January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

oh no we can kicking till Feb:) 

It’s just freaking incredible 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

Where is he active? Used to read his stuff. His blue sky account doesn't have anything about what you mention.

A long time ago he had some sort of anonymity issue over something. 

[TSSN+]

Gfs with two decent snows on it this run. Be curious to see Gefs if they light up more. 

[mitchnick]

Surprised no one mentioned (assuming I  didn't miss it) the end of all 3 ensembles from 12z. Incredible agreement and great, great pattern. Here's the Eps with links to the other 2.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs with two decent snows on it this run. Be curious to see Gefs if they light up more. 

Looked like a 3rd one was lining up at the end too.

[87storms]

If you like cold, you will love the 18z gfs.

[Ji]

If you like cold, you will love the 18z gfs.

That was a lot of rain/mix for all that cold lol

[87storms]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

That was a lot of rain/mix for all that cold lol

Gotta start somewhere lol

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Can I kick you into February? 

Noooo. Ji adds charm to this forum lol

[jayyy]

Noooo. Ji adds charm to this forum lol

That’s one way to put it

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

That was a lot of rain/mix for all that cold lol

Odd, wasn't it? We always get pure snow every winter. Must be another Gfs error.

[cbmclean]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Surprised no one mentioned (assuming I  didn't miss it) the end of all 3 ensembles from 12z. Incredible agreement and great, great pattern. Here's the Eps with links to the other 2.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew.  Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer.  Pretty though.

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew.  Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer.  Pretty though.

-EPO/+PNA actually leans dry, but it’s also a big dog pattern with that high-latitude blocking. With those AN precip anomalies in our region and the TN valley, I would be more inclined to think Jan 25-Feb 10 has big dog potential rather than cold and dry potential. 

[NorthArlington101]

pretty interesting AIFS ens for Sunday-Monday imo. Way more interested than it ever was for Thursday. 

GEPS really liked it too

[TSSN+]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

pretty interesting AIFS ens for Sunday-Monday imo. Way more interested than it ever was for Thursday. 

GEPS really liked it too

Each run getting closer to a little coastal

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

If you like cold, you will love the 18z gfs.

Yessss

[DMAC98]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

pretty interesting AIFS ens for Sunday-Monday imo. Way more interested than it ever was for Thursday. 

GEPS really liked it too

Yeah none of the ensemble suites had much of anything for the 16th so the fact that there's at least a modest signal for the following period is at least somewhat intriguing.

I think it's also worth mentioning the CMC/GEM has a system in the area by that time as well, when it was never interested in the 16th iirc

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Each run getting closer to a little coastal

Fwiw, 18z Eps gives us an inch and operational just shy of it.