January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

End of Ggem run monster probably would be rain, but we'll never know.

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

holy fucking -NAO

[high risk]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

It was stuck on hour 66 on TT, Pivotal, and WeatherBELL for about ten minutes.

      Understood, but while that means that it wasn't an issue with the processing on those sites, it's a dissemination issue with the data.   The model chugged along just fine; issues with the actual runs are extremely rare.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

It breaks the DT rule with a closed 5H low west of the Mississippi. 

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Understood, but while that means that it wasn't an issue with the processing on those sites, it's a dissemination issue with the data.   The model chugged along just fine; issues with the actual runs are extremely rare.

Ahh so it's dissemination! (I remember it saying that when the Euro had an issues a few weeks ago that delayed it for a little while)

[mitchnick]

Another "end of the run" tease on the Gfs without an ending.

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Another "end of the run" tease on the Gfs without an ending.

You always prefer a happy ending. 

[bncho]

The end of the GFS is a nice snowstorm and then we somehow mix on I-95.

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

That Alaskan Thorn . That Menace needs booted out.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

The end of the GFS is a nice snowstorm and then we somehow mix on I-95.

4-8" with @SnowenOutThere and crew getting about a foot. I'd take this, and most people would be ecstatic with this except Ji.

[Ji]

4-8" with [mention=18063]SnowenOutThere[/mention] and crew getting about a foot. I'd take this, and most people would be ecstatic with this except Ji.

So we’re out to January 14 now? Noted

[TSSN+]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

So we’re out to January 14 now? Noted

Apparently fantasy is now only thing we can post or hope for. 

[aldie 22]

Some of you guys really are

[stormy]

The southeast ridge pours cold water on the 00z GFS.

[Ji]

The ai gives us a snowstorm but by the time it happens winter is half over

[mitchnick]

0z EPS. Perfect example of too much of a good thing. Lol

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

So we’re out to January 14 now? Noted

Don't fret. It's gone on the 6z run.

[stormy]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

The ai gives us a snowstorm but by the time it happens winter is half over

Lets hope that the last half is rip-roaring!

[Ji]

0z EPS. Perfect example of too much of a good thing. Lol

Use this jb map instead

[Ji]

I think the board has hit rock bottom and that’s saying a lot

[stormy]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

The ai gives us a snowstorm but by the time it happens winter is half over

Hey Ji :  That's  about the same time-frame as the 00z GFS event.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Use this jb map instead

That just proves his maps are juiced. But it's not worth arguing about since it'll be changing in 7 hours.

By the way, I  do acknowledge that the flow out of Canada is usually a cold one for us, but interesting nonetheless that it is only slightly BN.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Ji]

That just proves his maps are juiced. But it's not worth arguing about since it'll be changing in 7 hours.
By the way, I  do acknowledge that the flow out of Canada is usually a cold one for us, but interesting nonetheless that it is only slightly BN.

Well, you know that we don’t need severe cold anomalies in January to get snow. In fact slightly below works better

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Well, you know that we don’t need severe cold anomalies in January to get snow. In fact slightly below works better

I agree, and I'm not worried about temps. We just need an effin' real slp to track west to east below us or up the coast dropping at least 1/2" of qpf. That's what I'm not seeing. If the pattern advertised by the ensembles is so great, the operationals should be full of those threats, but they're not. And I  think you'd agree with me on that.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Some of you guys really are

It's tiresome. 

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's tiresome. 

Patience is a virtue that is hard to come by.

[Ji]

It's tiresome. 

Says the Chief sinner

[WxUSAF]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That just proves his maps are juiced. But it's not worth arguing about since it'll be changing in 7 hours.

By the way, I  do acknowledge that the flow out of Canada is usually a cold one for us, but interesting nonetheless that it is only slightly BN.

As the Aleutian ridge dies and the jet extends, western Canada’s major cold pool will get eroded. But once the EPO ridge establishes cross polar flow, it will rebuild quickly. We’re not getting some super charged PAC jet blasting into Alberta and totally torching the continent.

[blizzardmeiser]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the board has hit rock bottom and that’s saying a lot

There will still be opportunities but it may take a few weeks to materialize.  You need patience.