January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 56 today likely wont see that or beat that again until Feb.

 

[Wannabehippie]

After having a storm come east on the 12z GFS for the tri-state area, the 18z has it further east. Not as far east, south as the Euro or Icon.

[Krs4Lfe]

For Sunday:

CMC has light snow 

UKMET has light snow 

AI models (GFS and Euro) have light-moderate snow

 ICON has light snow 

GFS has a snowstorm 

Euro has almost nothing 

For Saturday: all models have up to an inch for almost all of us. But since temps will be in low-mid 30s, there will be no accumulation 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Made it to 56 today likely wont see that or beat that again until Feb.

 

The Accu Weather long range forecast (which will undoubtedly change daily) must have bought into a colder scenario for the city. The first above 56 temperature is forecasted for the day after St Patrick’s on March 18th. Stay well, as always …

 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

ICON and RDPS are 1-4" for Saturday. We take.

Yes, but temps are AOA 32F for 95 and the coast while it's snowing and this is during daylight hours with light to moderate rates, so accumulation will be tough.  

[Wannabehippie]

32 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

For Sunday:

CMC has light snow 

UKMET has light snow 

AI models (GFS and Euro) have light-moderate snow

 ICON has light snow 

GFS has a snowstorm 

Euro has almost nothing 

For Saturday: all models have up to an inch for almost all of us. But since temps will be in low-mid 30s, there will be no accumulation 

The 18z GFS has some snow, but not nearly the amount it did on the 12z. Will the next run go further east or west? It has been all over the place. 

[Krs4Lfe]

48 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The 18z GFS has some snow, but not nearly the amount it did on the 12z. Will the next run go further east or west? It has been all over the place. 

I say further east. I think that’s the only way this storm can trend. And I think Saturday’s snow negatively interferes with Sunday and pushes the boundary level further offshore. I could see it being moderate snow for east New England and Maine though 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record breaking Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet continues to be a big story.

 

Until the record breaking northern stream of the pacific jet subsides; like in 2021 and Jan 2022, we will not reach average snowfall because there are no KU tracks. The more that the western pacific warms during the summer (record breaking marine heatwaves every year now), the lower chance we have of a KU. Might become the new normal, if it isn’t already 

[dseagull]

48 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Until the record breaking northern stream of the pacific jet subsides; like in 2021 and Jan 2022, we will not reach average snowfall because there are no KU tracks. The more that the western pacific warms during the summer (record breaking marine heatwaves every year now), the lower chance we have of a KU. Might become the new normal, if it isn’t already 

Screenshot this, and look again next week.  Helps keep things in perspective.   

[Rjay]

Pretty of quiet around here.  Goofus, cmc and rgem looked decent.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Pretty of quiet around here.  Goofus, cmc and rgem looked decent.

can you pin the storm thread and call it crusha 2026 or at least just pin it please sir

[eduggs]

The RRFS has a couple inches on Sat. N&W

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The RRFS has a couple inches on Sat. N&W

how far does that go? 84 hours

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how far does that go? 84 hours

Yes. And at 84 there is no snow yet from the developing coastal but it looks like it would be at least a minor event along the coast.

[Nibor]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Pretty of quiet around here.  Goofus, cmc and rgem looked decent.

Euro needs to join the party.

[IrishRob17]

6 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can you pin the storm thread and call it crusha 2026 or at least just pin it please sir

The only thing getting crushed is your dreams on this one. 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Nibor said:

Euro needs to join the party.

The Euro and EPS have done a better job with the Northern Stream this winter than the other guidance.

All the Northern Stream kickers have prevented the Southern Stream disturbances from developing into KU heavy benchmark coastal snowstorm tracks.

December was a unique case where we were able to get a few moderately snowy clippers tracking to our south. But this month so far we lost the record -WPO which combined with the -NAO for those two favorable tracks. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

The only thing getting crushed is your dreams on this one. 

aren't you upstate?

[SACRUS]

42 / 31 Cloudy and some stray showers as the front moves through.  Likely have reached out highs or will soon for the day.  Colder overall the next week with light snow / showers Sat-Sun-mon. Tuesday - Wed look very cold with a sub freezing day Tuesday and maybe 2 on Wed.  Tuesday looks stuck in the 20s with lows into the single digits inland.   Overall forceasts looks mainly dry beyond Monday through much of next work week.  By the 24th we'll see if we move more into a a stormier period but overall remaining below normal.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 67 (1932)
NYC: 67 (1932)
LGA: 62 (1995)
JFK: 58 (1995)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1957)
NYC: 0 (1957)
LGA: 0 (1957)
JFK: 2 (2004)

Historical: 

