26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Biggest limiting factor I see right now is saturating the lower levels. Lot of dry air to overcome. We need storm to hold its structure together for a bit longer further east, otherwise we’re looking at virga.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looking at the 06z Euro and the more I look at it, the more excited I am for some folks.

850/700mb closed off circulations as low is coming out of the GL. If those can maintain that for several hours longer as they slam into this arctic boundary, we may see some pretty hefty totals. Will also help those further east.

My counter to that is that while closed mid level lows are good, having them over NYS isn't.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Biggest limiting factor I see right now is saturating the lower levels. Lot of dry air to overcome. We need storm to hold its structure together for a bit longer further east, otherwise we’re looking at virga.

Right's...it's attenuating....closing lows over NYS and antecedent dry air doesn't scream S+ to me.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right's...it's attenuating....closing lows over NYS and antecedent dry air doesn't scream S+ to me.

E Mass Wx map?

[dendrite]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I actually agree with you Ray. EURO QPF does look a bit underdone. Not order of magnitudes treated but I could see another .1-.2 tacked on further north and east of what’s currently modeled.

There’s not a lot of moisture to work with in the profile. But if you loop the H5 vorticity trend you will see that s/w and embedded vortmax strengthening and slicing over CNE more with time. So yeah, a little dPVA and some H7 convergence and you get some mid level hangback snows after the main isentropic push affects SW SNE.

I guess the key is how moist the low levels remain. If the globals were more NE and the nams were dry I’d be more pessimistic since the nam can sniff out that virga a little better with it’s extra vertical levels…but that isn’t the case. Of course the nam could be on the sauce anyway. It’s probably best to just ride a euro/consensus blend right now. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My counter to that is that while closed mid level lows are good, having them over NYS isn't.

No argument there.

[WxWatcher007]

This is gonna be a good one for most of SNE. We’re about 12hrs from game time and the trends still look good. About all you can ask for.

Models try to get good snows even up here but I don’t have any expectations. Hope you all get crushed. 

On another note, if the neighbors didn’t think I was a  before they certainly do now. It’s -8.1° here and I just went out in a short sleeve and lounge pants to capture the sunrise. Felt good.

-8.1/-12 here at WXW2

-16/-22 WC -29 at KSLK

Man cold. 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The main push of WAA forcing is well to our SW. Some of the models have some mid level hangback lighter precip even up to here. There could be some fluff factor to that, but the whole profile is pretty cold so you have to be careful about the kuchie getting out of control.

So Brian, what is this showing…RH at 700mb?  That light blue color…is that saturation? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

No argument there.

This is why some of the same SWFE rules in terms of limitations are applicable here...we get there a bit differently, but this is essentially a SWFE in which the cold ultimately winds....usually in those the warmth does in a relative sense.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is gonna be a good one for most of SNE. We’re about 12hrs from game time and the trends still look good. About all you can ask for.

Models try to get good snows even up here but I don’t have any expectations. Hope you all get crushed. 

On another note, if the neighbors didn’t think I was a  before they certainly do now. It’s -8.1° here and I just went out in a short sleeve and lounge pants to capture the sunrise. Felt good.

-8.1/-12 here at WXW2

-16/-22 WC -29 at KSLK

Man cold. 

Gorgeous sunrise Don…soak it up. Great analysis too on this evolution the last couple days. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why some of the same SWFE rules in terms of limitations are applicable here...we get there a bit differently, but this is essentially a SWFE in which the cold ultimately winds....usually in those the warmth does in a relative sense.

NWFE…? Lol. Which is a SWFE in reverse. But similar idea..just from a different direction…and reverse the warm air winning out as you said, and replace it with the cold winning. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why some of the same SWFE rules in terms of limitations are applicable here...we get there a bit differently, but this is essentially a SWFE in which the cold ultimately winds....usually in those the warmth does in a relative sense.

I was thinking that or just a clipper on a bit of HGH. Hoping we can see some more positive trends for us further east today. I fell NY over to WCT are locked in. My other feature to keep an eye on is the linger lighter stuff as the low exits east. We have an easterly fetch to the winds that may give coastal areas lingering OES fluff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

NWFE…? Lol. Which is a SWFE in reverse. But similar idea..just from a different direction…and reverse the warm air winning out as you said, and replace it with the cold winning. 

Well, it's not coming up from the south and running west of us....it's a northern stream storm that rides east through the lakes, closes off, and then hits the confluence, turns se and begins to fall apart.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So Brian, what is this showing…RH at 700mb?  That light blue color…is that saturation? 

