January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

Once we get to 84-96 hours, I’m sure we’ll see a reshuffling of models. No idea which way it’ll go. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Once we get to 84-96 hours, I’m sure we’ll see a reshuffling of models. No idea which way it’ll go. 

Yea there seems to be a deamplifixstion trend in the 84 to 96 hr time-frame. If we can survive that this time, then we're golden.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Once we get to 84-96 hours, I’m sure we’ll see a reshuffling of models. No idea which way it’ll go. 

Seeing a lot more faith in the AI side now...and I want to believe...but I dunno man.   This should be a really good case study

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

After 12z run probably.  Gotta get rid of the superstitious studs dawg.  Embrace the thrill!  

ok ok...people are scared.  I'll give yall till after 12z tomm?   I don't want the storm to see the thread until then because that will be before it's already on the way.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Seeing a lot more faith in the AI side now...and I want to believe...but I dunno man.   This should be a really good case study

Agreed. Especially since they are still 'learning as we go'. 

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Seeing a lot more faith in the AI side now...and I want to believe...but I dunno man.   This should be a really good case study

I followed the storm up in New England this past weekend.  Both AIs were extremely persistent with bringing snow into southern New England when most guidance, including the euro were pretty far out to sea.  Good study for our area.

 

hell they even named their storm thread “rise of the machines” lol

[soadforecasterx]

Both Ai models are the ones that locked in snow for us when all other models did not. From what i remember those locked in around that window 84-96 hours. They maybe the way to go now. Believe @Ellinwood can speak to that. 

[clskinsfan]

NAM extrapolation is a weenie game. But I do like the position of the PV on the 12 Z run. Would not have been suppressed imo. 

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Seeing a lot more faith in the AI side now...and I want to believe...but I dunno man.   This should be a really good case study

I think the point earlier in the thread that the AI moves toward the mean, and has problems with the anomalous was a great point. It's only as good as the data used to train it. 

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ok ok...people are scared.  I'll give yall till after 12z tomm?   I don't want the storm to see the thread until then because that will be before it's already on the way.

Well at least we have to start a Part 2 of the January long range thread?

[bncho]

Alright, Randy. Start us off. What's the ICON doing?

[Miss Pixee]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Just blend all guidance and our region is the cross hairs.  We may finally get the region wide storm we’ve needed for about a decade. 

PEPCO and WASH GAS will sure be happy with their new rate hikes. 

[LP08]

Icon through 108 is less suppressive over the ne and the Baja closes low is further east than 6z and 0z

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM extrapolation is a weenie game. But I do like the position of the PV on the 12 Z run. Would not have been suppressed imo. 

Back in the day, we had the old E/E rule (Eta/Euro). What do we call it if the AI models had this basic non-suppressed solution correct? AI rule? ",The Answer" rule? "We talkin' 'bout practice" rule (iykyk)?

[Ji]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Once we get to 84-96 hours, I’m sure we’ll see a reshuffling of models. No idea which way it’ll go. 

i have a chart i use--it works pretty well

204 out--pure fantasy. Weenie stuff

192 hours--it becomes a threat

132 hours-it becomes a legit threat

84-132 hours. the graveyward for storms. Many storms never survive this window

48-84 hours.  fantasy Nam Range. Minor shifts start happening with big implications. This is where we go from 29 and snow to 33 and rain but the the storm is still there. Just shifted north or south

48-24 hours. Minor adjustments...can still get screwed if we are on the edge

24-0 hours--you want to see good last minute trends here. Could be the difference between 6 inches and 3 inches

0 hours-GFS and NAM range

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Alright, Randy. Start us off. What's the ICON doing?

I barely check that one.  I don't get it any faster on SV.  Imma go look now tho!

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Icon through 108 is less suppressive over the ne and the Baja closes low is further east than 6z and 0z

Yeah. It is lining us up at 114. Already tapping the Gulf. Should be a hit. We are right on the battle line.

