Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,470
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kmsrocknj
    Newest Member
    kmsrocknj
    Joined

January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it. 

Might want to tell Modfan this…he keeps harping how the cold is leaving, or we loose the cold, or there looks to be no cold around.…:lol:lmao. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

dendrite
dendrite

RIP

dendrite
dendrite

The joke is on you. This is what he sees when he posts.

kdxken
kdxken

Posted Images

weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The final few weeks of the month are going to be interesting...just have to hope the storm track sets up and work in our favor. But at lease these two look like a decent bet

1) Active storm track

2) Plenty of cold air around 

Storm track is going to be the critical component here because despite the cold around things could evolve to where we predominately see cutters. We can hope for a more negative NAO with favorable structure orientation but there is a quite a bit of spread in the direction of the NAO. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it. 

Maybe there is some truth to the old saying “drought begets drought”. We have been stuck in this dryness/drought cycle since the tail end of summer, 2024. I don’t see it breaking until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December in the NYC metro area. This winter pattern is just following the ongoing, overall theme of dryness, where storms either disappear or underperform with lower QPF than expected as we get closer in time. Just following the overall drought cycle. New tweet from NWS Upton:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Might want to tell Modfan this…he keeps harping how the cold is leaving, or we loose the cold, or there looks to be no cold around.…:lol:lmao. 

The cold did leave for a week-plus but it's def not staying away....once we get past Thursday, it's basically BN out to near the end of the month perhaps....we'll see how February starts. Weeklies have been flip-flopping from cold to warm for early Feb. 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The cold did leave for a week-plus but it's def not staying away....once we get past Thursday, it's basically BN out to near the end of the month perhaps....we'll see how February starts. Weeklies have been flip-flopping from cold to warm for early Feb. 

he stated this morning…doesn’t look cold, normal to slightly above, or below. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I'm going to enjoy the remainder of our thaw. Bound to get colder.

 

Of course, why wouldn’t you.  


And just so you know, it ain’t all lollipops and unicorns.  But I’m not gonna keep complaining bout something you can’t change.  The cold hasn’t been a problem, getting something to run into has here.  But whatever. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd. 

I mean can we even remotely trust anything the GFS says after what just happened? I know the later period did look better than Thursday did…but it was a horrid performance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean can we even remotely trust anything the GFS says after what just happened? I know the later period did look better than Thursday did…but it was a horrid performance. 

No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. 
 

It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. 
 

It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS. 

yeah, the 22-24th is a solid timeframe with established cold air, low heights over SE Canada, and some -NAO/-EPO. can see how you'd get something ejecting out of the west into cold air

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-9169600.thumb.png.afde4af3fb08b161f4edd2e7ac30c012.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. 
 

It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS. 

Well we do have a lot here that feel everything is going to fail from here on (1/12) out. You know the new norm and all that nonsense:lol: .  
 

But maybe the GFS won’t be alone with some of these chances as we close in. I mean 1/24 is way out there in clown range..I was more talking about the 18th.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

End of EPS probably the best PAC look all season. 

Yeah the joint EPO/PNA ridge....kind of like 2015. Usually doesn't verify these days, but I'd take even just the PNA part since antecedent cold in Canada will already be good. 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the joint EPO/PNA ridge....kind of like 2015. Usually doesn't verify these days, but I'd take even just the PNA part since antecedent cold in Canada will already be good. 

Pretty much a believe when see type thing at this point. I mean it’ll be in the heart of climo if it did materialize, so great timing there, but that’s a big IF at this point. But at least it’s showing it currently. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In all fairness Anthony, I don’t think anybody cares about LE here in SNE.  I mean good for them, but that doesn’t float anybody’s boat in SNE.  

I mean, Ray would rather we all blowtorch than three miles south of him get more snow. :lol: 

We’re arrogant snobs when we’re winning and full on haters when we’re losing. 

  • Haha 2
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean, Ray would rather we all blowtorch than three miles south of him get more snow. :lol: 

We’re arrogant snobs when we’re winning and full on haters when we’re losing. 

Very true. Just that at least for me…I don’t care what the lakes get(good for them), but it’s so isolated and mesoscale that it doesn’t really do anything for me, other than a quick glance when they show it on the news. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...