Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Patrick-02540]

16 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Queue the “the airmass is cold” posts, I’ll start: damn it’s cold outside even in Manhattan! 20/6

I'm at 20 here in Manhattan.  My farmhouse in Litchfield County CT is 9.  Heading up there in two hours.  Roaring wood stove and incoming snows.  Hopefully we all do well with this system.  

[SnoSki14]

Hopefully more snow than ice. Snow/sleet is very disruptive compared to just snow and it's a huge pain to clean up. 

Hopefully timing is after rush hour

[lee59]

NWS increased my totals overnight from 4-8 to 5-9

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

NWS increased my totals overnight from 4-8 to 5-9

They increased it for most if not all of the immediate metro areas

[wishcast_hater]

Look at the STLR for my neck of the woods!

Snow to liquid ratios will be at
or above the climo normals in the 13-17:1 range from south to
north across the forecast area. The precipitation efficiency
will be the best in the southern most zones based on the latest
hi resolution and short range guidance, as the best dendritic
growth zone will be higher across the northern zones. All said,
a widespread moderate to locally heavy snow event is expected
over the forecast area.


.

[psv88]

WSW for 5-9” out this way. Pretty easy forecast for central LI. 
 

much harder for NJ/CT/MA

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

How did the 6z EURO look.

[NittanyWx]

Found it interesting that this was another event where a couple AI models kinda sniffed out the trend a run or two before the globals.

 

That said, I think the Euro got its shine on this one.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

Found it interesting that this was another event where a couple AI models kinda sniffed out the trend a run or two before the globals.

 

That said, I think the Euro got its shine on this one.

I did not see the 6z EURO but hope it was even better than 0z

[psv88]

GFS shifting south!

NYC might get whiffed now…

[NEG NAO]

14 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I think it was a mistake that Mt. Holly lowered its Winter Storm Watch to an Advisory in North Central NJ - for one it sends the wrong message to the public.......many will think the storm is no big deal and start traveling when they should have stayed home....

I wonder if Mt. Holly reads this forum - they changed their advisory overnight to a Winter Storm  Warning for North Central NJ

[lee59]

Fairly consistent storm track for a few days now, just some minor shifts north and south.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Fairly consistent storm track for a few days now, just some minor shifts north and south.

For Long Island yes. Nothing has changed for days here. 

[Roger Smith]

06z GFS may have an operational error there showing no snow over all of Long Island while precip panels maintain previous spread of shield, either that or the model now thinks it would fall as freezing rain.

The way the cold air has settled, can't see this being realistic, 7 to 10 inch snows quite possible everywhere but within 10 inches of CPK ruling device. Local 10-14 possible at higher elevations n NJ and se NY. 

 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

06z GFS may have an operational error there showing no snow over all of Long Island while precip panels maintain previous spread of shield, either that or the model now thinks it would fall as freezing rain.

The way the cold air has settled, can't see this being realistic, 7 to 10 inch snows quite possible everywhere but within 10 inches of CPK ruling device. Local 10-14 possible at higher elevations n NJ and se NY. 

 

What? The GFS is a smoke job for Long Island. Where are you looking?

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, psv88 said:

What? The GFS is a smoke job for Long Island. Where are you looking?

How about for NYC

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

06z GFS may have an operational error there showing no snow over all of Long Island while precip panels maintain previous spread of shield, either that or the model now thinks it would fall as freezing rain.

The way the cold air has settled, can't see this being realistic, 7 to 10 inch snows quite possible everywhere but within 10 inches of CPK ruling device. Local 10-14 possible at higher elevations n NJ and se NY. 

 

Definitely don’t think this will be a whiff here lol. I think most of us are good too outside of central NJ/I-78 and S and maybe southern NYC, for them hopefully we see a NAM tick south at 12z. I don’t think this will be around long enough for 10”+ aside from maybe a lucky spot here or there, but 6-9” for most is definitely a solid event. 

[Roger Smith]

snowdepth change graphic, never shows any accum on Long Island. 

I need to make it clear that I understand how to read weather models and I consider this an operational error in the GFS model, not valid guidance. I have made no forecast assumptions after seeing this erroneous graphic. Thank you for your attention to this matter (is that how it goes?)

 

[psv88]

Just now, Roger Smith said:

snowdepth change graphic, never shows any accum on Long Island. 

 

Lol. It shows a QPF bomb. It’s likely an issue with the product you are looking at. The GFS shows a huge hit. Don’t look at maps like that like that. Look at soundings and QPF

[Roger Smith]

I didn't say I agreed with it, I said it was an operational error. It definitely shows zero snowfall on Long Island. But that's not my forecast. 

[NittanyWx]

 

standard NYC snowfall pattern.

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I didn't say I agreed with it, I said it was an operational error. It definitely shows zero snowfall on Long Island. But that's not my forecast. 

That’s not the weather model. That’s an algorithm interpreting its output. Two entirely different things 

[BoulderWX]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

How about for NYC

It was great for NYC - like 8-10 @10:1

[Stormlover74]

Nams a little better. Came south a bit

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nams a little better. Came south a bit

Yep

[psv88]

NAM no longer shows sleet to Plattsburgh.

one of the benefits of being a veteran at this hobby. Knowing when to stay the course and not panic over the NAM. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Big difference from last run below.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

NAM no longer shows sleet to Plattsburgh.

one of the benefits of being a veteran at this hobby. Knowing when to stay the course and not panic over the NAM. 

Now it's stingy as hell with QPF though lol. The 3k only has like 0.4" liquid here. Thankfully that's on its own. This model should be taken out back to the woodshed and decapitated. I can see something like that though if the main overrunning snow band goes north of here and we're stuck in subsidence waiting for the meat of the precip to come through. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

Reasonable, I'd say 4-8 as due to decent upside potential. My exact estimate for CPK is 5.

The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Now it's stingy as hell with QPF though lol. The 3k only has like 0.4" liquid here. Thankfully that's on its own. This model should be taken out back to the woodshed and decapitated. I can see something like that though if the main overrunning snow band goes north of here and we're stuck in subsidence waiting for the meat of the precip to come through. 

Always possible. Every model shows 0.4 to 0.9 of QPF. Time to get the snowblowers ready and enjoy.