January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big time -AO on 0z GFS ensembles hr96-300. probably <-2 std. 

180-192hr to me looks like big ice somewhere as there is arctic blocking/ridging, and the PV underneath of it near the Hudson Bay and SE Canada, then a ridge riding over it in the Mid-Atlantic from south-based+NAO. -AO's are our best index pattern for snow though, so it's possible it's snow north of DC/Balt in the normal climate zones and ice south.. still way far ways out.. it can go either way but with a <-2 AO less chance it's rain, imo. 

You nailed it Chuck, if it materializes.

-2 to -4 AO signals are quite often precursors to significant winter weather events.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Individual ensemble members are all over the place in the medium range (0z). It's been really rare to have a wall of strong High pressures in the Great Lakes/southern Canada, while a high qpf low cuts into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. Call it a decadal pattern. Let's see if we can break it! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS is frigid Jan 27-29! 

[mitchnick]

I love how the Euro completely pulled the threat it was advertising at 150hrs at 12z and 144hrs at 18z on last night's 0z run (it's not there on 6z either.)

So I  feel even more confident than yesterday in saying the Euro fooked us again. Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New 3-4 week CPC keeps us cold to mid February

"Winter before an El Nino the next year" has been working out great this Winter so far. Here it is for February:

[Weather Will]

If there is cold air, there is always hope!!!!!

[stormy]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I love how the Euro completely pulled the threat it was advertising at 150hrs at 12z and 144hrs at 18z on last night's 0z run (it's not there on 6z either.)

So I  feel even more confident than yesterday in saying the Euro fooked us again. Lol

Thursday  12" snow on 1-25

Yesterday, snow disappeared but 0 F. on 12-25.....   I said, no-way.

This morning, Euro has been re-born to 18 F. on 12-25......  LOL again

 

 

[Terpeast]

There is indeed ensemble support for jan 25-27 and again 28-30. Don’t know why some are saying otherwise. Jan 22 is the only threat that doesn’t have much support. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Terpeast said:

There is indeed ensemble support for jan 25-27 and again 28-30. Don’t know why some are saying otherwise. Jan 22 is the only threat that doesn’t have much support. 

Those ensemble mean snowfall maps @mitchnick posted were the best I've seen since 

Spoiler

late February 2025

 

[stormy]

14 minutes ago, stormy said:

Thursday  12" snow on 1-25

Yesterday, snow disappeared but 0 F. on 12-25.....   I said, no-way.

This morning, Euro has been re-born to 18 F. on 12-25......  LOL again

 

 

I always liked Christmas, but make that 1-25!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Jeez, the mood swings and tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth in this place!!!  You'd think we've gone from a HECS to a 70 degree wall-to-wall torch for the rest of the month given the tone of some posts!  Yeah, I know, should be used to it by now in all the years I've been on this forum.  But still.  I checked some of the models and read some of the better posts in here and...honestly, you cannot ask for a much better placed to be at this point.  As several others have said, and I agree, the potential and look starting around Jan. 22-24ish is great!  Obviously, that's no guarantee we score anything (the usual caveat statement!).  However, every model has been showing at least one and in many cases more than one solid event from next weekend through the end of the month.  The ensembles likewise look solid (I think @mitchnick posted the snow means earlier?) and have for a little while now.  This isn't some one-off where a stray deterministic run dumps on us one time and then it's gone forever and ensembles showing nothing.  This is a fairly consistent indication of waves running into solid cold air...maybe at different times each model cycle but it keeps showing up and it's not being can-kicked.  It's kind of like how @Bob Chill says...sometimes you see great looking ensemble means but "under the hood" there's not much there when you should see some good hits, which raises red flags; other times, you see great looking ensembles and there ARE good hits in there along with the same from deterministic models.  So yeah, I gotta like what's under the hood here!

[jayyy]

New 3-4 week CPC keeps us cold to mid February

"Winter before an El Nino the next year" has been working out great this Winter so far. Here it is for February:

If we can manage a BN or even slightly BN February, (which would be pretty wild considering November - January was also BN) coupled with the STJ waking up… we could see a monster before the pattern eventually breaks down. Obviously all speculation but the ingredients seem to be coming together for the January 24 - February 10 timeframe to possibly be very special.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

If we can manage a BN or even slightly BN February, (which would be pretty wild considering November - January was also BN) coupled with the STJ waking up… we could see a monster before the pattern eventually breaks down. Obviously all speculation but the ingredients seem to be coming together for the January 24 - February 10 timeframe to possibly be very special.

