January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

End of Ggem run monster probably would be rain, but we'll never know.

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

holy fucking -NAO

[high risk]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

It was stuck on hour 66 on TT, Pivotal, and WeatherBELL for about ten minutes.

      Understood, but while that means that it wasn't an issue with the processing on those sites, it's a dissemination issue with the data.   The model chugged along just fine; issues with the actual runs are extremely rare.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

It breaks the DT rule with a closed 5H low west of the Mississippi. 

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Understood, but while that means that it wasn't an issue with the processing on those sites, it's a dissemination issue with the data.   The model chugged along just fine; issues with the actual runs are extremely rare.

Ahh so it's dissemination! (I remember it saying that when the Euro had an issues a few weeks ago that delayed it for a little while)

[mitchnick]

Another "end of the run" tease on the Gfs without an ending.

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Another "end of the run" tease on the Gfs without an ending.

You always prefer a happy ending. 

[bncho]

The end of the GFS is a nice snowstorm and then we somehow mix on I-95.

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

That Alaskan Thorn . That Menace needs booted out.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

The end of the GFS is a nice snowstorm and then we somehow mix on I-95.

4-8" with @SnowenOutThere and crew getting about a foot. I'd take this, and most people would be ecstatic with this except Ji.

[Ji]

4-8" with [mention=18063]SnowenOutThere[/mention] and crew getting about a foot. I'd take this, and most people would be ecstatic with this except Ji.

So we’re out to January 14 now? Noted

[TSSN+]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

So we’re out to January 14 now? Noted

Apparently fantasy is now only thing we can post or hope for. 

[aldie 22]

Some of you guys really are

[stormy]

The southeast ridge pours cold water on the 00z GFS.