January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big time -AO on 0z GFS ensembles hr96-300. probably <-2 std. 

180-192hr to me looks like big ice somewhere as there is arctic blocking/ridging, and the PV underneath of it near the Hudson Bay and SE Canada, then a ridge riding over it in the Mid-Atlantic from south-based+NAO. -AO's are our best index pattern for snow though, so it's possible it's snow north of DC/Balt in the normal climate zones and ice south.. still way far ways out.. it can go either way but with a <-2 AO less chance it's rain, imo. 

You nailed it Chuck, if it materializes.

-2 to -4 AO signals are quite often precursors to significant winter weather events.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Individual ensemble members are all over the place in the medium range (0z). It's been really rare to have a wall of strong High pressures in the Great Lakes/southern Canada, while a high qpf low cuts into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. Call it a decadal pattern. Let's see if we can break it! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS is frigid Jan 27-29! 

[mitchnick]

I love how the Euro completely pulled the threat it was advertising at 150hrs at 12z and 144hrs at 18z on last night's 0z run (it's not there on 6z either.)

So I  feel even more confident than yesterday in saying the Euro fooked us again. Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New 3-4 week CPC keeps us cold to mid February

"Winter before an El Nino the next year" has been working out great this Winter so far. Here it is for February:

[Weather Will]

If there is cold air, there is always hope!!!!!

[stormy]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I love how the Euro completely pulled the threat it was advertising at 150hrs at 12z and 144hrs at 18z on last night's 0z run (it's not there on 6z either.)

So I  feel even more confident than yesterday in saying the Euro fooked us again. Lol

Thursday  12" snow on 1-25

Yesterday, snow disappeared but 0 F. on 12-25.....   I said, no-way.

This morning, Euro has been re-born to 18 F. on 12-25......  LOL again

 

 

[Terpeast]

There is indeed ensemble support for jan 25-27 and again 28-30. Don’t know why some are saying otherwise. Jan 22 is the only threat that doesn’t have much support. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Terpeast said:

There is indeed ensemble support for jan 25-27 and again 28-30. Don’t know why some are saying otherwise. Jan 22 is the only threat that doesn’t have much support. 

Those ensemble mean snowfall maps @mitchnick posted were the best I've seen since 

Spoiler

late February 2025