January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

I didn’t see anyone saying anything about keeping snow otg. That’s not the point of any of this.  It’s the advertised weeks long torch turning into a mild day or two before winter hits again next Sunday . That’s it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Northeast Weather Alert

Over the past couple of months we’ve seen the trade winds steadily weaken, and at times even flip to brief westerlies as persistent convection has taken hold across the Pacific. That’s helped kick off a down-welling Kelvin Wave, which is forcing the subsurface warm pool to rise and slide east. In plain terms  La Niña is fading right now, and the background state is already trending toward a developing +ENSO pattern as we move forward.

With all due respect  La Niña is effectively gone, even though it may still technically linger in the ocean for a short time on paper. The atmosphere has already begun shifting away from a true La Niña base state.

I’m going to hold steady on my position, because no matter who you are in this field, you can’t ignore what’s right in front of you. I don’t flip back and forth with every single model run,  I filter out the noise. 

Even in a field full of weeds, there are still solid tomatoes growing on the vine… you just have to know where  and how  to look for them.

MEI and RONi are near -1.

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CT folks bargaining on keeping their snow through the warmer period.  Usually it’s just Kevin but now it’s all of them.  Snowcrazed throwing out insults like he’s a sage.  I come to this thread in part to chuckle.  
 

Personally the warmer days should help us reset for a MUCH better pattern mid month on.  It should be fun with real threats the 2nd half of January into early February vs the cold and occasional minoring out moisture starved clipper.

Lol.. really? I thought I handled that well. 

 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CT folks bargaining on keeping their snow through the warmer period.  Usually it’s just Kevin but now it’s all of them.  Snowcrazed throwing out insults like he’s a sage.  I come to this thread in part to chuckle.  
 

Personally the warmer days should help us reset for a MUCH better pattern mid month on.  It should be fun with real threats the 2nd half of January into early February vs the cold and occasional minoring out moisture starved clipper.

Circle of Trust 2.0

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What difference does it make?

Warm spells don't count if they're advected in on SW winds?

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Warm spells don't count if they're advected in on SW winds?

I tossed the December cold because it came from Canada. What a cheap way to pull off negative anomalies. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I didn’t see anyone saying anything about keeping snow otg. That’s not the point of any of this.  It’s the advertised weeks long torch turning into a mild day or two before winter hits again next Sunday . That’s it 

Ya, I didn’t see anybody talking about keeping any snow on the ground.  Scott through that in there, and I replied I didn’t care if mine melts.  Then of course it was twisted into something completely different.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I tossed the December cold because it came from Canada. What a cheap way to pull off negative anomalies. 

#southwestwindsmatter

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I didn’t see anybody talking about keeping any snow on the ground.  Scott through that in there, and I replied I didn’t care if mine melts.  Then of course it was twisted into something completely different.  

AMATT circle jerk it seems. Let em jerk 

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What difference does it make?

First of all Ken, that was a legit question to somebody who said one day of perhaps 60.  And my only question was, I was thinking that was because we warm sectored on that cutter.  He responded with yes, and it was dry too, so that was why.   
 

I don’t understand how that upset anybody, or turned into anybody keeping snow?  So I don’t get your point.  If it’s days and days of 55-65, I’d have no issues saying so. 

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

First of all Ken, that was a legit question to somebody who said one day of perhaps 60.  And my only question was, I was thinking that was because we warm sectored on that cutter.  He responded with yes, and it was dry too, so that was why.   
 

I don’t understand how that upset anybody, or turned into anybody keeping snow?  So I don’t get your point.  If it’s days and days of 55-65, I’d have no issues saying so. 

It's all good. 

 

[binbisso]

[WxWatcher007]

Subforum on edge  

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man you are confused 

He is dead nuts right.  Can I suggest sunscreen and a big floppy hat?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, binbisso said:

50-60% chance of near normal to above. Sweet.

[dendrite]

Has anyone EVER seen them issue those maps with any of the grey shading for an increased probability of "near normal"? I can't recall ever seeing it. Instead we get that boring 33/33/33% of equal chances.

[weathafella]

They obviously think cold east outside of the Deep South and warm west.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

He is dead nuts right.  Can I suggest sunscreen and a big floppy hat?

