard going from 24-30" outputs to more realistic outcomes of only 8"

We would all take 8 in a heartbeat.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

We would all take 8 in a heartbeat.

My bench mark for this is a 6" - 10" event. Would be the biggest snowfall for me since moving back to Maryland in August 2016.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

We would all take 8 in a heartbeat.

I would even take 8" if it meant us getting a MECS.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We would all take 8 in a heartbeat.

That would still be my biggest snowfall in 10 years! If that would be a "fail" scenario, then that would be a heck if a consolation prize.

[brooklynwx99]

i'd be getting excited down here. this has all the hallmarks of a mid-Atlantic MECS (up by me is less certain for sure)... ample moisture, strong 250mb jet, some phasing potential, antecedent Arctic air, and confluence in place

[stormtracker]

Not sure why I feel like a FG kicker in a tie game with the Super Bowl on the line

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I would even take 8" if it meant us getting a MECS.

lol I’m dead 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Not sure why I feel like a FG kicker in a tie game with the Super Bowl on the line

No stress.