January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When nothing works out, holding out hope in the ensembles becomes tiresome....people need more of a crutch when beaten and bruised.

Oh yeah, I understand it. That’s why I posted it.

It is still irrational behavior in an objective/scientific context but I understand why people get panicky about not seeing blizzards on 300 hour OP runs. The lack of success in the KU department recently causes irrational behavior to manifest itself in that manner.
 

I also think the utter glut of storms in the 2010s also produced irrational behavior in terms of expectations. We expected every shortwave to bomb out and give us 8-12” if not something bigger….and for a while, we kept pulling the slot level and ringing up triple 7s. It’s gone the complete opposite direction now but both outcomes are unsustainable.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Feb 2006 had the same issue Boxing Day and 2000 did....best banding was well west. I did fine, but nothing rare...

Ya, I just want a bomb crawling around the benchmark and I'll take my chances.. It's always 50/50 whether or not we get the good banding or just a solid snowfall anyways.. There's just something about tracking a bombing Nor'Easter in the Northeast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah, I understand it. That’s why I posted it.

It is still irrational behavior in an objective/scientific context but I understand why people get panicky about not seeing blizzards on 300 hour OP runs. The lack of success in the KU department recently causes irrational behavior to manifest itself in that manner.
 

I also think the utter glut of storms in the 2010s also produced irrational behavior in terms of expectations. We expected every shortwave to bomb out and give us 8-12” if not something bigger….and for a while, we kept pulling the slot level and ringing up triple 7s. It’s gone the complete opposite direction now but both outcomes are unsustainable.  

Yes, absolutely.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Very odd. 

I was just looking at bufkit, both NAM and GFS for BOS and it is going to rip tomorrow. Even the NAM which tends to undermix has gusts > 50-55 mph. 

The winds are going to be just as strong in CT and RI as they in MA. It’s just more dumb stuff from them 

[Damage In Tolland]

The ground will be white come New Year morning in most places. Decent s/w with the front 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The winds are going to be just as strong in CT and RI as they in MA. It’s just more dumb stuff from them 

yeah I don't understand why there isn't at least a wind advisory into CT and arguably even a HWW.

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ground will be white come New Year morning in most places. Decent s/w with the front 

Usually those do better for you guys in New England. Doubt we see anything but flurries here in NYC.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If DC gets hit big is usually is less impressive here but there’s been plenty that hit us very hard that hit NYC too (Feb ‘78, April ‘82, Jan ‘11, Jan ‘18, etc off the top of my head) 

Jan '96

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Jan '96

Not for my area....like 7" of sand.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not for my area....like 7" of sand.

Actually, looks like Haverhill had 16"...I would still classify that as "lesser" for my area....

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ground will be white come New Year morning in most places. Decent s/w with the front 

Decent s/w but orientation is not so great for much amplification as the flow is pretty compressed. Amplification occurs offshore. It’s moisture starved to begin with. I would not expect much at this point other than some flurries. My hoped is downstream ULL can migrate back westward some to allow heights to build ahead. Big ask at this point.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Decent s/w but orientation is not so great for much amplification as the flow is pretty compressed. Amplification occurs offshore. It’s moisture starved to begin with. I would not expect much at this point other than some flurries. My hoped is downstream ULL can migrate back westward some to allow heights to build ahead. Big ask at this point.

Looks like a period of steady light snow. Some places will get an inch or two . But most should at least whiten things up 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not for my area....like 7" of sand.

That had a pretty steep gradient to it.  I was in Acton and we managed 15". Boston was around 18 but up at UML in Lowell it was 10" I think if memory serves.  But it was 2 foot or so in Hartford.   I don't think S Vt saw much at all

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That had a pretty steep gradient to it.  I was in Acton and we managed 15". Boston was around 18 but up at UML in Lowell it was 10" I think if memory serves.  But it was 2 foot or so in Hartford.   I don't think S Vt saw much at all

Yea, sharp cut-off in NW MA.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Actually, looks like Haverhill had 16"...I would still classify that as "lesser" for my area....

Which part of Haverhill? Lol. I think the northern side is where there was 7” of sand. Massive cutoff near there. 

[Typhoon Tip]

actually HFD was in a local screw hole it looks like with "only" 16 inches...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Which part of Haverhill? Lol. I think the northern side is where there was 7” of sand. Massive cutoff near there. 

Yea, that is who I remembered it...but just found a COOP that had 15". I remember hearing Methuen had like 5-7" of sand.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is who I remembered it...but just found a COOP that had 15". I remember hearing Methuen had like 5-7"of sand.

I can can check my weather log book for that time period

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Feb 06 was awesome in West Hartford. Got 14" in 3 hours with thunder snow. Ended up with 27" I believe

Ya that was a good one here..well over two feet. All fluffy too. Fabulous storm. 

[CoastalWx]

That was my first 2’ event but that was also related to ocean effect. 

[WinterWolf]

Jan 96 took a long time to get going here…but for the days leashing up to that one, it wasn’t even thought to get up into SNE…but it kept creeping north each day as we closed in.  Was thinking…here we go with a dud…but once it got going, it was a good one.  Ended up with about 20” here. 

[ORH_wxman]

This is pretty solid for 200+ hours…forget the OP runs for a bit…maybe it doesn’t work out but you have a very definitive signal there

[ORH_wxman]

Has another period of interest a few days later too. Obviously the further you go out, the more diffuse the mean gets but that’s definitely still something. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is pretty solid for 200+ hours…forget the OP runs for a bit…maybe it doesn’t work out but you have a very definitive signal there

Can't complain about that.

[weatherwiz]

BUF gusted to 70 mph about 30 minutes ago...nice

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Based on analogs and the block decaying .. The Jan 12-16th period is what I'm watching for a "BIG DOG". With a few moderate hits before that possible. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Feb 06 was about 10-11" of Arctic sand here. not my favorite storm, though Id take it now in a hearbeat

[MJO812]

Gfs develops a little low

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually HFD was in a local screw hole it looks like with "only" 16 inches...  

Terrible representation IMO.

Multiple reports of 27 inches in SWCT, including the town that I lived in at the time (Norwalk) yet it shows 10 to 20.

[weatherwiz]

I could see accumulating snow possible for far southeastern Mass Wednesday night into Thursday with that system. That's a heck of an amplifying shortwave trough moving across the region. In fact, I would not be surprised if that ended up resulting in SLP a bit farther south and west than what the GFS has. Wouldn't take a heck of a lot to get it to blossom a bit earlier