January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[wxdude64]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

thermals okay at best

I'd 100% take that for back this way.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

I'd 100% take that for back this way.

We don’t sweat thermals on 12 day away fantasy storms anyway, get the pattern right, get a storm.  First things first. 

[NorthArlington101]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hmm

This ends up dry, btw 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This ends up dry, btw 

yea i didnt like the look of the sw/trough. too far off shore

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

yea i didnt like the look of the sw/trough. too far off shore

End of run looks like a MECS though 

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

End of run looks like a MECS though 

As it often does. 

[Ji]

Just now, mitchnick said:

As it often does. 

are you okay dude?

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This ends up dry, btw 

It's close though.

[bncho]

12z Euro is kinda close but we deal with some mixing along I-95

[Ji]

why does WB keep skipping the money panels. who is in charge of this trainwreck. JB?

[Ji]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's close though.

yea its close. Gives us as much snow as we get today

[Ji]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

12z Euro is kinda close but we deal with some mixing along I-95

if we are getting mixing with a1036 high in this position....just cancel winter now forever

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

are you okay dude?

Come on. End of run storms are a dime a dozen and I can't think of one that's ever worked out. Too many things to go wrong 

Until we get a confirmation by the operationals and ensembles, all we have is potential. Big deal.

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

if we are getting mixing with a1036 high in this position....just cancel winter now forever

surprised you pointed to the high without mentioning the fact that it's the middle of january as well lol

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

if we are getting mixing with a1036 high in this position....just cancel winter now forever

Doesn't look so mixy out this way

[frd]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

if we are getting mixing with a1036 high in this position....just cancel winter now forever

 

Banana High, peak climo, cold Canada  and the outcome still sucks. Yes its at OP at 348 hours,  LOL.  

 

 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Come on. End of run storms are a dime a dozen and I can't think of one that's ever worked out. Too many things to go wrong 

Until we get a confirmation by the operationals and ensembles, all we have is potential. Big deal.

Only so many winters left for us right...ain't nobody got time to wait

[mitchnick]

Just now, frd said:

 

Banana High, peak climo, cold Canada  and the outcome still sucks. Yes its at OP at 348 hours,  LOL.  

 

 

Look what's in the Great Lakes.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Doesn't look so mixy out this way

 

Just now, mitchnick said:

Look what's in the Great Lakes.

lol us analyzing a 348 hour map. We definitely are in the shut the blinds window right now

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

 

lol us analyzing a 348 hour map. We definitely are in the shut the blinds window right now

we are so back

[CAPE]

12z Euro active with multiple chances. I like it.

[nj2va]

Just now, CAPE said:

12z Euro active with multiple chances. I like it.

Perfect BLUF.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Perfect BLUF.  

Micro analyzing op runs in the LR(or even worse, whining about MBY details) is futile and annoying. Folks gonna do what they do though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

In January we really need to change the PNA. It has a higher correlation with SE ridge or EC trough, than other months like Dec and March. +0.4 temp correlation in Jan. 

Hr384 of 12z GEFS is trying to change the PNA. It has a -NAO as well. I like the progression toward mid-January if it can hold going forward.. 

[WxUSAF]

EPS is tastier than leftover Xmas cookies for D10-11

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Look what's in the Great Lakes.

564dm over DC and Baltimore? 

[snowmagnet]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

Which pattern would y'all rather chance? Jan 2025 or the advertised Jan 2026 and why?

I vote for Jan ‘16 pattern

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

564dm over DC and Baltimore? 

It's that pesky GL low pumping the ridge as they always do. Too far away to worry, but several people seemed to not understand why the surface High to the north was ineffective. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's that pesky GL low pumping the ridge as they always do. Too far away to worry, but several people seemed to not understand why the surface High to the north was ineffective. 

Oh, I thought you were talking about a potential phase lol

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oh, I thought you were talking about a potential phase lol

If a GL is mentioned it is never anything good, hahaha