January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Just now, baltosquid said:

You tellin' me this isn't doing shit for us?

Only thing I can see is too much interference 

[bncho]

These models show incredible h5 looks but end up with nothing. What's new around the Mid-Atlantic?

[87storms]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

You tellin' me this isn't doing shit for us?

We need the gom to wake up.

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Canadian...meh

Looks OK to me.

[baltosquid]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Only thing I can see is too much interference 

I guess. But with a cutoff low like that, just hard to accept. Oh well. Surface is resolved last.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Lol. Thats like saying the bears are going to come back and win this game. Not happening.


.

You sure about that? Bwahaha!

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

You sure about that? Bwahaha!

Came back to find this, hahaha

[ravensrule]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

You sure about that? Bwahaha!

I guess we’re getting hammered. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

In H5 I trust. Models are still all over the place. Hopefully we'll see them lock in on an HECS in a couple of days. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I guess we’re getting hammered. 

You know I am good at that. Just not in weather anymore apparently.

[Ji]

Ukie is close, but finds a way out with little to nothing. 

As Jb says…we don’t live at 500mb. All the models look amazing at upper levels and none have a snowstorm

[Ji]

In H5 I trust. Models are still all over the place. Hopefully we'll see them lock in on an HECS in a couple of days. 

lol. Historical East coast suck

[NorthArlington101]

Taking zero credit for this analysis but what I’m hearing is that our low is developing too late and rapidly occluding - meaning we aren’t pulling in enough moisture in time. Solution could be a little more dig. 

[baltosquid]

Just to emphasize the big shift from 12z. Also see the deemphasis of the other lows.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

In H5 I trust. Models are still all over the place. Hopefully we'll see them lock in on an HECS in a couple of days. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Just to emphasize the big shift from 12z. Also see the deemphasis of the other lows.

Well ukmet is usual dry model anyway 

[Ji]

Taking zero credit for this analysis but what I’m hearing is that our low is developing too late and rapidly occluding - meaning we aren’t pulling in enough moisture in time. Solution could be a little more dig. 

Yea how Many storms that formed so close to us destroyed us. We need more dig and more time

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Taking zero credit for this analysis but what I’m hearing is that our low is developing too late and rapidly occluding - meaning we aren’t pulling in enough moisture in time. Solution could be a little more dig. 

Moisture has been a problem for years with this -PDO and/or Niña. Heck, the 1"+ rain that was supposed to fall today ended up at only .38" at York Airport. 

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Taking zero credit for this analysis but what I’m hearing is that our low is developing too late and rapidly occluding - meaning we aren’t pulling in enough moisture in time. Solution could be a little more dig. 

          I think that this is very much on the right track.   If you look at the 10m wind field, the expected intense circulation on the east side of the storm just isn't there.    The 850 wind field looks like garbage too.

 

[baltosquid]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Taking zero credit for this analysis but what I’m hearing is that our low is developing too late and rapidly occluding - meaning we aren’t pulling in enough moisture in time. Solution could be a little more dig. 

If that's the case, I suppose it makes sense. Looking at the GFS at 12z vs the UKMET at 00z, the GFS takes the low much further south and it really gets strong down in the deep south. The UKMET ends up with a good h5 passage, but it primarily strengthens further north. Not really making as much noise in the south. Never accesses the GoM as much.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Moisture has been a problem for years with this -PDO and/or Niña. Heck, the 1"+ rain that was supposed to fall today ended up at only .38" at York Airport. 

Well the good news is i got almost an inch, sucks for you. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Well the good news is i got almost an inch, sucks for you. 

Yeah it did not underperform in my area. Probably the wettest day since October.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Moisture has been a problem for years with this -PDO and/or Niña. Heck, the 1"+ rain that was supposed to fall today ended up at only .38" at York Airport. 

Radar estimates show like .75” there. I hit .8” here so not sure about that. Never showed 1”+ here either was like .5-.75” expected. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Well the good news is i got almost an inch, sucks for you. 

I don't care about the rain in the winter, I'm just giving an example how lack of precip has been a problem in the current weather regime. 

[Kevin Reilly]

21 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

You tellin' me this isn't doing shit for us?

Welcome to Jupiter!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Radar estimates show like .75” there. I hit .8” here so not sure about that. Never showed 1”+ here either was like .5-.75” expected. 

It did over to our east toward York, and that's the site I used.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

          I think that this is very much on the right track.   If you look at the 10m wind field, the expected intense circulation on the east side of the storm just isn't there.    The 850 wind field looks like garbage too.

 

Wonder if it’s almost a case of too much of a good thing at h5 with the bombing out. Maybe with such an intense depression in the atmosphere it encourages surface cyclogensis to progress through its stages too rapidly. Subsequently it’s too late to actually develop a good moisture fetch as the moist air transport is cut by the occlusion. Though honestly I have no clue. Only other thing that I think lends credence to my theory is that the upper levels are so dominant it forces cyclogenesis over the middle of NC instead of the normal coastal temp gradient. Dunno how we actually improve this situation though (as in what to watch for) 

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Moisture has been a problem for years with this -PDO and/or Niña. Heck, the 1"+ rain that was supposed to fall today ended up at only .38" at York Airport. 

Also it was supposed to be 60-62 today the high here was 37 can’t get this right 5 hours out, but honestly it gives me hope because once again it stayed way colder. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Also it was supposed to be 60-62 today the high here was 37 can’t get this right 5 hours out, but honestly it gives me hope because once again it stayed way colder. 

Last Friday some runs showed us hitting 70 for today.

[baltosquid]

Alright euro running, wonder if the dry aughts continue