1780: One of the coldest times in Washington, DC history that froze all the waterways of the Middle Atlantic region including the Potomac River and most of the Chesapeake Bay. The cold started in Dec. 1779 and lasted through the first week in Feb. The coldest periods were Jan. 6-8, Jan. 13-16 and Jan. 19-29. On the northern part of the Bay, sleighs crossed from Annapolis to the Eastern Shore. To the south Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News and Portsmouth were connected by thick ice that supported foot traffic between ports.(p. 30 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)
The New York Harbor froze over completely during the famous Hard Winter of 1779-80. It would stay frozen for five weeks. Heavy cannons were transported across the ice. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1831: The Great Snowstorm, Jan. 14-16, Deep snow measuring 13 inches in Washington, DC and the Shenandoah Valley prompted an Alexandria, VA observer to state that nothing since 1809 even approached the fury of this storm. Petersburg suffered a 50-hour blizzard and eight inches of snow. The Winchester Republican reported, "Never was such a storm known here, nor does any person whom we have seen, remember to have witnessed one more severe elsewhere. The storm stretched from Georgia to Maine and west into Ohio.(Ref. The Great Snowstorm of 1831)
 

1852 - Between January 15th and February 24th a total of 1378 railroad cars were drawn by horses across the frozen Susquehanna River to engines waiting at Havre De Grace, MD. (The Weather Channel)

 

1852: In 1852, the long, cold winter froze the Susquehanna River in Maryland to a depth of 2 to 3 feet, preventing all ferry service. Railroad officials overcame this perplexing situation by laying tracks across the ice, with trestles for either bank’s inclines. During the several weeks from January 15 to February 29, approximately 1,300 cars with a total weight of 10,000 tons were hauled across the river from Havre de Grace, Maryland, to Perryville, Maryland.

1932 - Up to two inches of snow whitened the Los Angeles basin of California. The Los Angeles Civic Center reported an inch of snow, and even the beaches of Santa Monica were whitened with snow, in what proved to be a record snowstorm for Los Angeles. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1952 - A six day snowstorm was in progress in the western U.S. The storm produced 44 inches of snow at Marlette Lake NV, 52 inches at Sun Valley ID, and 149 inches at Tahoe CA, establishing single storm records for each of those three states. In addition, 24 hour snowfall totals of 22 inches at the University of Nevada, and 26 inches at Arco ID, established records for those two states. The streamliner, 'City of San Francisco' was snowbound in the Sierra Nevada Range, near Donner Summit. (David Ludlum)

1957: A deep upper level trough brought brutally cold temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Burlington, VT and Binghamton, NY set their all-time record lows with -30° and -20° respectively. Montreal, Quebec Canada recorded their lowest temperature on record as they dropped to -36°. Worcester, MA set their all-time January record low with -19°. Locations reporting daily record lows included: Caribou, ME: -28°, Syracuse, NY: -24°, Albany, NY: -20°, Casper, WY: -20°, Portland, ME: -18°, Rochester, NY: -16°, Hartford, CT: -15°, Boston, MA: -12°, Buffalo, NY: -12°, Avoca, PA: -10°, Providence, RI: -9°, Bridgeport, CT: -5°, Newark, NJ: 0°, New York (Central Park), NY: 0°, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 0° and Philadelphia, PA: 5°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1961: A nor'easter battered the Mid Atlantic region. 78 miles E of Barnegat, NJ, waves exceeding 35 feet and winds of 85 mph destroyed the Air Force radar Texas Tower 4, killing all of the 14 airmen and 14 civilian workers. The 3-legged tower was nicknamed Texas tower because it resembled the oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Tower 4 had previously been damaged by hurricanes Donna in 1960 and Daisy in 1958. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1967: The Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 35-10, in Super Bowl I at the Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles. From the weather station at the USC campus in downtown LA, the high temperature was 79 degrees, and the low was 51. There was a light west wind.

 

1972: In Flint, Michigan, the daytime temperature rose to only -3 degrees. This is the second coldest maximum temperature recorded in the city of Flint since 1921. Detroit's high temperature was zero.

1987 - A powerful storm over the Southern Plateau and the Southern Rockies produced 24 inches of snow at Colorado Springs CO, including 22 inches in 24 hours, a January record. High winds in the southwestern U.S. gusted to 65 mph in the Yosemite Valley of California. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A small storm over the Atlantic Ocean produced heavy snow along the coast of North Carolina. The five inch total at Wilmington NC was their third highest for any storm in January in 117 years of records. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm in the northwestern U.S. produced up to 14 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountain Range. Light snow in the north central U.S. was just enough to push the snowfall total for January at Fargo ND past their previous all-time monthly record of 30.7 inches.

