January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

As long as it’s active that’s all I care. The weather has been a snorefest overall. 

If it torches like 72-73 or 97-98 trust me you won't like that, lol

[bncho]

52 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

18z GFS show 990L for 16th Jan going off the NC coast with some snow. The storm is shown being pushed out to sea.

Are you a time traveler?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS probs ( all Day 7 onward) .... 1, 3, and 6 inches.

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

Now that was a cool 12z suite.

Except for UK, GFS, GFS-AI, ECM-AI, and GEFS.

[Scraff]

Holy hell!  Help me with a GFS bomb for happy hour. I can’t freakin see….

[JenkinsJinkies]

I’ve been looking as DC’s 5 day forecast on Google all this week. At the start of the week it showed Saturday reaching 66, a day later it was down to 62, and now it’s not even going to make it out of the 50s.

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them.

I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters.  A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations.

I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens.

Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison.

Like I said, you don't understand. Google/AI might be helpful.

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

Not a bad mean if you ask me 

Very nice!!

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, GreyHat said:

18z GFS show 990L for 16th Jan going off the NC coast with some snow. The storm is shown being pushed out to sea.

What 18z run did u look at!  Lol

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

What 18z run did u look at!  Lol

That post is incorrect. 

[CAPE]

Been busy the last few days so haven't been paying much attention(a good thing actually)

Just looking at the ens means, and this is a pretty sweet UL look. We haven't seen energy digging like this very often lately. Still not crazy about the look in eastern Canada, with the vort lobe and higher heights near 50-50, so interaction and timing is critical. Details to be resolved going forward. Op runs will have some misses, close calls/teases, and some hits. Stay calm.

[Ji]

dont know what the end result will be but the 18z should be better than the 12z which may not be saying much

[Ji]

the GFS AI shifted west a bit

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

dont know what the end result will be but the 18z should be better than the 12z which may not be saying much

My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.

what?

[Ji]

man--if this went negative just a few ticks earlier/more west

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

man--if this went negative just a few ticks earlier/more west

Ticking the right way still. OBX can have it this run 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

man--if this went negative just a few ticks earlier/more west

Ya too early to have it show us getting crushed. Slowly reel it in over the next couple days. 

[Ji]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Ticking the right way still. OBX can have it this run 

this is one of the few events that can actually trend north/west for us. I would say at 180 hours---we are looking pretty good if you know the GFS biases lol

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is one of the few events that can actually trend north/west for us. I would say at 180 hours---we are looking pretty good if you know the GFS biases lol

So what's the mechanism to bring it north and west besides model bias and weenie wishes?

[CAPE]

That energy digging southward over the western ridge is creating mini ridge out in front and that's problematic. Need that to be weaker or more spacing. Good thing is at this range that probably wont be the actual outcome. As is, it isnt that far from something good.

[bncho]

2 hours ago, GreyHat said:

18z GFS show 990L for 16th Jan going off the NC coast with some snow. The storm is shown being pushed out to sea.

maybe u are a time traveler… u are awfully close to the true depiction 

[brooklynwx99]

seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot

Keep backing up the SW west from over FL to Louisiana and we golden. 

[winter_warlock]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is one of the few events that can actually trend north/west for us. I would say at 180 hours---we are looking pretty good if you know the GFS biases lol

 Amen brother!!!!!

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

maybe u are a time traveler… u are awfully close to the true depiction 

 That's actually a nice spot to be at 7-8 days out. Room to move nw :)

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

So what's the mechanism to bring it north and west besides model bias and weenie wishes?

luck

[batmanbrad]

GFS at 312 now on Pivotal looks somewhat interesting, but too far out to pay too much attention to.

[Ji]

sorry but this is meteorogically impossible

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

sorry but this is meteorogically impossible

Mostly anything the gfs usually shows beyond 240 usually is