JenkinsJinkies Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Will the law of averages work out this time or will this be another “one that got away”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Will the law of averages work out this time or will this be another “one that got away”? It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it. Sure it’s a Niña but it’s also been 30 years since that level of delivery in a Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it. But wouldn't THAT be sweet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Sure it’s a Niña but it’s also been 30 years since that level of delivery in a Niña. Yes it has. It would be poetic, but weather doesn't have to follow poetry and we're due...I think we gotta let this one be and have zero expectations. Don't get too high on a good look! (Hard to do I know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Same unworkable garbage at 186hrs on the Gfs with this roll over ridge in the central US. Edit: On the Gem, only warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it. This. The NS dominance inherent in a nina can always break your heart even in a good look. Potential is always the emotional danger zone for snow weenies...gotta wonder if now is a good time to resolve to just kinda mentally take your hands off and let things happen. Speaking of 96'...I wanted to know about the exact storm track and exactly how that happened. Does a diagram/video exist of how it came together? (I'd love to see how the ns and ss were able to come together in a nina in time for us, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Wonder if we can get on the board for January w the front Thursday/Friday next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: This. The NS dominance inherent in a nina can always break your heart even in a good look. Potential is always the emotional danger zone for snow weenies...gotta wonder if now is a good time to resolve to just kinda mentally take your hands off and let things happen. Speaking of 96'...I wanted to know about the exact storm track and exactly how that happened. Does a diagram/video exist of how it came together? https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models/?model=era5&base=ptype&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=1996010100 ERA 5 reanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago So are we now not optimistic for January? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This. The NS dominance inherent in a nina can always break your heart even in a good look. Potential is always the emotional danger zone for snow weenies...gotta wonder if now is a good time to resolve to just kinda mentally take your hands off and let things happen. Speaking of 96'...I wanted to know about the exact storm track and exactly how that happened. Does a diagram/video exist of how it came together? This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago So are we now not optimistic for January?Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z They’ve both got my NYD dusting. We’re gonna trend that into a 12/14 redux but 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, WxUSAF said: They’ve both got my NYD dusting. We’re gonna trend that into a 12/14 redux but 50 miles south. When was the last time it snowed on New Year's, I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z What does Mr. Mix think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: What does Mr. Mix think? Need the: you guys are dumb post 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 38 minutes ago, Ji said: Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z Are u cancelling January before it begins? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models. What I loved for that storm was the 'extra' bonus snow we had here. The snow started earlier than forecast late night on the 5th early morning of the 6th and continued thru late afternoon of the 8th. 33.5" fell, 31" OTG when it stopped. Then another 5" fell around the 12th. Had SOG until 19th when 1.81" of RAIN fell melting all the snow (which had 2.15" SWE on 18th) and a monthly high of 62 degrees, leading to massive flooding. Ended month with 6.83" of liquid, 39.2" of snow. Edit, forgot. This was the storm that collapsed part of the warehouse roof at my work on the 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models. I need to learn to read. Saw that while driving and thought it was today’s runs. Soiled myself but I’m ok now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hmm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro has a T-1” for NYD before it loading what looks pretty epic at Day 10. Loading something else up at Day 14 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hmm p-type panels will come out in 4 business days lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Euro has a T-1” for NYD before it loading what looks pretty epic at Day 10. Loading something else up at Day 14 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hmm thermals okay at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12z Euro has an 8-12+" snowstorm at the end of it's run. Panels loading so give it a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Euro has a T-1” for NYD before it loading what looks pretty epic at Day 10. Loading something else up at Day 14 too Euro AI has same for NYD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, bncho said: I would take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Euro AI has same for NYD i like the 1004 low to our south for NYD. Maybe it has upside of instead of an inch...1.50 inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: i like the 1004 low to our south for NYD. Maybe it has upside of instead of an inch...1.50 inches Must you be so greedy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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