January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

CMC looks damn good. 4-6+" with more still to go

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have nothing to add regarding any of the specific threats, they are all too far out for me to waste time on run to run permutations.  But my general thoughts regarding the overall pattern is that it's been pretty rare for us to time up a good h5 pattern with our snowiest climo period (which is by far mid Jan to mid Feb).  One of our problems, among many, over the last 10 years as been that our best chances for snow have come outside that period.  We've been fighting for scraps along the edges of the cold season in many years.  Right now the pattern across all guidance for the second half of January looks very favorable.  It's supported by tropical forcing.  If we get an extended cold pattern from mid January into Feb I'll take my chances.  It won't help us with the STJ, we're going to have to deal with phasing and NS issues and it will still be a struggle, but one we have a much better chance of winning if we get a good pattern timed up during our snowiest climo period.  

Very well said. You mentioned something last year that really hit home to me. There are times when we have a workable, or even favorable pattern for snow and we miss out due to bad luck, etc. That's upsetting, but fine. Then you have the years where it's Pacific Puke™ all winter and nothing can save us. Those are heart wrenching. It appears that we are set up for success over the next month and it's all down to luck. That's fine, we just want to be in the game.

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's loaded for sure

Pretty amazing depiction to get snow down to the Gulf states all the way into the Canadian Maritimes. No matter what this upcoming time period looks loaded. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Canadian also has the banana high the GFS had. Good to see that feature on multiple models. 

[bncho]

The CMC is cold fluff verbatim. Likely would've been an 8-12" deal if the run ran a little longer.

[stormtracker]

About to be into a serious week of tracking next week.   The band's about to get back together yall.  Will the tour end in success or failure....

[WxUSAF]

Apologies if it was already mentioned but GFSAI has a couple rounds of winter weather it looks like. Different solutions to all the possible events vs Ops though.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

About to be into a serious week of tracking next week.   The band's about to get back together yall.  Will the tour end in success or failure....

Decided to finally read up my Northeast Snowstorms book now that I have the tools to understand it. Will be taking some notes and sharing them here later to help in the future tracking. 

[T. August]

GEFS still not thrilled about the 15th.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Apologies if it was already mentioned but GFSAI has a couple rounds of winter weather it looks like. Different solutions to all the possible events vs Ops though.

At this point I think the only real thing to note is that we have a deep trough over the eastern US and several shortwaves that appear poised to dive in over a west coast ridge which may (or may not) help amplify the broad trough into distinct storm systems. Otherwise we just have to wait and see because (and I may be wrong) I doubt this will be a great setup for models to get right with more than even 4 days in advance. 

[bncho]

-EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

About to be into a serious week of tracking next week.   The band's about to get back together yall.  Will the tour end in success or failure....

Can you just text me 3 days before so I know it’s worth tracking? I can’t do 5+ days of tracking with the emotional ups and downs in here

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

About to be into a serious week of tracking next week.   The band's about to get back together yall.  Will the tour end in success or failure....

We so back. The bus is loaded. 

 

[Alfoman]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

GEFS still not thrilled about the 15th.

Oof didn't see the image of all the panel members, but it looks like under 2-3 legitimate hits for the 15th storm. Upper level progression is quicker, closer to 0Z result than 6Z which was a general improvement. Seems like the Ridge out west is more robust and pushing our trough along faster than we would want. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

At this point I think the only real thing to note is that we have a deep trough over the eastern US and several shortwaves that appear poised to dive in over a west coast ridge which may (or may not) help amplify the broad trough into distinct storm systems. Otherwise we just have to wait and see because (and I may be wrong) I doubt this will be a great setup for models to get right with more than even 4 days in advance. 

 

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

-EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event.

Yeah going to be volatile tracking for sure. Jan-Feb 2014 had most events pop up in short to medium range. @Bob Chillmentions this. But the more shots on goal we get, and at peak climo as @psuhoffman said, the better chance we get.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yeah going to be volatile tracking for sure. Jan-Feb 2014 had most events pop up in short to medium range. @Bob Chillmentions this. But the more shots on goal we get, and at peak climo as @psuhoffman said, the better chance we get.

Just like Oveckin. Shoot the puck you have a chance to score. 

[Alfoman]

Legit west based blocking/ - NAO on the long range OP GFS. Encouraging to see even tho in la la land

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

-EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event.

better 

[stormy]

The GEM gives me 6.2 inches at 240 with snow still falling.

-14 at 850 dictates no mixing issues.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

better 

better than January 2014?

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

better than January 2014?

your post was better, keep it up 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

There is shockingly good agreement in the operational models for the January 18/19 storm for 200+ hours.  

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GEM gives me 6.2 inches at 240 with snow still falling.

-14 at 850 dictates no mixing issues.

Yup. Cold powder.

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

There is shockingly good agreement in the operational models for the January 18/19 storm for 200+ hours.  

[Insert "The Good Ones Are Sniffed Out Early" Here]

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

your post was better, keep it up 

I think his account was hacked, I’m calling the police. 12z euro about to roll let’s see what we got. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS.....trough is not going negative.  Right now looks like a fish storm next week.

[North Balti Zen]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

There is shockingly good agreement in the operational models for the January 18/19 storm for 200+ hours.  

Yes. Kinda hoping that becomes the focus in the models and we don't end up in the the 15th thing messes up the one after scenario...

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I think his account was hacked, I’m calling the police. 12z euro about to roll let’s see what we got. 

Nah you don’t understand the goal of being young on a forum of 30+ year olds and wanting to prove then that you can learn. Hes gonna be goated trust me 

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, mappy said:

Can you just text me 3 days before so I know it’s worth tracking? I can’t do 5+ days of tracking with the emotional ups and downs in here

Well yeah, I forgot what times we are in.   I'll text you around Wed if we're still looking.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS.....trough is not going negative.  Right now looks like a fish storm next week.

Thanks Weather Will.i.am. Where is the love? 

[Benjamn3]

I’m ready to be hurt again.