[Disc]

ICON with a more favorable SW progression so far. Should not be as suppressed.

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

There are two possible outcomes for this event:
1. A major ice storm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north get a major snowstorm. (Euro AI, UKMET, GFS AI, Euro)
2. A major snowstorm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north receive little to nothing. (GFS, CMC)

What do we know of each model?
The Euro AI is often locked onto an event inside D5 and is often deadly inside that range, but can be locked onto an incorrect solution, only to fold 48 hours before the event (credit to @high risk). It also often has a QPF bias. 
The Euro often tends to overamp low pressure systems, but it also tends to hold back energy in the Baja. It also often has a QPF bias.
The GFS tends to show more suppressive, progressive solutions, and often tends to verify NW.
The CMC has a major cold bias, and tends to overdo Arctic HPs. It also, generally, has a suppressive bias, but it is less prominent than the GFS.
The UKMET tends to struggle on thermals, often being too warm. It also tends to overamp systems.
Since the GFS AI is new, I don't know much about it.

Although more operational models (that I'm aware of; I have no idea what Google's model outputs) support the northern solution, ensembles have been trending colder and snowier towards the southern solution over the last 24-36 hours. This is why I am skeptical to declare victory for the northern solution just yet.

It would be easy to go with the Euro AI, just because that has been the best performing operational this winter inside D5. However, a major caveat to this is that the upcoming HP may be so anomalous that it hasn't received enough training data to output the correct solution, just due to its inexperience (credit to @WxUSAF). This should be a good test for the AI Euro.

Now, it's too early to declare anything, but I am leaning towards the northern solution. 1050 HPs are extremely rare and often overdone in setups like these (credit @Terpeast), and I don't think it'll be able to suppress it enough. However, if a ultra-strong HP does pan out, the Euro AI may have a greater probability of being wrong.

Stay tuned...

OT, but the way you wrote this and provided the source credit is a testament to your writing skills and what you’ve been learning in school. Absolutely impressed. Please keep up with your scholastic work and never ever stop learning. If you ever wanted to be a meteorologist, I’d love to become a mentor for you. You have a lot of positive attributes that you should be damn proud of for being in 9th grade. Major kudos. 
 

Now back to the regularly scheduled hemming and hawing over models at 5-7 day leads 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Disc said:

ICON with a more favorable SW progression so far. Should not be as suppressed.

Ya not as bad but still looks like cut off gets stuck. 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, the S/W definitely coming all out...doesn't look as suppressive, but still can't say if it's coming right for us

[bncho]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

OT, but the way you wrote this and provided the source credit is a testament to your writing skills and what you’ve been learning in school. Absolutely impressed. Please keep up with your scholastic work and never ever stop learning. If you ever wanted to be a meteorologist, I’d love to become a mentor for you. You have a lot of positive attributes that you should be damn proud of for being in 9th grade. Major kudos. 
 

Now back to the regularly scheduled hemming and hawing over models at 5-7 day leads 

Man, in a few years, I would absolutely LOVE for you to be my teacher. That would be amazing.

[yoda]

Its decent... but better for C VA and S VA at 138

[Disc]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya not as bad but still looks like cut off gets stuck. 

Yep, doesn't bring it all across like the Euro, but certainly a step in the right direction. I call that a win.

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya not as bad but still looks like cut off gets stuck. 

actually, yeah, you're right.  I thought it was coming all out...

[TSSN+]

Icon minor hit. Most of the energy gets left but pushed out more this run to get a small hit. 

[SnowenOutThere]

28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

After 12z run probably.  Gotta get rid of the superstitious studs dawg.  Embrace the thrill!  

Real question is who starts the thread 

[bncho]

It's a modest hit. Much better than 0z.

[yoda]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Real question is who starts the thread 

Have Randy start it

[clskinsfan]

ICON is a huge improvement. Moved towards the AI models. Game tiem!