January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS looking meh at 12z

Much more compressed. Looks like it’s AI cousin.

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That super storm in Russia is an astounding story...  just arresting

The AI scenes are fun, too.  

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1549540746321340/

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS looking meh at 12z

Congrats Myrtle Beach! The GFS sucks, I view it like the NAM at 84 hours.. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Beware of the press. We’ve seen this before, and not all that long ago.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Lucy Pull said:

Looks like it wants to bury the energy in the southwest again.

this! and that's usually a issue with the GFS.. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Much more compressed. Looks like it’s AI cousin.

yup now we wait on the rest of 12z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

AI GFS is fun, 4 southern mid atlantic snow events before the pattern warms.. 

[CoastalWx]

Mess flow. Srn stream dragging but the flow int the plains won’t allow it to pump up heights out east. Hell of an ice storm Deep South with only a narrow area of snow.

[Kitz Craver]

That’s a deflating run… limp

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just remember we are still digging out from our back to back major snowstorms the GFS had for last Wednesday and this Sunday in the mid range .. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS totally whiffs on any phasing of the northern stream. We’re cooked without that. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Mess flow. Srn stream dragging but the flow int the plains won’t allow it to pump up heights out east. Hell of an ice storm Deep South with only a narrow area of snow.

GFS almost cancels the winter storm for even Virginia.....Last storm we had the AI GFS/AI Euro/CMC versus the world, now it looks the it might be the AI GFS vs AI Euro....maybe the AI Euro becomes the new king when the dust settles.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

There are no guarantees moving forward, that should be obvious. Even after this weekend 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There are no guarantees moving forward, that should be obvious. Even after this weekend 

When is there ever a guarantee?

[Lucy Pull]

Looking like less interaction between streams on the CMC as well out to 90.

Don’t think it’ll be as zonked. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There are no guarantees moving forward, that should be obvious. Even after this weekend 

Thanks Wolfie.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When is there ever a guarantee?

There isn’t, but I see folks want to look past this weekend for a more favorable period; but there’s still a lot that has to go right. Fighting an uphill battle currently 

[ma blizzard]

3 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for Southern New England today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the obs thread for it. 

19.4" 

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian looks a bit slower. It might deliver though. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There isn’t, but I see folks want to look past this weekend for a more favorable period; but there’s still a lot that has to go right. Fighting an uphill battle currently 

Seems kind of favorable to me. That’s all you can ask for. Of course nothing is imminent but it’s good seeing models with some stuff in the pipeline.

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Looking like less interaction between streams on the CMC as well out to 90.

Don’t think it’ll be as zonked. 

looks pretty zonked afterwards, nothing like the GFS

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian looks a bit slower. It might deliver though. 

Just noticed that. Not far from 00z just a little slower 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There would be a good chance for a heavy band well north 

Give a Dendrite band circa 12/20.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian looks a bit slower. It might deliver though. 

When l lived in the Mid Atlantic, I would always get excited watching the CAD signature develop down the eastern side of the Apps into NC....Always knew fun times were ahead. Hopefully we can enjoy it up here as well

[SouthCoastMA]

CMC slower, so thats a route to get the confluence to ease up a bit

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Best to ignore GFS models until the operational gets to within NAM range, I don't know what is wrong with lately, it's been a random run major outlier on the last 2 storms now potentially this one, though I get it it's too earlier to say whether it's right or wrong. 

[SnowGoose69]

CMC gets there to a degree still but I have felt for awhile its idea was nonsensical, we do not typical see phases happen in the location it had been trying to show it.  I more buy the interaction and turn north happening later along or off the SC/GA/NC coast

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just noticed that. Not far from 00z just a little slower 

Can’t really hate this h5 look at 126

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

CMC slower, so thats a route to get the confluence to ease up a bit 

That’s what I think as well 

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just noticed that. Not far from 00z just a little slower 

Makes a great recovery. Had me gunshy at 90 after seeing the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t really hate this h5 look at 126

Shit ton of energy, digging on the backside of that trough too