January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[caviman2201]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This man using likely 6 days out.  Bold. 

Only thing likely is that it won't end up like any model is currently depicting

[snowmagnet]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

This is the general flavor of the storm i'm getting right now, if anybody wants to correct me they can go ahead.

Scenario 1 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that drops 4"+ of snow. (likely)
Scenario 2 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive the brunt of the system and receives <4" of snow. (possible)
Scenario 3 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that briefly starts as snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. (unlikely)
Scenario 4 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive anything impacts from the system and receives no snow. (very unlikely)

Wrong.  Scenario 1.  HECS.  It's the only option.  It's been 10 years.  We are due. 

[snowmagnet]

By the way, I feel this is kinda legit since Bob Chill is gracing us with his presence.  

 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Wrong.  Scenario 1.  HECS.  It's the only option.  It's been 10 years.  We are due. 

We're overdue !

[Steve25]

3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Wrong.  Scenario 1.  HECS.  It's the only option.  It's been 10 years.  We are due. 

Would be almost 10 years to the date

[winter_warlock]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

By the way, I feel this is kinda legit since Bob Chill is gracing us with his presence.  

 

When bob chill comes around shit just got real!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Steve25 said:

Would be almost 10 years to the date

Would be 26 years to the date of the Jan 25th 2000 storm

[Bob Chill]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

12/19/09 was a relatively high ratio storm, no mixing no dry slots. 12-14:1 thereabouts. 

I think the second Feb storm in 2010 in my yard was up there too. Mar 2014 had a high ratio one as well iirc. They aren't impossible but expecting over 10:1 based on kuchera progs seems to fall short far more often than not. 

[wxdude64]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

12/19/09 was a relatively high ratio storm, no mixing no dry slots. 12-14:1 thereabouts. 

Right at 10/11 to 1 here-

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I think the second Feb storm in 2010 in my yard was up there too. Mar 2014 had a high ratio one as well iirc. They aren't impossible but expecting over 10:1 based on kuchera progs seems to fall short far more often than not. 

Yeah the second Feb 2010 storm was a biggie too!! And It came right after the bliz of Feb 5th 2010... Man that week was the best winter week I ever had!!

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

That’s my guy

 Mine too.   Gotta love Clint!!!

[Solution Man]

Feeling this one. We are gonna score this weekend.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Feeling this one. We are gonna score this weekend.

I'm cautiously optimistic..    very cautious...only cause we've been burned before ! 

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I’d say scenario 3 would be the least likely at this point. 

Yeahh I agree..i don't think with the cold dome  that ur gonna see a lot in the way of mixing

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm optimistic, given the favorable teleconnections and the fact that we're seeing a decent amount of agreement from multiple ensembles.

[Weather Will]

JB is on board. He mentions the Google Grpah....what is that?

[csnavywx]

Still going to be a day or two until the cutoff underneath the western ridge (that opens up and serves as the trigger) is well resolved. Good to great setup for it as long as the TPV doesn't overwhelm and the wave actually opens up in a timely fashion.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Disc said:

18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday.

 

I am hugging the Euro for rain for south Texas! Nice snow developing for the Mid Atlantic!

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the second Feb storm in 2010 in my yard was up there too. Mar 2014 had a high ratio one as well iirc. They aren't impossible but expecting over 10:1 based on kuchera progs seems to fall short far more often than not. 

The craziest ratio event I can think of right off the top of my head happened in 2014. Least a greater than 4" event.

[Duca892]

So when we say Mid Atlantic in this forum does this include NJ/PA? And is general consensus that this does not get squashed? 

[Heisy]

I am hugging the Euro for rain for south Texas! Nice snow developing for the Mid Atlantic!

Not that it matters since it’ll be different at 00z, but I don’t think the euro was coming any farther N than it was at the end of its run. My guess is a light-mod snow event if it played out post 144. There was a shortwave sitting over the lakes that was about shunt everything E. We’ll see how the N stream eventually orients itself.

Here is 18z euro vs the Ai to better illustrate…




.

[Eskimo Joe]

I know this is for Philly, but this just underscores the upside potential for this general area in the next 7 days.

 

 

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

So when we say Mid Atlantic in this forum does this include NJ/PA? And is general consensus that this does not get squashed? 

Anytime a 'suppression' is mentioned the further north you are the greater the chance of it happening.

[wxmvpete]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

JB is on board. He mentions the Google Grpah....what is that?

He is referring to Google AI model that you can view on the ECMWF charts: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202601181200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601250000

[Amped]

Is February 94 showing up in the analogs yet? Ill take that but 100 miles south. 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0209.php#picture

[Dabuckeyes]

22 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

He is referring to Google AI model that you can view on the ECMWF charts: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202601181200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601250000

“Insert another Clint Eastwood gif to represent everyone’s face while they try to understand the map”

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I know this is for Philly, but this just underscores the upside potential for this general area in the next 7 days.

 

 

And in this case what's good for Philly is probably good for us 

[Eskimo Joe]

From @wxmvpete:

 

 

[Solution Man]

26 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

He is referring to Google AI model that you can view on the ECMWF charts: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202601181200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601250000

[SnowenOutThere]

Personally, I think that as this storm gets to within hour 120 (tomorrow 18z to 0z maybe 12z) that's when we all got to lock in. I look forward to making a long winded analysis once that happens but until then its not worth it (personally)... yet.