January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I dunno' I could see a few advisory events getting many over 10" for the month.  Lots of cold lurking. 

[WxWatcher007]

Brief shot of big dog cold on the GFS next week. Signal has been pretty consistent across guidance. 

[MJO812]

Euro is frigid in the long range 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is frigid in the long range 

Exciting 

[moneypitmike]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Exciting 

 

Joke aside--it is showing really cold.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Joke aside--it is showing really cold.

Hold me

[qg_omega]

37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Joke aside--it is showing really cold.

Almost no QPF for two weeks as well

[Damage In Tolland]

This is a winter of Stein . Water bans by Morch 

[mahk_webstah]

Except for a bit of rain and snow midweek, all precipitation gone from 10 day.  Pretty much the worst case scenario from where this looked to be headed.  Quite a surprise to me tbh.  Cold and dry sucks.  Much prefer cutter to wipe it clean and be warmer outside.

otoh this will probably change but seems like quite a fail for mid range models.  Or maybe just a perceptual bias based on large number of models and frequency of model runs?

[mahk_webstah]

Although WPC still has some risk of storm 18-19th

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Almost no QPF for two weeks as well

Very boring on the models. This is awful .

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Only hope for widespread snow is a NW amplification trend on around MLK day for the next 7 days..  Guidance is still all over the place after that in terms of where the cold goes and where the gradient sets up .. There also seems to be an overrunning set up the end of next week in the 9-12 day range .. But again have to see where the gradient sets up 

[qg_omega]

The northern and southern jets are dead, we stein 

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a winter of Stein . Water bans by Morch 

 

For all those looking to water their lawns in March.

[UnitedWx]

Long range on the models look dead... good. Lets get something to appear within 4 maybe 5 days, instead of chasing fantasies

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Long range on the models look dead... good. Lets get something to appear within 4 maybe 5 days, instead of chasing fantasies

Long range has been awful but yet people still forecast based off of it.

[NoCORH4L]

If we could get record breaking Fairbanks cold, I'm sure many would take a week of that.  At a minimum, the pipe breaks and ice skating on the Charles would keep the news exciting more than it is now I suppose.  40/70 doing Ice Road Truckers on the Charles to skip traffic 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Long range has been awful but yet people still forecast based off of it.

Sure, but to be fair with the last threat there were plenty of warning signs... but some just ignored them. Beware the turds in the punch bowl

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is still quite snowy in the LR. They are not very interested in 1/18 though. They really seems to like the post-1/20 period. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is still quite snowy in the LR. They are not very interested in 1/18 though. They really seems to like the post-1/20 period. 

Ensembles don't like 1/18 but there have been some hits on the ops ocassionally in the 1/18-1/20 time frame 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ensembles don't like 1/18 but there have been some hits on the ops ocassionally in the 1/18-1/20 time frame 

They are tepid on both but prob more interested in that little follow-up wave on 1/20 than the 18th. 

[WinterWolf]

Bring the frigid cold. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully the cold is overplayed and we ride closer to the boundary. Nothing worse than cold and dry.