January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

I leave this place for ONE hour and I find Ji is the most positive in the room. 

[Ji]

still a big disconnect between the streams

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

still a big disconnect between the streams

The NW-->SE flow that has been prevalent for the past 45+ days will not allow for a storm to spin up. We need the PNA to go decently positive or we're screwed if this pattern continues the rest of the season. Not totally screwed, of course, but limited to northern stream clippers, or clipper like systems, with accumulations of 1-4" max. Of course, it's been weeks since we had one of those, so they're not a guarantee either.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

still a big disconnect between the streams

Looks like a 3 day tracker pattern...that is the kind of setups that will still be changing 50 times all the way up to D3 because of distinct features only the best posters can minutely analyze 

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Damn that thing. So close.

I honestly think that's our period to watch. 

[Heisy]

This is a +TNH pattern matches the ensembles really well, just gotta see how much/if the ridge flexes. Still far out, so hopefully the -EPO is real.

Wed probably cash in if this pattern happens




.

[Ji]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The NW-->SE flow that has been prevalent for the past 45+ days will not allow for a storm to spin up. We need the PNA to go decently positive or we're screwed if this pattern continues the rest of the season. Not totally screwed, of course, but limited to northern stream clippers, or clipper like systems, with accumulations of 1-4" max. Of course, it's been weeks since we had one of those, so they're not a guarantee either.

last legit storm we had was Dec 2. That was the one the GFS was showing 20 inches for. Had that storm happened a week later, we would have 8-10 inches of snow this winter and id be alot quiter. that was a nice southern stream event

[Ji]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The NW-->SE flow that has been prevalent for the past 45+ days will not allow for a storm to spin up. We need the PNA to go decently positive or we're screwed if this pattern continues the rest of the season. Not totally screwed, of course, but limited to northern stream clippers, or clipper like systems, with accumulations of 1-4" max. Of course, it's been weeks since we had one of those, so they're not a guarantee either.

i call that a block because its so persistent. Its the NSFU block. No snow for you or some other words

[North Balti Zen]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

last legit storm we had was Dec 2. That was the one the GFS was showing 20 inches for. Had that storm happened a week later, we would have 8-10 inches of snow this winter and id be alot quieter.

That’s not remotely true.

[Ji]

That’s not remotely true.

Of course it’s true

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

last legit storm we had was Dec 2. That was the one the GFS was showing 20 inches for. Had that storm happened a week later, we would have 8-10 inches of snow this winter and id be alot quiter. that was a nice southern stream event

I had 3.5" on 12/14. Higher elevations in Northern MD got upwards of 5". That was the last and only "decent" event up here this year, though I've had a couple 1/2"'ers and 3 or 4 days of trace snow. 

[mitchnick]

Another abysmal EuroAI snowfall run. 18z that is.

[Ji]

I had 3.5" on 12/12. Higher elevations in Northern MD got upwards of 5". That was the last and only "decent" event up here this year, though I've had a couple 1/2"'ers and 3 or 4 days of trace snow. 

On how much qpf? That was not a southern stream event right?

[bncho]

39 minutes ago, Ji said:

last legit storm we had was Dec 2. That was the one the GFS was showing 20 inches for. Had that storm happened a week later, we would have 8-10 inches of snow this winter and id be alot quiter. that was a nice southern stream event

One of your best posts… and you’re right. That wave rode along that thermal boundary and dropped 0.7-1” of QPF across the area. The thermal boundary would have been much more forgiving around Dec 15 and it would have been more or less snow/mix for most of us.

[North Balti Zen]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Of course it’s true

I was here in January 2010. Pepperidge Farm remembers. So do I.

[aldie 22]

The Ji/Mitchnick show...not exactly must see tv 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

On how much qpf? That was not a southern stream event right?

Close to .35" as it started off wet.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

The Ji/Mitchnick show...not exactly must see tv 

Don't you have some pictures to hang in the new house for your wife? 

[Ji]

Jb thinks the AI is like 1990s mrf

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Jb thinks the AI is like 1990s mrf

That's OK. He hasn't changed much either since the 90's.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

last legit storm we had was Dec 2

I got more snow on the 14th than I did on the 2nd.

[IronTy]

JB asked Grok about the MJO and it basically told him to come back in early February.  Also he admitted the 1985 analog is off the table.  Not sure what took its place, I was too disgusted to listen to the rest of it.  

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

JB asked Grok 

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

JB asked Grok about the MJO and it basically told him to come back in early February.  Also he admitted the 1985 analog is off the table.  Not sure what took its place, I was too disgusted to listen to the rest of it.  

What an amazing meteorologist.

[IronTy]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

What an amazing meteorologist.

It's even worse.  Because I needed my daily dose of melancholy I listened to the rest of it, hoping for some rah rah pep talk about the Arctic freight train about to let loose.  Joke's on me, it basically ended with him and ominous phase-6 and SER talk and hinting that we're SOL if the ridge pumps.  When you've even lost JB from your team in the quest for winter then shit's pretty dire.  He tried half heartedly to throw out 2014 as an analog but I could tell even he didn't believe his own words.  

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, IronTy said:

JB asked Grok

JB is a clown. No one should take him seriously anymore.

[Weather Will]

WB latest GEFS extended likes the seven day period ending Jan. 25.

[CAPE]

Love the look around the 20th, even though its pretty far off. Best signal there for something across ens guidance.

The 14th-15th window is also sneaky good imo. Have liked the mid month period in general for awhile now.

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Love the look around the 20th, even though its pretty far off. Best signal there for something across ens guidance.

The 14th-15th window is also sneaky good imo. Have liked the mid month period in general for awhile now.

It has always been mid month. People talk about can kicks but it’s just them getting impatient lol

 

[Blizzard of 93]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Love the look around the 20th, even though its pretty far off. Best signal there for something across ens guidance.

The 14th-15th window is also sneaky good imo. Have liked the mid month period in general for awhile now.

 

As you mentioned, ensemble guidance again today showed a workable pattern for week 2 that should offer chances for Winter storms.

Good agreement on the ensembles as well.