January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looking ahead through end of Jan, all ensembles bring a southern/SE ridge after jan 22… but gefs/geps retrogrades the ridge west toward the end of their runs. If they’re correct, that thaw will only last a few days before it gets colder again. Euro wants to keep the SE ridge all the way through, but with mjo going into 7 I think its wrong and will catch up to gefs/geps. 

I posted a map of verification scores a few pages ago, but there's a clear consensus of the Euro flexing the southeast ridge too often in the extended this winter.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I posted a map of verification scores a few pages ago, but there's a clear consensus of the Euro flexing the southeast ridge too often in the extended this winter.

Yep i think bluewave posted that in the main enso thread. Usually it was biased the other way, and this year has been different

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You might want to reread the date on that map.

[GreyHat]

5 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yes the entire I-95 corridor. 

The trough is wide and positive tilting.  Early during the week I miss spoke of gfs run but is showed this system going from NC to out to sea. Unless the trough changes I don't see this coming up the coast. Then again we have this weekend system we're there's like an inch of rain for delmarva. Will see.

[Ji]

the Euro AIFS gave us 4 inches through 360 on the 00z run

18z run

[GreyHat]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I'm not here for hits. I want to meet new people and change the world.

I wouldn't go with the GFS until other models are on board and we are within 3 days. We've had storms right up to day 2 coming up the coast to all of a sudden go further ots.

[IronTy]

I'm waiting til after this weekend's event to get invested.  If we underperform during this rain then I'm sticking with drought persistence.  But if we get a solid soaking then I'm gonna have some faith again.  

[Scraff]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Please keep us posted.

If you got home Sunday and we expected you to be home on Monday, things just wouldn't be right.

I’ve had no idea what’s happening in here for hours. Finally checkin in. First post I read…..I nearly spit out my beer. 

[mitchnick]

The differences between the 12z Euro at 150hrs and the 18z at 144 are pretty unbelievable. No wonder we can't get anything close to right beyond 24 hrs, if that. 12z on top

[Heisy]

This setup ends up being a cutter because the 50/50 just zooms right out of there. Long way to go, but I’d find it par for the course with our luck the last 10 years.




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[Weather Will]

Very depressing JB video tonight.  States 7-10 day period to get something then pattern will get warm until later in February.

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Very depressing JB video tonight.  States 7-10 day period to get something then pattern will get warm until later in February.

Yeah he said that yesterday too.  I was gonna mention it but didn't want to spoil the mood.  

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Very depressing JB video tonight.  States 7-10 day period to get something then pattern will get warm until later in February.

No one should take JB seriously. He talks out of both sides of his mouth.

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This setup ends up being a cutter because the 50/50 just zooms right out of there. Long way to go, but I’d find it par for the course with our luck the last 10 years.




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A cutter?? Lol I doubt that 

[Weather Will]

Models are all over the place.  At the point of taking just one week at a time, and if there is nothing there focus on something else, like doing my taxes....

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No one should take JB seriously. He talks out of both sides of his mouth.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Very depressing JB video tonight.  States 7-10 day period to get something then pattern will get warm until later in February.

 JB also said a week ago that.  It was gonna get brutally cold. Rivalling the  1985 brutal cold .. JB. Changes his tune every week lol . He's so inaccurate I don't even  watch his videos anymore

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No one should take JB seriously. He talks out of both sides of his mouth.

His ass too

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

You mean when DCA almost reached 80 degrees in Jan? I seriously doubt it happens this time. Feburary, maybe. 

DCA did reach 80F in January.

[Weather Will]

I am confused about MJO phases.  Is there a good link anyone has?  I thought Phase 1 was ok, but apparently it is warm in February at least with a La Niña..That is where he thinks we are headed the first two weeks of February.  

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No one should take JB seriously. He talks out of both sides of his mouth.

 To be honest I trust the Pro Mets we have in here a hell of a lot more then I trust JB!  

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Very depressing JB video tonight.  States 7-10 day period to get something then pattern will get warm until later in February.

Book the blizzard. That dude is washed. 

[pazzo83]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Book the blizzard. That dude is washed. 

seriously, dude is like the Jim Cramer of meteorology

[Terpeast]

If correct, things might throw a wrench into a canonical nina Feb and we get yet another chance then.

 

[pazzo83]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 To be honest I trust the Pro Mets we have in here a hell of a lot more then I trust JB!  

yeah i pretty much trust them more than anyone else lol.  Some of our TV mets are pretty good too.

[clskinsfan]

Way out in lala land but a good look at the end of the GFS run. Arctic HP up top and another storm on the gulf coast. Could be a decent overrun event if it doesnt get squashed. 

[bncho]

Okay, let's try to do another good, informative post so TSSN thinks my account is still hacked.
In my opinion, we're either going to get the January 15-16 storm, the January 18-20 storm, or we're going to get neither. The kicker poor wave spacing , while not helping our 15th system actually helps the second wave (for the 18-20th) as I think that the residual energy from the kicker helps with a stronger +PNA, helping slow down the jet stream so the original kicker can tilt negative and bam. This is getting the the end of my knowledge however so I'm not 100% whether this analysis is correct. If I'm wrong please correct me

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah i pretty much trust them more than anyone else lol.  Some of our TV mets are pretty good too.

I'm trusting PSU over JB any day of the week

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Very depressing JB video tonight.  States 7-10 day period to get something then pattern will get warm until later in February.

He's clearly going off today's Euro weeklies that could easily be substantially different in a few days. Fwiw, 18z Gefs are cold to end the run still.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If correct, things might throw a wrench into a canonical nina Feb and we get yet another chance then.

 

Been wondering about this...considering the lag in atmospheric effects we see, would we see a response that soon?

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This setup ends up being a cutter because the 50/50 just zooms right out of there. Long way to go, but I’d find it par for the course with our luck the last 10 years.




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Transient 50-50 lows are often not helpful outside of perfect timing/luck. Its simply a low moving through that location. A 50-50 low that is useful is part of a -NAO rex block, in which case it is quasi-stationary.