January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[steve392]

Nice crisp morning.  Accuweather shows either 1 or 7 degrees. 

[jm1220]

Down to 6. 

[nycsnow]

Euro AI looks good for some small/moderate events after the 6th

[ForestHillWx]

2 here; a few below zero readings nearby. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Euro AI looks good for some small/moderate events after the 6th

One of those could really dig and become a Miller B with the +PNA ridge still there. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Current: the "-54" is -5 for Hackettstown and -4 for nearby Mount Olive.

[EastonSN+]

11 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Man, IDK. The more I look things over, the more I get the feeling winter is far from done with us and could be very far. Guidance is indicating a big time -AO developing at 500mb moving forward. My guess is some MJO influence in doing that. Meanwhile, here comes some real potential of a major strat PV disruption with the AO already negative. We're accustomed to a lag time of several weeks for the strat to affect the AO if at all. However, under these particular circumstances there is a possibility of basically zero lag time to see effects. If you split the vortex with an already -AO you could instead see it quickly coupling all the way through the column. Effectively prolonging and amplifying the already -AO in place, starting almost immediately. Its a possibility to do something like that this year... 

Block showing up on guidance.

 

[EastonSN+]

I cant recall the last winter that was below average temps all months AND relatively dry.

2014/15 cold snowy

2013/14 cold snowy 

2003/04 same

Maybe a year in the 1970s?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Morning low was -2.7°, my coldest so far this season. 

43.0 inches of snow so far this season and today marks day 46 with snow cover

[bluewave]

This will be our coldest December and January period for many across the area since 2010-2011 as the averages will decline further the next few days.

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-31	27.4	3
2025-01-31	28.5	0
2024-01-31	35.4	0
2023-01-31	35.4	0
2022-01-31	31.1	0
2021-01-31	31.3	0
2020-01-31	32.6	2
2019-01-31	30.4	0
2018-01-31	27.8	4
2017-01-31	32.2	0
2016-01-31	35.7	0
2015-01-31	29.1	0
2014-01-31	25.5	0
2013-01-31	32.3	0
2012-01-31	34.3	0
2011-01-31	24.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-31	30.7	3
2025-01-31	32.6	0
2024-01-31	38.3	0
2023-01-31	38.7	0
2022-01-31	35.4	0
2021-01-31	35.9	0
2020-01-31	36.7	0
2019-01-31	34.9	0
2018-01-31	31.0	0
2017-01-31	36.6	0
2016-01-31	39.9	0
2015-01-31	33.3	0
2014-01-31	30.5	0
2013-01-31	37.0	0
2012-01-31	37.7	0
2011-01-31	29.2	1

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-31	32.9	3
2025-01-31	34.7	0
2024-01-31	40.8	0
2023-01-31	41.0	0
2022-01-31	37.0	0
2021-01-31	37.0	0
2020-01-31	38.7	0
2019-01-31	36.3	0
2018-01-31	33.4	0
2017-01-31	38.2	0
2016-01-31	42.6	0
2015-01-31	35.2	0
2014-01-31	33.6	0
2013-01-31	38.3	0
2012-01-31	40.3	0
2011-01-31	31.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-31	30.1	3
2025-01-31	31.5	0
2024-01-31	37.2	0
2023-01-31	37.5	0
2022-01-31	33.0	1
2021-01-31	33.0	0
2020-01-31	35.5	3
2019-01-31	32.9	3
2018-01-31	29.5	0
2017-01-31	35.4	1
2016-01-31	38.6	0
2015-01-31	31.7	2
2014-01-31	29.4	0
2013-01-31	34.9	0
2012-01-31	37.0	0
2011-01-31	27.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-31	32.9	3
2025-01-31	33.5	0
2024-01-31	38.7	0
2023-01-31	39.0	0
2022-01-31	35.3	0
2021-01-31	35.0	0
2020-01-31	37.0	0
2019-01-31	34.6	0
2018-01-31	31.9	0
2017-01-31	36.4	0
2016-01-31	40.8	0
2015-01-31	34.1	0
2014-01-31	32.4	0
2013-01-31	36.8	0
2012-01-31	38.4	0
2011-01-31	29.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-31	31.2	3
2025-01-31	32.9	0
2024-01-31	37.7	0
2023-01-31	38.0	0
2022-01-31	34.3	0
2021-01-31	35.3	0
2020-01-31	36.4	0
2019-01-31	34.4	0
2018-01-31	31.0	0
2017-01-31	37.3	0
2016-01-31	40.2	0
2015-01-31	33.4	0
2014-01-31	31.0	0
2013-01-31	36.2	0
2012-01-31	38.4	0
2011-01-31	29.0	0

 

[rgwp96]

9 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

So nice to have the sunset time approaching 5:15pm now.

Sitting at just about 31 inches for this season, not bad at all.  I don't know my seasonal average, but I would assume around 40ish maybe? @rgwp96Any idea?

Also, this is a pretty legit cold snap.  Low single digits every night here right through the weekend.  Next week looks to "warm" a bit as we have a chance at seeing above freezing again.

My guess in 40-42 a year on average 

[Picard]

-1.5 in Sparta before I left for work.
I got all the way to -13 on the car driving through the low flat spots in Lafayette which are plentiful on the north end of town toward Rosses Corner.
 

Random nerd land question.  What's the "official" meteorological protocol for rounding off the negative numbers?  +1.5 would round to 2.  But what about -1.5?  Typically five and above rounds up, which would actually mean -1.  Are they rounding based on stated value or absolute value?  My home weather station seems to prefer the first method.  I noticed early this morning -0.5 was rounding off to a low of 0, but as soon as it clicked to -0.6, it began reporting the low as -1, so I am curious.

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, Picard said:

-1.5 in Sparta before I left for work.
I got all the way to -13 on the car driving through the low flat spots in Lafayette which are plentiful on the north end of town toward Rosses Corner.
 

Random nerd land question.  What's the "official" meteorological protocol for rounding off the negative numbers?  +1.5 would round to 2.  But what about -1.5?  Typically five and above rounds up, which would actually mean -1.  Are they rounding based on stated value or absolute value?  My home weather station seems to prefer the first method.  I noticed early this morning -0.5 was rounding off to a low of 0, but as soon as it clicked to -0.6, it began reporting the low as -1, so I am curious.

Not sure what is official, but I round to the even number.

[Freezing Drizzle]

10 minutes ago, Picard said:

-1.5 in Sparta before I left for work.
I got all the way to -13 on the car driving through the low flat spots in Lafayette which are plentiful on the north end of town toward Rosses Corner.
 

Random nerd land question.  What's the "official" meteorological protocol for rounding off the negative numbers?  +1.5 would round to 2.  But what about -1.5?  Typically five and above rounds up, which would actually mean -1.  Are they rounding based on stated value or absolute value?  My home weather station seems to prefer the first method.  I noticed early this morning -0.5 was rounding off to a low of 0, but as soon as it clicked to -0.6, it began reporting the low as -1, so I am curious.

Google it to find discussions, @Picard.  There are several ways. For example, round up towards zero, round down from zero, etc. 
Be consistent with whatever method is chosen.

[Cfa]

Low of 10 here, still haven’t gone below that yet this season.

[NorthShoreWx]

Low here 11.5⁰