1990 - While one Pacific storm crossed the Central Rockies, another approached the west coast. The northern mountains of Utah were buried under 17 to 35 inches of snow while the mountains of southern Utah received another 12 to 16 inches. Eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 50s and 60s. Wichita KS reported a record high of 68 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1992: January 15, 1992 A miserable day in central Illinois. An Alberta Clipper left up to 4 inches of snow in parts of Illinois; 40 -- 50 mph winds caused whiteout conditions in central Illinois in the storm's wake. Hundreds of vehicles ended up in ditches; parts of I-39, I-55, I-57, I-74 were closed. Wind chills as low as 50 °F below zero were recorded. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

1993: Fairbanks, AK measured 47 inches of snow on the ground, their deepest snow cover ever recorded. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: Temperatures in the teens and 20s across N/C GA. Water pipes burst in 2 labs at the University of Georgia in Athens. A $150,000 spectrometer was damaged in one lab. Water sprinklers in a Dalton elementary school burst, causing $40,000 damage to ceilings/walls/books. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1995: A strong southerly flow ahead of a storm across the Southeast brought record highs from the Mid-Atlantic while a few locations across the Rockies set record highs ahead of a cold front. Caribou, ME established their all-time January high temperature of 53°. Just 4 days earlier they set a record low with -33°. Locations that reported record highs for the date included: Roswell, NM: 78°, Cape Hatteras, NC: 71°, Rochester, NY: 68°, Syracuse, NY: 68°, Allentown, PA: 68°, Buffalo, NY: 67°, Providence, RI: 67°, Burlington, VT: 66° (broke previous record by 10 degrees), Boston, MA: 66°, Islip, NY: 66° (broke previous record by 10 degrees), Atlantic City, NJ: 66°, Albany, NY: 65°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 65°, Milton, MA: 64°, Hartford, CT: 63°, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 62°, Wallops Island, VA: 62°, Bridgeport, CT: 61°, Binghamton, NY: 59°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 58° and Casper, WY: 52°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Williston, ND recorded its greatest twenty-four hour snowfall when 12.6 inches of snow fell.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: The high wind gust of 45 mph from the WNW on the 15th at 0401 was the strongest wind gust recorded in January since 2000 and the strongest for the year 2006. (Annandale Weather Records)

2007: An upper level high pressure off the Southeast Coast brought record highs to parts of the East. Locations across the South and East that reported record high temperatures for the date included: Charleston, SC: 79°, Atlanta, GA: 73°, Wallops Island, VA: 70°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 68°, Atlantic City, NJ: 66°-Tied and Jackson, KY: 64°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2009: Northern Maine: Depot Mountain records a low temperature of -38 °F, and Fort Kent shivers at -32 °F. (Ref. Wx.Doctor)

[ForestHillWx]

Snow showers in my area. 

[MJO812]

Phase 6 isnt working. Hopefully things pick up when it goes into 7 and 8.

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 6 isnt working. Hopefully things pick up when it goes into 7 and 8.

Best chance is late Jan into Feb. If nothing works out then honestly I don't know what it'll take to get a significant coastal storm. 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Best chance is late Jan into Feb. If nothing works out then honestly I don't know what it'll take to get a significant coastal storm. 

We will need the northern stream to relax, but that won’t happen because of fast pacific flow. That stems from a very warm northern Pacific Ocean, especially during the summertime, as we’ve seen from the marine heat waves. This is directly linked to climate change. Unless the northern stream slows down and can phase with the southern jet, we will not have coastal storm tracks, and we will not be able to nickel and dime our way to average snowfall. Late Jan through early February won’t work out either. 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

aren't you upstate?

North of the Tappan Zee, so the Canadian border essentially to many here. 38/36 currently, waiting on the cold front, .03 of rain over the past 24 hours. <yawn>

[MJO812]

Winter will return in full force and have staying power when the MJO goes into 7 then 8 and 1. This looks great.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

I suspect the problem is more too many competing shortwaves in an evolving longwave pattern, along with a brisk northern stream, than the MJO. For the most part, the guidance has suggested that the 500 mb pattern would favor a more offshore solution than one that would bring a moderate/significant snowfall to the big cities assuming one placed greater weight on the 500 mb solutions from the higher-performing guidance. The GFS had been the notable exception with a little support from last night's GGEM. There's still some latitude for change, but a big storm is outside the range of realistic scenarios. 

Back to the MJO, since 2000, the New York City area has had several large snowstorms when the MJO was in Phase 6 at a high amplitude in January. Those storms were: January 11-12, 2011: 9.1"; January 21-22, 2014: 11.5"; and, January 31-February 3, 2021: 17.4". 

Overall, we're in a transitional situation that continues to favor smaller snowfalls, when they occur. Any snowfall is still better than none, if one likes the snow (as I do).

[IrishRob17]

37 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Snow showers in my area. 

Snow showers up here now, in Goshen, as well.

[Wannabehippie]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 6 isnt working. Hopefully things pick up when it goes into 7 and 8.

If the MJO ever gets to 7 and 8. How many times have we been teased that the MJO will go in to a phase that is conducive to snow along the Atlantic corridor, only for it to skip, and go to a different phase.

 

[SACRUS]

clearing working its way