January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I forgot, 98% of yous guys want to be in the bullseye at this range, so yeah...

Better to be in the bullseye than not

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Better to be in the bullseye than not

welcome to the forum! our best posters are ji and greyhat. they provide the most insight. be sure to listen to them. 

[Ji]

Nevermind...that too looks like it's gonna get crushed.   12z theme so far is suppressive.  can't wait to see the new theme at 18z

Amazing how the gfs avoids digital blue. Goes from cutter to suppressed without even giving us the pleasure of one run

[TSSN+]

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

welcome to the forum! our best posters are ji and greyhat. they provide the most insight. be sure to listen to them. 

Oh god. Let’s see how this person posts. Finger hovering over mute botton.

[nw baltimore wx]

22 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Better to be in the bullseye than not

Everyone is a little frustrated by lack of snow. Welcome to the forum. 

[StormyClearweather]

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

 

Great sign for us! Thanks for posting.  Let’s KEEP the the EPS on board with that GEFS look plz Lordy. 

[Interstate]

Wow. The boundary is shifting around 100 of miles. Insane. 

[DMAC98]

33 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Better to be in the bullseye than not

A week out?

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

 

Lol love the cut off there in Central Alabama and Georgia on the GFS.

[Steve25]

36 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Better to be in the bullseye than not

Better for gooning over the fantasy snow maps maybe

[SnowenOutThere]

Wait have people been treating the GFS/Euro OP play by plays for a storm over a week out as actual forecasting? I thought we were all doing it as a fun bit of entertainment/learning opportunity. Everybody here should know that the OPs are effectively useless 7+ days out and only become moderately (still defer to ens) from 7-5 days out before taking over within 4 days of the storm. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wait have people been treating the GFS/Euro OP play by plays for a storm over a week out as actual forecasting? I thought we were all doing it as a fun bit of entertainment/learning opportunity. Everybody here should know that the OPs are effectively useless 7+ days out and only become moderately (still defer to ens) from 7-5 days out before taking over within 4 days of the storm. 

People cancel winter here in November. What do you expect? 

[high risk]

FWIW, the AIGFS and ECAIFS runs this morning have some remarkable similarities in the Eastern U.S. for next Sunday, with a high-impact winter storm, even impacting our area.     These two AI systems have been bouncing around a lot, so appropriate caution is warranted, but them both agreeing today catches my eye.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Crazy uncle UKIE with a much less suppressive look.  Looping to 168 the precip is on a decent trajectory for us and the high pressure is closer to Montreal than overhead. 

[TSSN+]

Euro AI was a thing of beauty. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

FWIW, the AIGFS and ECAIFS runs this morning have some remarkable similarities in the Eastern U.S. for next Sunday, with a high-impact winter storm, even impacting our area.     These two AI systems have been bouncing around a lot, so appropriate caution is warranted, but them both agreeing today catches my eye.  

I may be misremembering but didn't they do quite poorly with today's event though? 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I may be misremembering but didn't they do quite poorly with today's event though? 

I think they both actually did better, they never went out to sea with it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Cold, dry, get your dehumidifiers and skin care routine prepped.

 

 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro AI was a thing of beauty. 

And this map is 10:1. Definitely better ratios, especially north of southern VA.

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wait have people been treating the GFS/Euro OP play by plays for a storm over a week out as actual forecasting? I thought we were all doing it as a fun bit of entertainment/learning opportunity. Everybody here should know that the OPs are effectively useless 7+ days out and only become moderately (still defer to ens) from 7-5 days out before taking over within 4 days of the storm. 

I think most here get it, but there are a few who live and die by models post.   Glad you realize what the deal is with pbp.   When we get under 100, we can start getting serious..under 72, rev up the engine

[stormtracker]

Euro is better for the storm...pic in a sec.  It STILL slides the good stuff to our south but nothing like GFS

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And this map is 10:1. Definitely better ratios, especially north of southern VA.

Temps starting at 20 in dc and dropping throughout the storm ending in the low teens.

[poolz1]

Both Ai 12z runs bring the Baja low out for the 25th event.  Both buried that low just like the GFS, at least in the last 4 runs. Another good medium range test for both of them.    

 

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

The Euro AI is an 18-24" snowstorm, assuming 10:1 ratios are too low for the northern parts of the crew.

[stormtracker]

I'm actually not mad at the Euro this far out.

Has a juiced up storm just to our south and plenty of cold air.  I'd roll the dice on this one.   Common theme is there is storm on the map, we got the could..no way we're gonna nail down the extent of the have or have nots rn

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I;m actually not mad at the Euro this far out.

Nor I. Both AI's are hits, which provide some comfort negating the need for Southern Comfort at this point.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And this map is 10:1. Definitely better ratios, especially north of southern VA.

It has temps in the mid teens throughout the event so we would definitely be getting some help from ratios.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Nomz said:

Better to be in the bullseye than not

Being in the bullseye 200 hours out never works out