January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Those are good points and certainly need to be kept in mind. I think small sample size is definitely a cautionary point as well. If you look at wind plots, OLR, and SSTs though, you see that guidance would put the most rising motion and convection in a canonically pretty good location for us: east of the maritime continent towards the central pacific. That should provide sub seasonal forcing that is favorable for winter weather. You can also look at atmospheric angular momentum and see that the global atmosphere doesn’t look very Nina-like right now. A lot of above normal AAM in the tropics. So I don’t know which of these factors win out. I don’t at all think we’re done with snow and cold. Will this winter be a memorable one? I also doubt that. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Key word in this write up= Unfortunately 

I should just make that my winter forecast every year 

“unfortunately” 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean if we are being honest below average is the norm with everything but a Modiki at this point. 

True

The other issue is we use 30 year means that are actually lagging in a decreasing trend so the means might be misleading.  I am not saying the trend will continue, I have no interest in having this fight again right now, but IF...IF the trend does continue eventually the mean for Baltimore, for example, will be about 13" and then a lot of these winters classified as "below normal" looking back would just be normal or slightly above normal if we applied a 30 year mean centered on that year (using both 15 seasons before and after it).  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Those are good points and certainly need to be kept in mind. I think small sample size is definitely a cautionary point as well. If you look at wind plots, OLR, and SSTs though, you see that guidance would put the most rising motion and convection in a canonically pretty good location for us: east of the maritime continent towards the central pacific. That should provide sub seasonal forcing that is favorable for winter weather. You can also look at atmospheric angular momentum and see that the global atmosphere doesn’t look very Nina-like right now. A lot of above normal AAM in the tropics. So I don’t know which of these factors win out. I don’t at all think we’re done with snow and cold. Will this winter be a memorable one? I also doubt that. 

I agree and hope people don't take my previous post to mean I'm cancelling winter.  But I see how it might have been taken that way.  My point was just that in a vacuum a nina fading isn't necessarily a good thing.  I tend to think the fact that the results have actually been WORSE in those instances is just a fluke of a small sample size, and while I do think the factors I mentioned above mean the odds don't automatically go up when a nina fades...we can get snowy periods during a cold enso, or even a neutral.  Flukes happen.  2000 we had nothing going into late January and then one of our snowiest 10 day periods of the last 30 years.  2005-6 we had some snow in december then nothing until a MECS in mid February.  1999 was awful then we got a snowy period in March.  Same with 2018.  And these things can happen in an enso neutral following a nina also, it's probably just the small sample size that we haven't run into it yet.  

All that to say I do think we get snow the rest of the way.  I don't know how much.  My expectations are starting to lower some, we largely wasted several chances the first 1/3 of winter and that has to be factored in.  But I do not think we get shut out the rest of the way.  The pattern doesn't look like the examples of dreg shut out type winters at all.  

[WxUSAF]

Yeah your last sentence is key. If you ignore everything else and just look at ensemble mean D10-15 plots, that is the opposite of “shit the blinds and get ready for spring”. -AO, -EPO, +PNA, tropospheric PV in our hemisphere, neutral to -NAO, broad continental trough over eastern 2/3rds. That all says winter to me. Do we underachieve and waste it? Always a chance and maybe a decent chance due to residual Nina-ness. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Again, the metros all got measurable December snow with DCA coming to within less than a quarter inch of the average for 1991-2020 climo. Most of the time in a dreg season the metros would still be waiting for their first snowfall.

[Heisy]

End of icon, yeah it’s the icon, but some support for the gfs at least




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[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of icon, yeah it’s the icon, but some support for the gfs at least




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Ok, now that's a great look.

Just checked the surface and it's a big one, but it's pretty warm out front as is.    

[Heisy]

Ok, now that's a great look

Yeah it’s rare to see shortwaves dig into the gulf, so def something to keep an eye on if it’s legit. Also hopefully that kicker coming along holds off


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[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it’s rare to see shortwaves dig into the gulf, so def something to keep an eye on if it’s legit. Also hopefully that kicker coming along holds off


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I know @CAPE likes the period after this one, but I've preferred this one so far.  I think there's something to it, but the problem is that something might be rain    

[clskinsfan]

End of the 12Z ICON has a big old Miller A on the Gulf Coast. 

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of icon, yeah it’s the icon, but some support for the gfs at least




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If this event somehow happens - the ICON will have had it first... had a big storm cooking at 00z last night as well. But didn't mention it since ya know, it's the ICON

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

End of the 12Z ICON has a big old Miller A on the Gulf Coast. 

We’re due for a massive overrunning snow event.

[NorthArlington101]

AIGFS not gonna do it, for whatever that's worth.

[clskinsfan]

Would need a better HP than that. But it is good that most of the models are keying on that period for a big storm.

[winter_warlock]

This is the kind of snow I want!!!!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/182KBNCDpG/

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

This is the kind of snow I want!!!!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/182KBNCDpG/

That ain't nothing. Check out Justin Berks page on Facebook. He posted my chase footage from the Tug. 

Gfs doesn't look like it's going to do it again. 

[WxUSAF]

GGEM doesn’t quite get it to happen, but some snow for our region late next week. Particularly N/W areas. Sloppy phase as guidance keeps showing.

[Pityflakes]

GFS at 12z looks...different

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Pretty decent agreement between ICON, GFS, and CMC of some vorts flying around the *could* get us a coastal storm.   The problem is coming outta our torch there isn't much cold around.  

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM doesn’t quite get it to happen, but some snow for our region late next week. Particularly N/W areas. Sloppy phase as guidance keeps showing.

Just gunna post. Nice step toward something bigger and better.

[Heisy]

Keep an eye on 12z cmc, this looks like it might try to do something




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[psuhoffman]

47 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If this event somehow happens - the ICON will have had it first... had a big storm cooking at 00z last night as well. But didn't mention it since ya know, it's the ICON

Maybe this will be its 2006 JMA moment 

[Heisy]

Man this was so close, stupid kicker ruined it all




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[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Man this was so close, stupid kicker ruined it all




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We should root for a slower wave. Cmc trended slower last 3 runs, and 6z gfs (what we want) is slower than 12z gfs. Too fast, and the phase is missed and or too late

[Heisy]

We should root for a slower wave. Cmc trended slower last 3 runs, and 6z gfs (what we want) is slower than 12z gfs. Too fast, and the phase is missed and or too late

Yeah, you also need this thing to bomb out at our latitude though because the airmass is pretty meh. Any kicker coming in behind it would disrupt that from happening.


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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah, you also need this thing to bomb out at our latitude though because the airmass is pretty meh. Any kicker coming in behind it would disrupt that from happening.


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With this kind of setup, marginal air, we need everything to break just right with the phasing and even if it does it might just favor the NW areas.  With that in mind it's good to keep expectations very in check.   After the period for this potential storm it looks like most ensembles have us returning to seasonal or cooler than average temps, perhaps we get a wave then as well. 

[bncho]

lol look at that stream of arctic highs

[Ji]

lol look at that stream of arctic highs

Lol all you want but those will push systems south

[bncho]

funky GFS run