WinterWolf Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it. Might want to tell Modfan this…he keeps harping how the cold is leaving, or we loose the cold, or there looks to be no cold around.…lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago The final few weeks of the month are going to be interesting...just have to hope the storm track sets up and work in our favor. But at lease these two look like a decent bet 1) Active storm track 2) Plenty of cold air around Storm track is going to be the critical component here because despite the cold around things could evolve to where we predominately see cutters. We can hope for a more negative NAO with favorable structure orientation but there is a quite a bit of spread in the direction of the NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it. Maybe there is some truth to the old saying “drought begets drought”. We have been stuck in this dryness/drought cycle since the tail end of summer, 2024. I don’t see it breaking until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December in the NYC metro area. This winter pattern is just following the ongoing, overall theme of dryness, where storms either disappear or underperform with lower QPF than expected as we get closer in time. Just following the overall drought cycle. New tweet from NWS Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago That is a cold EPS run. Dear God please get something out of it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Make it stop. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Keep it coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Might want to tell Modfan this…he keeps harping how the cold is leaving, or we loose the cold, or there looks to be no cold around.…lmao. The cold did leave for a week-plus but it's def not staying away....once we get past Thursday, it's basically BN out to near the end of the month perhaps....we'll see how February starts. Weeklies have been flip-flopping from cold to warm for early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The cold did leave for a week-plus but it's def not staying away....once we get past Thursday, it's basically BN out to near the end of the month perhaps....we'll see how February starts. Weeklies have been flip-flopping from cold to warm for early Feb. he stated this morning…doesn’t look cold, normal to slightly above, or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: he stated this morning…doesn’t look cold, normal to slightly above, or below. I'm going to enjoy the remainder of our thaw. Bound to get colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: I'm going to enjoy the remainder of our thaw. Bound to get colder. Of course, why wouldn’t you. And just so you know, it ain’t all lollipops and unicorns. But I’m not gonna keep complaining bout something you can’t change. The cold hasn’t been a problem, getting something to run into has here. But whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd. I mean can we even remotely trust anything the GFS says after what just happened? I know the later period did look better than Thursday did…but it was a horrid performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Epicosity continues. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I mean can we even remotely trust anything the GFS says after what just happened? I know the later period did look better than Thursday did…but it was a horrid performance. No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS. yeah, the 22-24th is a solid timeframe with established cold air, low heights over SE Canada, and some -NAO/-EPO. can see how you'd get something ejecting out of the west into cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd. Hopefully a few folks fall thru the ice 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago End of EPS probably the best PAC look all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS. Well we do have a lot here that feel everything is going to fail from here on (1/12) out. You know the new norm and all that nonsense . But maybe the GFS won’t be alone with some of these chances as we close in. I mean 1/24 is way out there in clown range..I was more talking about the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: End of EPS probably the best PAC look all season. Way out there though. Hold that look as we close in would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Lake areas are going to get slammed coming up. Wouldn't be shocked to see Owesgo hit 200 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: End of EPS probably the best PAC look all season. Yeah the joint EPO/PNA ridge....kind of like 2015. Usually doesn't verify these days, but I'd take even just the PNA part since antecedent cold in Canada will already be good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lake areas are going to get slammed coming up. Wouldn't be shocked to see Owesgo hit 200 inches. In all fairness Anthony, I don’t think anybody cares about LE here in SNE. I mean good for them, but that doesn’t float anybody’s boat in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. Feel like this is easier said than done for many folks here … 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the joint EPO/PNA ridge....kind of like 2015. Usually doesn't verify these days, but I'd take even just the PNA part since antecedent cold in Canada will already be good. Pretty much a believe when see type thing at this point. I mean it’ll be in the heart of climo if it did materialize, so great timing there, but that’s a big IF at this point. But at least it’s showing it currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: In all fairness Anthony, I don’t think anybody cares about LE here in SNE. I mean good for them, but that doesn’t float anybody’s boat in SNE. I mean, Ray would rather we all blowtorch than three miles south of him get more snow. We’re arrogant snobs when we’re winning and full on haters when we’re losing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Snow for cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1/18 has been subtly trending a little better today....won't be that interesting unless it continues to do so for another couple of cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I mean, Ray would rather we all blowtorch than three miles south of him get more snow. We’re arrogant snobs when we’re winning and full on haters when we’re losing. Very true. Just that at least for me…I don’t care what the lakes get(good for them), but it’s so isolated and mesoscale that it doesn’t really do anything for me, other than a quick glance when they show it on the news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snow for cape That’s 1-3” for SNE as is . This winter everyone here would strip down and jump in bed to bump and grind with that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 1/18 has been subtly trending a little better today....won't be that interesting unless it continues to do so for another couple of cycles. Well there’s plenty of time..so maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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