January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Saw early on that shit might be a problem...BUT...200 hours, blah blah.   We went from a suppressive cold to riding the line baby!

I'd rather ride the line with hope than have a full suppression.  If that makes sense 

[bncho]

The advertised pattern from January 25 to February 10 is why we like Ninos so much. It's super easy to score. The STJ is always active, so there are so many juiced up waves that can tap into cold air to score. Hopefully this 2-3 week stretch is a preview of 2026-27. I'm really excited.

[winter_warlock]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Alright..gonna make some breakfast and consume some morning alcohol.  See yall later

 As always thanks for the PBP Randy!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, bncho said:

The advertised pattern from January 25 to February 10 is why we like Ninos so much. It's super easy to score. The STJ is always active, so there are so many juiced up waves that can tap into cold air to score. Hopefully this 2-3 week stretch is a preview of 2026-27. I'm really excited.

 I agree, with that STJ active we will have lots of chances bro.    1 or 2 are bound to hit for us!

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

The advertised pattern from January 25 to February 10 is why we like Ninos so much. It's super easy to score. The STJ is always active, so there are so many juiced up waves that can tap into cold air to score. Hopefully this 2-3 week stretch is a preview of 2026-27. I'm really excited.

You’ll be running this place one day. Keep up the great work. All hail Bitchin Nachos! 

[stormtracker]

As we wait for the Euro, pro tip.  NEVER try to make a Bloody Mary with Tequila. 

[winter_warlock]

Would be real nice if that storm on 1-25 was a lot like the storm exactly 26 years ago on 1-25 in 2000 !! 

[Scraff]

Just now, stormtracker said:

As we wait for the Euro, pro tip.  NEVER try to make a Bloody Mary with Tequila. 

Eeeewww. Just no. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

As we wait for the Euro, pro tip.  NEVER try to make a Bloody Mary with Tequila. 

 Point definitely taken!! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

The advertised pattern from January 25 to February 10 is why we like Ninos so much. It's super easy to score. The STJ is always active, so there are so many juiced up waves that can tap into cold air to score. Hopefully this 2-3 week stretch is a preview of 2026-27. I'm really excited.

But in a Nino we dont always have the cold air with the NS being more lax. We can thank this Nina for the abundance of arctic air around, imho.

[Eskimo Joe]

36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the ice storm some were honking about.

Woah

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As we wait for the Euro, pro tip.  NEVER try to make a Bloody Mary with Tequila. 

That's a Bloody Maria.

[bncho]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But in a Nino we dont always have the cold air with the NS being more lax. We can thank this Nina for the abundance of arctic air around, imho.

That’s exactly why 09-10 was so good. That whole entire season had blocking so there was no issue with cold air.

[jayyy]

But in a Nino we dont always have the cold air with the NS being more lax. We can thank this Nina for the abundance of arctic air around, imho.

So we need a la niño?

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

That’s exactly why 09-10 was so good. That whole entire season had blocking so there was no issue with cold air.

Were you alive for 09-10??

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Were you alive for 09-10??

Nah

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, Icon had potential at the end of its 12z run.

[stormy]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

That’s exactly why 09-10 was so good. That whole entire season had blocking so there was no issue with cold air.

09-10 was a once in a lifetime pattern. Nino with +1.0 - +1.5 ,   NAO -1+,  AO Dec.09  -3.4, Feb. 10  -4.2......................  Will we ever see this again??

[MountainGeek]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Were you alive for 09-10??

[VA Mad Man]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As we wait for the Euro, pro tip.  NEVER try to make a Bloody Mary with Tequila. 

Yeah. Kept it simple with a hot toddy and eggs. Tea with honey, Jameson whiskey, and Grand Marnier

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Nah

I was about to say...it sounds like you've done your homework kid  And only a natural-born weenie would be well versed on a storm that happened before he existed

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Nah

You sweet summer child.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I was about to say...it sounds like you've done your homework kid  And only a natural-born weenie would be well versed on a storm that happened before he existed

He’s here because of those storms

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Solution Man said:

He’s here because of those storms

Haha But wait...if he's 14 that would've been the raging +AO 2011-12 winter, lol

[stormtracker]

Euro also a whiff for that 22nd thing 

on to the next potential..

[stormtracker]

So, for some reason I get the precip maps waayy before the H5, so that's all I'm using for the moment to see things.   Won't know how it got there until the lag catches up

[stormtracker]

Welp..Euro is a warmish light precip thing and quick...vs 12z GFS for 180 period

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Haha But wait...if he's 14 that would've been the raging +AO 2011-12 winter, lol

Yes, but we won’t speculate, he’s our @bncho

[stormtracker]

Something else seems to be going on or getting ready to out west, but again..I can't see H5 maps that match with the precip maps that are well ahead..so can't really see what's going on upstairs to get a feel for anything.  

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Something else seems to be going on or getting ready to out west, but again..I can't see H5 maps that match with the precip maps that are well ahead..so can't really see what's going on upstairs to get a feel for anything.  

What hour are you on now?