January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He is broken as he spent his week on brokeback island in the Caribbean. Dude needs a trip to Jay Peak or Juneau somewhere to cheer his broken ass up.

That island is beautiful. 

[dryslot]

We take,

Tonight

Patchy freezing fog after 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Calm wind.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Patchy freezing fog before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Rain, mainly before midnight. Low around 33. South wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday

Increasing clouds, with a high near 42. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 27. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 30.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That island is beautiful. 

Everytime I read your sad posts it makes me think of this.

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/17wRUvSMGK/

[CoastalWx]

Looking at the extended on the EPS you normally would think that offers something. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Everytime I read your sad posts it makes me think of this.

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/17wRUvSMGK/

That’s basically me looking at the last 4 years of snow data. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

This will be a good weekend for shoveling the accumulated dogshit in the back yard.  Three dogs and two weeks of snow cover.  It will be a lot!

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It will start this season, the second half, and go wild to close out the decade. 

Honestly, I think a way CC can help is you'll get these mega juiced systems when the longwave pattern lines up correctly....you'll have some season where it goes bonkers (ala 2015 in E MA)....all the extra moisture just getting freight-trained into New England with a cold dome overhead. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This will be a good weekend for shoveling the accumulated dogshit in the back yard.  Three dogs and two weeks of snow cover.  It will be a lot!

Lips and hips played on your blue tooth speaker while you  shovel?

 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking at the extended on the EPS you normally would think that offers something. 

A little bit of Wilton on that look late in the game (after maybe a few shots at a coastal in the D10-13 range)....some people might get a little scared of the orange colors at H5 getting close to NE, but that is a frigid northern tier look with that WPO/AO domain look. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

It's been a pretty big switch this year with the WPO keeping on wanting to revert to a big negative phase. Last year, we were able to break the streak of it being largely positive, but it was still not strongly negative....it was enough with the -EPO to give us slightly BN temps. 

 

But this year, we had a raging -WPO much of December, and even when it flipped early here in January, it quickly wants to set up shop again next week. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A little bit of Wilton on that look late in the game (after maybe a few shots at a coastal in the D10-13 range)....some people might get a little scared of the orange colors at H5 getting close to NE, but that is a frigid northern tier look with that WPO/AO domain look. 

 

 

Icy setup?  Pingy?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Icy setup?  Pingy?

SE ridge with frigid cold to the north always makes those more likely but you can easily get high-QPF snow events too in that.

[Krs4Lfe]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Honestly, I think a way CC can help is you'll get these mega juiced systems when the longwave pattern lines up correctly....you'll have some season where it goes bonkers (ala 2015 in E MA)....all the extra moisture just getting freight-trained into New England with a cold dome overhead. 

Until the warmth from the CC outpaces the cold and you end up with rain from a benchmark track. That is coming sooner than we think 

[brooklynwx99]

lol you know you can get rain when a benchmark track now, right? and like 10 years ago? where do these people come from 

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Until the warmth from the CC outpaces the cold and you end up with rain from a benchmark track. That is coming sooner than we think 

Lol when I was 7 in 1964 in mid winter it rained with an offshore track. Do some research before you post.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

We take,

Tonight

Patchy freezing fog after 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Calm wind.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Patchy freezing fog before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Rain, mainly before midnight. Low around 33. South wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday

Increasing clouds, with a high near 42. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 27. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 30.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

I saw freezing fog as part of my forecast too. That should be fun in the morning.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol you know you can get rain when a benchmark track now, right? and like 10 years ago? where do these people come from 

We had multiple BM track rainstorms in January 1958. A lot of people are very ignorant of weather history....but that is my forte, so it's easy to push back on. Multiple things can be true at once (which is also hard for many)....you can be warming, but also not have every event be some new shocking paradigm. Places like interior New England are likely never warming enough to become a DCA/BWI climate....perhaps that happens to NYC at some point....but even that could be a stretch. 

[512high]

8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I saw freezing fog as part of my forecast too. That should be fun in the morning.

Please no....

[Baroclinic Zone]

Huh, 51F today. I was told that we would not break 50F during this warm period. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Honestly, I think a way CC can help is you'll get these mega juiced systems when the longwave pattern lines up correctly....you'll have some season where it goes bonkers (ala 2015 in E MA)....all the extra moisture just getting freight-trained into New England with a cold dome overhead. 

Exactly. The Rubber band is being stretched further and further, when it snaps back…boom.

[brooklynwx99]

god that is so close

[brooklynwx99]

seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Until the warmth from the CC outpaces the cold and you end up with rain from a benchmark track. That is coming sooner than we think 

Listen bro…you sound like a young silly kid?  I don’t know if that’s true or not, but you don’t know what the F you’re talking about. So reign in the BS, or stay in the NYC forum. 

[CoastalWx]

Fangs!

[Typhoon Tip]

Everyone's hung up on phasing for some reason... 

I was under the impression this 15th ish was Miller A   

Those aren't phases usually until the get past our latitudes;  the clio on Mill As is that they get captured near NS or NF and then we see why Baffin Island is basically just big bald barren rock.   

personally I haven't seen much evidence that this was going to be a subsume or any other type of phasing ?  

[Torch Tiger]

that 18z gfs..wowzers. can't get much worse

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking at the extended on the EPS you normally would think that offers something. 

So why wouldn’t it? Are you persistent forecasting? 

[Typhoon Tip]

So I'm looking for the 15th S/W spacing and it's not even in our hemisphere until 30+ hours ... that circle in the top left half way to Japan appears to trace.    

Yeah, about as close to 100% chance that this things going to morph all over hell and gone before we need to worry about it

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So why wouldn’t it? Are you persistent forecasting? 

No my point is similar looks have done nothing for the reasons we stated a few pages back. Maybe this will, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing