January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

Will the law of averages work out this time or will this be another “one that got away”?

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Will the law of averages work out this time or will this be another “one that got away”?

It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it.

Sure it’s a Niña but it’s also been 30 years since that level of delivery in a Niña.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it.

But wouldn't THAT be sweet?  

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Sure it’s a Niña but it’s also been 30 years since that level of delivery in a Niña.

Yes it has. It would be poetic, but weather doesn't have to follow poetry and we're due...I think we gotta let this one be and have zero expectations. Don't get too high on a good look! (Hard to do I know)

[mitchnick]

Same unworkable garbage at 186hrs  on the Gfs with this roll over ridge in the central US. 

 

Edit: On the Gem, only warmer.

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s still a Nina so keep expectations appropriate for that. Don’t expect January 96 to walk through the door until you’re done shoveling it.

This. The NS dominance inherent in a nina can always break your heart even in a good look. Potential is always the emotional danger zone for snow weenies...gotta wonder if now is a good time to resolve to just kinda mentally take your hands off and let things happen.

Speaking of 96'...I wanted to know about the exact storm track and exactly how that happened. Does a diagram/video exist of how it came together? (I'd love to see how the ns and ss were able to come together in a nina in time for us, lol)

[rjvanals]

Wonder if we can get on the board for January w the front Thursday/Friday next week 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. The NS dominance inherent in a nina can always break your heart even in a good look. Potential is always the emotional danger zone for snow weenies...gotta wonder if now is a good time to resolve to just kinda mentally take your hands off and let things happen.

Speaking of 96'...I wanted to know about the exact storm track and exactly how that happened. Does a diagram/video exist of how it came together?

https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models/?model=era5&base=ptype&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=1996010100
ERA 5 reanalysis

[aldie 22]

So are we now not optimistic for January?

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. The NS dominance inherent in a nina can always break your heart even in a good look. Potential is always the emotional danger zone for snow weenies...gotta wonder if now is a good time to resolve to just kinda mentally take your hands off and let things happen.

Speaking of 96'...I wanted to know about the exact storm track and exactly how that happened. Does a diagram/video exist of how it came together?

This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models. 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

So are we now not optimistic for January?

Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z

They’ve both got my NYD dusting. We’re gonna trend that into a 12/14 redux but 50 miles south.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

They’ve both got my NYD dusting. We’re gonna trend that into a 12/14 redux but 50 miles south.

When was the last time it snowed on New Year's, I wonder?

[aldie 22]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z

What does Mr. Mix think?

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

What does Mr. Mix think?

Need the: you guys are dumb post 

[winter_warlock]

38 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z

 Are u cancelling January before it begins? Lol

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models. 

 

 

 

 

What I loved for that storm was the 'extra' bonus snow we had here. The snow started earlier than forecast late night on the 5th early morning of the 6th and continued thru late afternoon of the 8th. 33.5" fell, 31" OTG when it stopped. Then another 5" fell around the 12th. Had SOG until 19th when 1.81" of RAIN fell melting all the snow (which had 2.15" SWE on 18th) and a monthly high of 62 degrees, leading to massive flooding. Ended month with 6.83" of liquid, 39.2" of snow. 

Edit, forgot. This was the storm that collapsed part of the warehouse roof at my work on the 8th. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models. 

 

 

 

 

I need to learn to read.  Saw that while driving and thought it was today’s runs.  Soiled myself but I’m ok now 

[NorthArlington101]

Hmm

[NorthArlington101]

Euro has a T-1” for NYD before it loading what looks pretty epic at Day 10. Loading something else up at Day 14 too

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hmm

p-type panels will come out in 4 business days lol

[bncho]

 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Euro has a T-1” for NYD before it loading what looks pretty epic at Day 10. Loading something else up at Day 14 too

 

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hmm

thermals okay at best

[bncho]

12z Euro has an 8-12+" snowstorm at the end of it's run. Panels loading so give it a sec.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Euro has a T-1” for NYD before it loading what looks pretty epic at Day 10. Loading something else up at Day 14 too

Euro AI has same for NYD

[T. August]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

 

I would take that

[Ji]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro AI has same for NYD

i like the 1004 low to our south for NYD. Maybe it has upside of instead of an inch...1.50 inches

[Ji]

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i like the 1004 low to our south for NYD. Maybe it has upside of instead of an inch...1.50 inches

Must you be so greedy?