What is wrong with CT?

[CoastalWx]

I thought I was the one having painkillers. Open bar happy hour in CT it seems. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

They obviously think cold east outside of the Deep South and warm west.

Not my first rodeo.

"leaning below"

I know I've ranted on these maps before, but I just always find them funny. I know what they're trying to imply, but they separate the probs into 3 categories (BN, N, AN) and slap a probability on each one and shade with whichever one is the highest. So they shade us in 40-50% probability of BN which translates to 50-60% (higher) chance of not BN.

[CoastalWx]

Anyways end of EPS looks nice imo. Lingering cold with a flexing Deep South/SE ridge. I’ll take my chances.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways end of EPS looks nice imo. Lingering cold with a flexing Deep South/SE ridge. I’ll take my chances.

Wait...I thought you said this morning that you didn't like that look

[Sey-Mour Snow]

All ensembles look very good day 10-15.  We are all just a bit jaded bc “when have we said that before” .. It’s time to really cash in with a good look. South of pike has to go through an ugly 4-6 days. Hopefully Pike north can cash in or at least hold the pack. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought I was the one having painkillers. Open bar happy hour in CT it seems. 

Ya I mean 90% we all lose the pack this week pike south. I’ve accepted this for about 5 days now 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All ensembles look very good day 10-15.  We are all just a bit jaded bc “when have we said that before” .. It’s time to really cash in with a good look. South of pike has to go through an ugly 4-6 days. Hopefully Pike north can cash in or at least hold the pack. 

I’ve always said that a lot of the usual suspects will whine until we get a big hit. It doesn’t matter if the pattern looks identical to Feb 2013 or Jan 2011 or Feb 2015. They will scoff and whine unless the storm is on the doorstep. That’s just the way it works. 
 

But yeah, it’s a solid look. Details TBD. I’m actually keeping my eye on the 1/7 event which a lot of mesos are starting to show a lot of CAD and even a mesolow…could be some ice issues over interior, esp if a mesolow gets going (and some snow north of that into CNE…Rgem/Ggem has snow into SNE but likely too cold.)

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wait...I thought you said this morning that you didn't like that look

So I’m looking at the NAO region and I thought that looked better. The anomalies weren’t aggressive regarding SE ridges. I do have the lingering PTSD from those setups. Besides, we have to be APATT. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All ensembles look very good day 10-15.  We are all just a bit jaded bc “when have we said that before” .. It’s time to really cash in with a good look. South of pike has to go through an ugly 4-6 days. Hopefully Pike north can cash in or at least hold the pack. 

I don’t think there is any disagreement there. But it seems like a few somehow think the next week or so somehow looks ok. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve always said that a lot of the usual suspects will whine until we get a big hit. It doesn’t matter if the pattern looks identical to Feb 2013 or Jan 2011 or Feb 2015. They will scoff and whine unless the storm is on the doorstep. That’s just the way it works. 
 

But yeah, it’s a solid look. Details TBD. I’m actually keeping my eye on the 1/7 event which a lot of mesos are starting to show a lot of CAD and even a mesolow…could be some ice issues over interior, esp if a mesolow gets going (and some snow north of that into CNE…Rgem/Ggem has snow into SNE but likely too cold.)

I had my day last week when it was clear this first wave of cold had failed, but no use in carrying on...I'm over it. Still love the look for mid and latter January.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve always said that a lot of the usual suspects will whine until we get a big hit. It doesn’t matter if the pattern looks identical to Feb 2013 or Jan 2011 or Feb 2015. They will scoff and whine unless the storm is on the doorstep. That’s just the way it works. 
 

But yeah, it’s a solid look. Details TBD. I’m actually keeping my eye on the 1/7 event which a lot of mesos are starting to show a lot of CAD and even a mesolow…could be some ice issues over interior, esp if a mesolow gets going (and some snow north of that into CNE…Rgem/Ggem has snow into SNE but likely too cold.)

Some of us watch every event. Even tonight’s and Monday

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Some of us watch every event. Even tonight’s and Monday

Some of us salute those of you.