January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[SouthCoastMA]

Not a big fan of the 500 low moving ENE over New England..vs under us. kinda handicaps any 2nd half storm potential for SNE. Hopefully an overreaction by Euro. I know,, still a decent storm. GFS/GEM better with that 

[dendrite]

31 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks a little niipply a week from today.   Goodness

Beer

[Spaizzo]

1-3 tonight .
Feet Sunday/ Monday/ Tuesday 

I don’t see many talking about tonight. Minus words alerting me yesterday afternoon snow Wednesday evening from 7-9pm lol


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[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

I don’t see many talking about tonight. Minus words alerting me yesterday afternoon snow Wednesday evening from 7-9pm lol


.

It’s mainly northern 2/3 of CT north with 1-2” 

[Kitz Craver]

200 post update. I knew.

[Kitz Craver]

Awesome trends continue, let’s goooo!!!!!!!

[Pennfisherman]

There are probably 10 people itching to be the one to make the thread! Hold off! 

[UnitedWx]

While we wait,  I had -3 in Westfield,  0 in Simsbury. Thankfully no wind!

[ORH_wxman]

Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID

[Kitz Craver]

Winds will get going today unfortunately 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID

Days and days?

[JKEisMan]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID

Yeah, was just gonna post. Slings a bunch of additional snow back into NE. Hope that look continues.

[metagraphica]

It's gonna snow.   Currently 0 degrees IMBY.  Fookin' cold.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID

Yeah that’s a juicy run up here

[dendrite]

-2.3°

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID

Does it offer anything fir up here?

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID

Who’s taking the honor of starting storm thread. This is a higher than normal confidence event at this point. We’re looking at snow breaking out on Sunday AM in southwest areas, 4 days out now.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

That second low development has been hinted at. Something that could give us a boost.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID

13" over EMASS now lmao .. at 10:1

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Who’s taking the honor of starting storm thread. This is a higher than normal confidence event at this point. We’re looking at snow breaking out on Sunday AM in southwest areas, 4 days out now.

 

We haven't given up, I think after 12z today it's cool to start one ..

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Does it offer anything fir up here?

You finally asked instead of trying to get answers by offering congrats southerners. Only took 5 posts 

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Who’s taking the honor of starting storm thread. This is a higher than normal confidence event at this point. We’re looking at snow breaking out on Sunday AM in southwest areas, 4 days out now.

 

Should be Ray, he did good with the last one

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Yeah, was just gonna post. Slings a bunch of additional snow back into NE. Hope that look continues.

Have we ever had a Richmond to Montreal to Halifax KU?

[Bryan63]

WPC Forecast

Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the aforementioned large scale pattern evolution, however differences in the details persist. The most notable question deals with how much interaction we see between the southern stream and northern stream energy over the Plains, and the overall depth/strength of the resultant trough. More interaction and a stronger trough would likely result in stronger downstream ridging and thus a farther north storm track. This is indeed what just about all the 00z models are trending towards. Generally a clean sweep, with the deterministic physics based models, ensemble means, and AI guidance all shifting north with the storm track. This trend really has little to no impact on the fact that a widespread and significant winter storm is going to occur...but it does play a big factor in exactly where the rain/ice/snow lines set up.

So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we don't see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent..

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We haven't given up, I think after 12z today it's cool to start one ..

Mirage caution flags

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6z Euro ups the ante even more.. 1 mile south of Ray's coastal front to the cape jack

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z Euro ups the ante even more.. 1 mile south of Ray's coastal front to the cape jack

Yeah. Solid look

[Baroclinic Zone]

4F, beats out December 28 by 1F for coldest yet

[jbenedet]

The huge shift of mid levels on the GEFS in like 4 runs has me shook.

My take is we are having major head fakes given the MJO progression uncertainty as 7 is AN in the east with +NAO tendency, but 8 is sig BN with -NAO tendency. The guidance has been waffling on the progression for days.

First was sitting in 7; then quick progression to 8; now I see a split— some showing sticking in 7, others quick to 8…

It’s now that all of the latest guidance is looking a lot more like an MJO 7 synoptic pattern. The crazy part about that is if we do settle in 7, I believe this continues further north. That primary on the EC AIFS in Ontario is a shade of how much more this could  trend…warmer….

I’ll make a call later this morning…

Should have enough data to see which way this will break.