January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I don't expect a major storm up here Sunday-Monday.  But it will be fun to watch it creep north and get the MA and SNE weenies a good time.  We'll likely get ours...

These can be deals where you get a big fronto band on the northern edge (convergence/stretching of parcels) so I wouldn’t count us out yet.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need that vort energy in Wisconsin/Iowa to phase a little more with the southwest stuff before it moves east. Started doing that this run but not enough except for very light stuff into SNE. 

AIFS-EPS likes that idea

[dendrite]

Yeah EPS AI keeps the lower heights further west too. 

[ORH_wxman]

Regular EPS improved some too. Does get light snows into SNE for the mean, which likely means there are a few bigger hits and plenty of whiffs. 
 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Regular EPS improved some too. Does get light snows into SNE for the mean, which likely means there are a few bigger hits and plenty of whiffs. 
 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

AIFS-EPS likes that idea

 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah EPS AI keeps the lower heights further west too. 

The irony is, in the past few winters, how often did we NOT want a piece of the TPV to phase with a central/western trough but it would do it anyway? Now we want it…let’s hope it happens this time. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

The irony is, in the past few winters, how often did we NOT want a piece of the TPV to phase with a central/western trough but it would do it anyway? Now we want it…let’s hope it happens this time. 

Yea lol. Amazing what a friendly pac does huh.. 

[Layman]

With all this movement, I'm sensing the possibility of a coup this weekend...

[weathafella]

OP euro came north with the qpf field and the Skynet was more robust.  12z was late on sv so just saw it.

[dryslot]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pic for reference. I’m not going to pretend to know what’s right…but I’d prefer the least confluent option possible.

That and scooter shit streaks, Let him keep those in his pants.

[ma blizzard]

12z Euro might be overdoing the 2m temps a bit  

Would be very impressive if this verified 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just a bone for the NNE crew. In Canada we trust .. 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

12z Euro might be overdoing the 2m temps a bit  

Would be very impressive if this verified 

Yeah I’ll take the over on a high of -5° here. Although 5-10° wouldn’t surprise me.

I’d love to know what the mid level temps were for 12/29/33. The afternoon high up here was -15°. That’s like 10° colder than anything else on record up here.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I’ll take the over on a high of -5° here. Although 5-10° wouldn’t surprise me.

I’d love to know what the mid level temps were for 12/29/33. The afternoon high up here was -15°. That’s like 10° colder than anything else on record up here.

Had to be sub -40C stuff on a Montreal express trajectory. The perfect storm of ingredients to get those types of numbers. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Had to be sub -40C stuff on a Montreal express trajectory. The perfect storm of ingredients to get those types of numbers. 

A high of -11° at CON…they’ve done a sub zero high once since the Feb 1943 shot (-2 1981). But yeah…everything had to align for that 1933 airmass. 

[kdxken]

 

[wxeyeNH]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I’ll take the over on a high of -5° here. Although 5-10° wouldn’t surprise me.

I’d love to know what the mid level temps were for 12/29/33. The afternoon high up here was -15°. That’s like 10° colder than anything else on record up here.

I think since living up here I have only had a couple of days where I stayed below 0F all day. Just below, nothing like 1933. My record low is -19.5F with that brief brutal arctic blast a few years ago.  

[WinterWolf]

47 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just a bone for the NNE crew. In Canada we trust .. 

Is the GDPS the Canadian Ensembles?  Or just another name for the CMC? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is the GDPS the Canadian Ensembles?  Or just another name for the CMC? 

The Canadian Parallel Weather Model refers to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) running a test (parallel) version of a weather model alongside its operational model to evaluate upgrades before full deployment.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

30 day mean on Weeklies 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

30 day mean on Weeklies 

Weeklies go full weenie for pretty much all of February. I’ll believe it when I see it but that was an impressive run today. 

[dryslot]

Looking like single digit for highs sat-sun up here.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The Canadian Parallel Weather Model refers to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) running a test (parallel) version of a weather model alongside its operational model to evaluate upgrades before full deployment.

So the AI version of the CMC?  Or just another Op model. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

30 day mean on Weeklies 

Dear lord….

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So the AI version of the CMC? 

It’s says parallel. Not AI. It’s basically just an upgrade to the OP if it passes the test phase. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s says parallel. Not AI. It’s basically just an upgrade to the OP if it passes the test phase. 

Ok thanks.  I amended my post to ask that. Thanks for the info. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies go full weenie for pretty much all of February. I’ll believe it when I see it but that was an impressive run today. 

Here’s a few 5 day snapshots (from beginning to end of Feb)

 

 

 

 

[dendrite]

52 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I think since living up here I have only had a couple of days where I stayed below 0F all day. Just below, nothing like 1933. My record low is -19.5F with that brief brutal arctic blast a few years ago.  

1933 and 1943 would’ve been pretty cold up there. Franklin COOP had -40° in the 1943 one. That probably means somewhere around -30° here on the hill considering CON had their all time record low of -37°.

I need to find the closest station relevant to your climo for those years.

[cleetussnow]

19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so, still haven't formulated an opinion of these AI tools ... but, if the assertion of superiority in that extended range is true this actually lands ideally in the best time

Something HAS to give.  Something.  This could be a great winter - its in front of us - but only if we catch one or 2 out of this.  

[weathafella]

I gotta fly 2/1 to FL to care for my MIL-was originally planned the first week of March but alas stuff happens.  She can’t be alone and my wife’s siblings are/were  there last week, this week, and next so our time is coming except since  my wife and me are the only ones with more time.  Let’s get a big dog before 2/1!  After that our winter is over.