Yeah that’s RH and wind streamlines at 700. The shading is RH…blue >95%. But you can see where those streamlines all converge in an axis NW-SE through New England where that light QPF hangs on. I could post the vorticity too and you’d see a max punching through here. Older runs were a little more flat and diffuse with shortwave energy. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it's not coming up from the south and running west of us....it's a northern stream storm that rides east through the lakes, closes off, and then hits the confluence, turns se and begins to fall apart.

Yeah it’s going to be good, but we’re kinda trying to catch a falling knife. Conditions were aligned nearly perfectly to bring this “north trend” (for days we knew the scale of the WAA meant the models overcorrected south to some extent) and while that’s great it’s shredding as it goes east.

Most look to be just close enough while it’s still dynamic to cash in but there are definitely still risks the further north and east you are. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that’s RH and wind streamlines at 700. The shading is RH…blue >95%. But you can see where those streamlines all converge in an axis NW-SE through New England where that light QPF hangs on. I could post the vorticity too and you’d see a max punching through here. Older runs were a little more flat and diffuse with shortwave energy. 

Nice to point out that s/w energy Brian. I’ve seen that hanging back and consolidating over the last 12-24hrs.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nice to point out that s/w energy Brian. I’ve seen that hanging back and consolidating over the last 12-24hrs.

Ok so maybe a dumb question here from somebody not quite as versed as others…but if the S/W energy is hanging back and consolidating the hast 12 hrs…wouldn’t that be a small sign that the system is not weakening/attenuating, but rather showing signs of the opposite?  Or am I completely not understanding . 

[ORH_wxman]

There’s gonna be some strong bands in this because of how strong the fronto is….esp in western areas. It starts to weaken pretty fast once it crosses central areas but there’s still enough to produce decent snows. But further west it could pound at 2” per hour for a time. I think most of SNE will reach advisory snows…the question is how far northeast can the warning snows reach. I feel like right now it’s prob like a PSF-WST line…but inching that another 25 miles or so makes a big difference in affecting a lot more people (you start to include ORH and some of the towns east of there.) 

[ineedsnow]

Early on but looks like the 12z HRRR won't disappoint 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like maybe we CJ. Hope Emasswx hits that hard.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok so maybe a dumb question here from somebody not quite as versed as others…but if the S/W energy is hanging back and consolidating the hast 12 hrs…wouldn’t that be a small sign that the system is not weakening/attenuating, but rather showing signs of the opposite?  Or am I completely not understanding . 

Correct. I’m still pretty nooby about these things still so I’ll still defer to the more experienced folks to fill in.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like maybe we CJ. Hope Emasswx hits that hard.

That will be fluff

[weatherwiz]

6z NAM bufkit for BDL. When I see -30 into the DGZ I get all tingly 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s gonna be some strong bands in this because of how strong the fronto is….esp in western areas. It starts to weaken pretty fast once it crosses central areas but there’s still enough to produce decent snows. But further west it could pound at 2” per hour for a time. I think most of SNE will reach advisory snows…the question is how far northeast can the warning snows reach. I feel like right now it’s prob like a PSF-WST line…but inching that another 25 miles or so makes a big difference in affecting a lot more people (you start to include ORH and some of the towns east of there.) 

Just couldn’t include TOL in there ?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just couldn’t include TOL in there ?

Stops at Vernon

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just couldn’t include TOL in there ?

Lol . Cobb Bufkit implies 8 plus for you. Ratios end up 12 to 1

[ariof]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Stops at Vernon

Me on I-84 pulling into Reins.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s gonna be some strong bands in this because of how strong the fronto is….esp in western areas. It starts to weaken pretty fast once it crosses central areas but there’s still enough to produce decent snows. But further west it could pound at 2” per hour for a time. I think most of SNE will reach advisory snows…the question is how far northeast can the warning snows reach. I feel like right now it’s prob like a PSF-WST line…but inching that another 25 miles or so makes a big difference in affecting a lot more people (you start to include ORH and some of the towns east of there.) 

You can see that on the soundings...cross hair sig out in Westfield, but it get smore diffuse further east.

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Seems to be expanding the snow shield in lieu of moving north. Here is SW CT it appears the snow amount has not dropped off.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

6z NAM bufkit for BDL. When I see -30 into the DGZ I get all tingly 

So what’s that mean Paul? Great snow growth?