January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Heisy]

GFS won’t quit with this solution eh. Man, can we please get the cmc or euro to show something at least a little bit similar lol. One time boys/girls!


.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Heavy snow at 138

Sweet mercy. But until others are on board and it's like...Wednesday it's hard to buy it.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I will sell my left kidney for this lol. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Best model run of the winter. Wow!

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Bazinga

That’s all I need to see and know its a banger.

[baltosquid]

One thing I noticed with this run is the PV was notably further away from the storm which was able to cut off and turn much better.

[Scraff]

Can I get what what!! GFS spreading the fresh pow. Love it!

[stormtracker]

Just now, Heisy said:

GFS won’t quit with this solution eh. Man, can we please get the cmc or euro to show something at least a little bit similar lol. One time boys/girls!


.

This is what is tempering any enthusiasm whatsoever from me.   Show me more guidance with this or even close to it then I’m there.  But now, it’s fun and exciting to see, but eh 

[bncho]

IMO this just shows how delicate this setup is. Hopefully another model run can follow suit.

[Heisy]

This is what is tempering any enthusiasm whatsoever from me.   Show me more guidance with this or even close to it then I’m there.  But now, it’s fun and exciting to see, but eh 

Yea, usually in this scenarios where the GFS has some zonked out solution like 00z it makes steps back to reality. For it to do this 2 runs later is kind of interesting, but yeah, need euro or cmc to confirm reality lol


.

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Best model run of the winter. Wow!

Per what you said about paste bomb, 850 and 700 level temps look fantastic, crashing as the low reforms off the coast. Not our usual battle with screaming easterlies. What a dream run lol

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This is what is tempering any enthusiasm whatsoever from me.   Show me more guidance with this or even close to it then I’m there.  But now, it’s fun and exciting to see, but eh 

Agreed. This isn’t the first time gfs showed an exciting run only to have gotten no consensus from other models. Lets see this time. Takeaway is that there IS a high-end possibility from this. 

[Ji]

Omg

[Imgoinhungry]

GFS won’t quit with this solution eh. Man, can we please get the cmc or euro to show something at least a little bit similar lol. One time boys/girls!


.

Model showing the least snow is always right. When will gfs pull the rug?


.

[WxUSAF]

Riding the Icon and GFS? What can go wrong. GFS shows the Mt PSU jackpot though which seems like the most realistic part.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Ji said:

Omg

Yup… if only…

[bncho]

Okay, back to reality. CMC is at hr 96. @TSSN+ pbp part 2 please!

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

Okay, back to reality. CMC is at hr 96. @TSSN+ pbp part 2 please!

The h5 is better looking than 0z a step towards gfs but not sure it does it this run. But an improvement for sure 

[Terpeast]

Cmc not gonna do it. H5 vort too forward and pos tilted compared to gfs (tho better than 0z)

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I will sell my left kidney for this lol. 

But then you'll be unable to get pi$$ed off!

[baltosquid]

AIGFS also was a step in the right direction, though is still in the light moderate category

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Cmc not gonna do it. H5 vort too forward and pos tilted compared to gfs

Ya looked better upstairs than 0z but still not enough. Though out of all models cmc is one I care about the least lol. 

[bncho]

CAPE storm might have a chance on the GFS

[TSSN+]

Maybe it’s time for a gfs coup it’s been long enough. 

[AlexD1990]

12-15" somehow right over my house despite starting as rain. LFG

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya looked better upstairs than 0z but still not enough. Though out of all models cmc is one I care about the least lol. 

At least its a step in the right direction from anything other than gfs

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya looked better upstairs than 0z but still not enough. Though out of all models cmc is one I care about the least lol. 

Could be saving energy for threat 2 like the Icon.

[baltosquid]

CMC moved in the right direction at least. I doubt we get anything like a clean consensus at 12z. Still, not ready to let go of the boom scenario after the GFS.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

CAPE storm might have a chance on the GFS

Ya h5 looks way better than 0 and 6z but till we figure out Thursday not sure it matters much. That h5 energy changes it will change anything after it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Very good trends thus far.