Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem looks mostly unchanged. The mix line surges and then stalls around a Nb to SMQ line

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I don't think anyone would argue against a decent snowfall before a change over. Some here, as is tradition, are looking at snow maps and not soundings setting themselves up for disappointment.

That is simply not true. Will some areas change over for a time as the precip lightens up? Maybe. NWS still has 6 inches or so for basically the entire NYC metro and they increased amounts slightly overnight. Are they just looking at snow maps also? 

[brooklynwx99]

the vort trending more amplified is actually good… we get mid level forcing along with the WAA, allowing for more liquid initially (which is when most of the snow falls, anyway)

[EasternLI]

16 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

850-700mb vertical velocity is the X factor. Really only about a 6 hour window for it to shine. Stronger, we stay snow, and heavy snow. Weaker, we ping. 

Area to watch is higher up actually. DGZ in this is way up around 500mb so look higher for the banding signatures in models. But there is a sneaky warm layer to keep track of too ~750mb. This sounding is from somewhere near the sleet line.

 

 

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That is simply not true. Will some areas change over for a time as the precip lightens up? Maybe. NWS still has 6 inches or so for basically the entire NYC metro and they increased amounts slightly overnight. Are they just looking at snow maps also? 

This is from their discussion:

Soundings depict a warm nose above H7 that if slightly undermodeled, could allow
for more in the way of ice pellets, particularly for NYC and
points south and west. This potential is currently not expected
to impact snow accumulations, but will have to be monitored.

I'm just flagging something that should give pause

[495weatherguy]

Just now, Nibor said:

This is from their discussion:

Soundings depict a warm nose above H7 that if slightly undermodeled, could allow
for more in the way of ice pellets, particularly for NYC and
points south and west. This potential is currently not expected
to impact snow accumulations, but will have to be monitored.

I'm just flagging something that should give pause

Warm noses always seem to over perform. Or come out of nowhere 

[Nibor]

Just now, 495weatherguy said:

Warm noses always seem to over perform. Or come out of nowhere 

It could also be overdone. It's just something to watch.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

This is from their discussion:

Soundings depict a warm nose above H7 that if slightly undermodeled, could allow
for more in the way of ice pellets, particularly for NYC and
points south and west. This potential is currently not expected
to impact snow accumulations, but will have to be monitored.

I'm just flagging something that should give pause

Yea and? They are aware and don't expect it to affect accumulations and increased amounts. Most of the snow is going to fall in a 6 hour timeframe when precip is heavy. I could see a mix in southern areas mostly after the damage has been done. 

[Krs4Lfe]

Accuweather only has 3-6" for most of us, with the 6-12" reserved for interior upstate New York

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Accuweather only has 3-6" for most of us, with the 6-12" reserved for interior upstate New York

They are typically a bit conservative 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Accuweather only has 3-6" for most of us, with the 6-12" reserved for interior upstate New York

That sounds accurate 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Nibor said:

This is from their discussion:

Soundings depict a warm nose above H7 that if slightly undermodeled, could allow
for more in the way of ice pellets, particularly for NYC and
points south and west. This potential is currently not expected
to impact snow accumulations, but will have to be monitored.

I'm just flagging something that should give pause

Yep always something to keep in mind with a strong 700mb low to our NW. Could be a sneaky warm layer in there that takes over if/when snow rates reduce. 

[MJO812]

Gfs

[eduggs]

People like the rip the NAM. But it looks like the GFS was wrong about keeping heavy snow out of ENY (ALB) and most of SNE. It's been shifting steadily for two days. The GFS was also too snowy in EPA (PHL) and SNJ. The NAM looks to have been much faster to pick up on these trends.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

It was just a SMIDGE warmer.

 

[EastonSN+]

[kat5hurricane]

Insane line at Stop & Shop. You'd think this was Boxing Day Blizzard Part 2 smh

[eduggs]

84 hour GFS forecast for reference

[Northof78]

NAM/GFS (and others) now all in agreement for 5" - 10" for NYC metro. Enjoy! 

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, eduggs said:

84 hour GFS forecast for reference

Yeah GFS caved on this one big time from Philly to central NJ. Last run has Central NJ with almost all sleet. Looks like south of NYC is the cutoff zone. This thing wraps up pretty quickly too, should be finished by 4 AM. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great Odin's Raven what on earth is that?

[winterwarlock]

Gfs caving

[MJO812]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Gfs caving

Barely

Enjoy the snow

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Great Odin's Raven what on earth is that?

Snow depth

No one really uses this

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Gfs caving

caving to what ? I mean GFS hasn't wavered since day 4

[EastonSN+]

Both GFS and NAM moved towards the 0z EURO. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Snow depth

No one really uses this

I wanted to use Kutchera but therebis a ban.

IMO 10 to 1 is useless cause it counts sleet as snow so the snow depth is rhe next best.

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Gfs caving

Caving to what?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wanted to use Kutchera but therebis a ban.

IMO 10 to 1 is useless cause it counts sleet as snow so the snow depth is rhe next best.

They banned kuchera ? Lol

[winterwarlock]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Caving to what?

For my area in CJ