January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Close the shades until the second week of January when the EPO goes negative.

Don’t do this to yourself - you know better my man. We can’t always just kick the can down the road. I’m not at all saying we won’t see some snow second week but to keep talking about the ripe patterns that haven’t produced anything in several years is the definition of insanity. 
 

wishing everyone a happy and hopefully snowy new year! 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Don’t do this to yourself - you know better my man. We can’t always just kick the can down the road. I’m not at all saying we won’t see some snow second week ut to keep talking about the ripe patterns that haven’t produced anything in several years is the definition of insanity. 
 

wishing everyone a happy and hopefully snowy new year! 

Thats what happened with the upcoming pattern in the first 2 weeks. People were calling for a huge storm due to the retrogading block but thats not going to happen. Thats what happened last winter also.

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Don’t do this to yourself - you know better my man. We can’t always just kick the can down the road. I’m not at all saying we won’t see some snow second week but to keep talking about the ripe patterns that haven’t produced anything in several years is the definition of insanity. 
 

wishing everyone a happy and hopefully snowy new year! 

The only times I can think of when can kicking actually worked was the big pattern change in late January 2015 and the big pattern change in late January 2021 after a mild month. Aside from that, can kicking has almost never worked. That being said, a cold and snowy December in NYC usually correlates to this entire forum doing well later on in the season. If we don't, then this will indeed be very rare territory. History is almost always on our side after having a cold, snowy december. Hopefully that pans out for us this time as well

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The only times I can think of when can kicking actually worked was the big pattern change in late January 2015 and the big pattern change in late January 2021 after a mild month. Aside from that, can kicking has almost never worked. That being said, a cold and snowy December in NYC usually correlates to this entire forum doing well later on in the season. If we don't, then this will indeed be very rare territory. History is almost always on our side after having a cold, snowy december. Hopefully that pans out for us this time as well

Plenty of years had good Decembers followed by cold and dry or mild January's before a backloaded winter. 2002-03. Even 00-01 didn't do much until 3rd week of January after the nye storm. Most years have a break of at least a few weeks 

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Plenty of years had good Decembers followed by cold and dry or mild January's before a backloaded winter. 2002-03. Even 00-01 didn't do much until 3rd week of January after the nye storm. Most years have a break of at least a few weeks 

Every winter even the great ones take breaks. But the good December Ninas usually have a Part II in Feb or even Mar. The Part II often involved blocking that slowed down the Pacific and allowed one or two KUs. This winter has not been favorable for KUs yet because it's been northern stream dominated with the same fast Pacific flow, we were just able to capitalize on luck for once with smaller clipper type systems to get us above average for snow with the cold. 2020 had a huge Dec coastal storm, Jan 2018 had the huge coastal storm, Dec 2000 etc. We'll have to see if this can be a winter where we have a good Feb-Mar without having a major Dec coastal storm. 

[Dark Star]

 

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats what happened with the upcoming pattern in the first 2 weeks. People were calling for a huge storm due to the retrogading block but thats not going to happen. Thats what happened last winter also.

I can't forsee what will happen in 2 weeks, but I am optimistic based on the relatively cold and active pattern that we are presently experiencing.  Of course, the ugly Pacific jet just doesn't quit...

[NEG NAO]

Anyone who thinks they have a handle on the longer range - should think twice before coming to any conclusions

[donsutherland1]

As noted in the general ENSO 2025-2026 thread, the forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. 

[North and West]

Great, Webb posted this yesterday on X:
 

What’s TNH? I swear people just make acronyms up now. I hope we look into OPS+ and WAR.


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[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

What’s TNH? I swear people just make acronyms up now. I hope we look into OPS+ and WAR.


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Here’s some info:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

[North and West]

Here’s some info:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

Thanks!


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[NEG NAO]

Euro long range OP says don't expect any warmth around mid month - is it right or wrong ? Anyones guess

[winterwx21]

Right now it appears that Monday's clipper is going too far north, but still 5 days to go. Hopefully we can get it to trend south so we can see a light accumulation. 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Plenty of years had good Decembers followed by cold and dry or mild January's before a backloaded winter. 2002-03. Even 00-01 didn't do much until 3rd week of January after the nye storm. Most years have a break of at least a few weeks 

True dat.  The January Thaw is not a myth.

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

What’s TNH? I swear people just make acronyms up now. I hope we look into OPS+ and WAR.


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I know what OPS is, but anything newer, I have no idea.  At one time, it would all have been in my brain.  

[psv88]

Not the best night for a light snowfall. Hopefully people drive safely 

[wthrmn654]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not the best night for a light snowfall. Hopefully people drive safely 

Snow squalls too 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As noted in the general ENSO 2025-2026 thread, the forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. 

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

LOL

[cleetussnow]

30 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

January thaw is coming early in January especially in the 6-10 day period --with the wpo negative - the epo negative the nao negative the ao going negative and the pna positive especialy after Jan. 10 chances are we will have below to well below normal temps in the east the second half of January along with the southern stream waking up. In addition another Strat Warming event is on the table for sometime next month setting the stage for a cold Feb. All of this with the MJO in the COD

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

IMO, the second half of January will have a lot more potential than the first half. Indeed, there could even be a transitional mild period that develops on or around January 7th. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Snow squalls too 

No actual squalls within 10 miles of NYC anyway.  Maybe Susses County if they hold?

[MJO812]

This is close

[MJO812]

Ball drop and squall line

[North and West]

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

Assuming you’re trolling, because no one knows anything past ten days. Sure, it could be mild, but you can always sneak a storm in. Just like it could be cold but dry.


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[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

No actual squalls within 10 miles of NYC anyway.  Maybe Susses County if they hold?

Hard to say nws thinks so. 

However, strong frontogenesis, marginal instability,
and gusty west winds along and just ahead of the cold front will
create a good chance for a line of moderate to heavy snow
showers, and perhaps a snow squall. Latest CAMs are in good
agreement at this time. The cold front will quickly move across
the area, passing eastern LI/SE CT 8-9 am.

[Dark Star]

30 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Hard to say nws thinks so. 

However, strong frontogenesis, marginal instability,
and gusty west winds along and just ahead of the cold front will
create a good chance for a line of moderate to heavy snow
showers, and perhaps a snow squall. Latest CAMs are in good
agreement at this time. The cold front will quickly move across
the area, passing eastern LI/SE CT 8-9 am.

A quick coating of snow is not a snow squall.  NYC folks don't really know what a whiteout or snow squall actually looks like.  

[MJO812]

Nam finally shows snow for NYC lol

[RU848789]

NWS bumped up snowfall totals...