Yeah I was concerned about pac energy breaking apart the +pna and torching canada, but recent ens runs stop short of doing that and still maintain western ridging. Canada will warm up yes, but we may stay NN/BN in the east and during this window that’s all we need. 

[Terpeast]

Euro weeklies trended much better for us in feb even! It wants to keep the good pattern going through feb until losing it around 2/23

[stormtracker]

Avengers assemble!  GFS running

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Avengers assemble!  GFS running

@stormtracker = captain america

[MountainGeek]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Avengers assemble!  GFS running

You giving us a PBP today? 

[jayyy]

Yeah I was concerned about pac energy breaking apart the +pna and torching canada, but recent ens runs stop short of doing that and still maintain western ridging. Canada will warm up yes, but we may stay NN/BN in the east and during this window that’s all we need. 

Been pretty remarkable to watch models back off long range depictions for 5+ straight months now. Can’t remember the last time we saw such a thing - especially in our favor. LR models continue to show our PAC pattern getting obliterated, they drop a deep trough into the PAC NW and pump a SE ridge downstream.. and it just never materializes. We end up losing the favorable PAC for a short time with some transient warmups and then things reload. Over and over again. Not sure how ENSO will impact any of this as we lose the Niña… but generally speaking, if we can get the STJ going with the 500mb setup we’ve had in place most of winter, the next 3 weeks has the *POTENTIAL* to be the best period we’ve had since 14-15

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z EPS is frigid Jan 27-29! 

We should probably organize an area-wide search to find the real Chuck and identify who tied him up and is posting under his name.

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

You giving us a PBP today? 

You know it! 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Been pretty remarkable to watch models back off long range depictions for 5+ straight months now. Can’t remember the last time we saw such a thing - especially in our favor. LR models continue to show our PAC pattern getting obliterated, they drop a deep trough into the PAC NW and pump a SE ridge downstream.. and it just never materializes. We end up losing the favorable PAC for a short time with some transient warmups and then things reload. Over and over again. Not sure how ENSO will impact any of this as we lose the Niña… but generally speaking, if we can get the STJ going with the 500mb setup we’ve had in place most of winter, the next 3 weeks has the *POTENTIAL* to be the best period we’ve had since 14-15

Nailed it. Temps have not been an issue, it’s just moisture or lack there of. Hopefully that changes in the next 2-3 weeks. 

[poolz1]

ICON looked poised to deliver some cold smoke.  That is one heck of an arctic HP.  Just need something with a little pep to attack.

[jayyy]

Nailed it. Temps have not been an issue, it’s just moisture or lack there of. Hopefully that changes in the next 2-3 weeks. 

It’s certainly felt like winter all season. Now let’s get some moisture up in here!!!!

[stormtracker]

So far, GFS is slightly wetter out west with the approaching "cold front' event...but doesn't look like anything to get hype about so far.  Just a light ribbon of precip along the front

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, GFS is slightly wetter out west with the approaching "cold front' event...but doesn't look like anything to get hype about so far.  Just a light ribbon of precip along the front

Is this for tomorrow? Where are we talking about that? Can we get some threads lol. Gfs looks like tomorrow is congrats NYC.

[jayyy]

Is this for tomorrow? Where are we talking about that? Can we get some threads lol. Gfs looks like tomorrow is congrats NYC.

Tomorrow would be in the 16-19th thread

[stormtracker]

If anything, the frontal stuff is drier than 6z

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Is this for tomorrow? Where are we talking about that? Can we get some threads lol. Gfs looks like tomorrow is congrats NYC.

my bad.  I'm talking for the 22/23

[stormtracker]

Ok, that's out of the way with nothing...we look out west.  H5 is (shocker) a bit different than the 6z GFS.   Seems positive if it can traverse across the country like that...but...our luck, don't bet on it

[stormtracker]

If that s/w just off of Cali don't get crushed by the UL of death, or if it doesn't decide to cut off and hang back there, this could be interesting