Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It would certainly be unusual. The New York City area hasn't seen many 4" or greater snowstorms when the PNA has been negative. Lighter amounts are far more common. Boston is usually favored with 4" or above amounts. 

Hey Don I may be mistaken however did this storm occur during a slightly negative PNA? January 27/28 2004.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Icon came south a bit

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don I may be mistaken however did this storm occur during a slightly negative PNA? January 27/28 2004.

 

 

 

No. Below are the PNA values:

2004  1 27  0.127
2004  1 28  0.228

[MJO812]

Gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

Monmouth county is going to win on that GfS run but overall a great run for all of us!

[David-LI]

GFS looks great for the NYC metro! Get your snow shovels and salt ready again.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

GFS looks great for the NYC metro! Get your snow shovels and salt ready again.

this one could be the bigger storm of the year. the ceiling is 6-12 on this one if all goes perfect 

[SnowGoose69]

Neither the AI or Op GFS changed much from 12z

[David-LI]

I GOTTA GET THE BREAD AND MILK!

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS keeps the temperature's below freezing even in the city for the entire event! 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If there is in fact a snowstorm Friday-Saturday in the NYC metro with a PNA that strongly negative (full-latitude trough down to Baja), then it will be remembered as an extremely anomalous event 

I agree but we've been experiencing a lot of atypical patterns and outcomes. Like how a strongly negative AO/NAO linked up with a SE ridge last winter, something that was unheard of. 

GFS also did poorly with the last snow event so take its outcome with a grain of salt. I would favor SNE to get it over us 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS keeps the temperature's below freezing even in the city for the entire event! 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS keeps the temperature's below freezing even in the city for the entire event! 

Shift that north 100 miles. Probably the real solution

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Shift that north 100 miles. Probably the real solution

what is your reasoning for this?

 

Any real scientific reasoning or you are just wishcasting like snowman

[mannynyc]

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what is your reasoning for this?

 

Any real scientific reasoning or you are just wishcasting like snowman

Gfs is usually wrong and too suppressed in this range. 

Needs some support from cmc and ukie if I'm going to buy it

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is usually wrong and too suppressed in this range. 

fair enough...let's see what happens

[mattinpa]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is usually wrong and too suppressed in this range. 

That said, I wonder if this will go too far north despite the other models. Will track - wish was on Christmas instead. 

[David-LI]

9 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

I guess I'll take number 18 with extra fries please