BxEngine Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Absolutely. Short range models like the NAM have a knack for noticing this stuff. And it wouldn’t really be a shock for a SWFE to be mainly sleet for our area, would it? That’s how it usually goes This isnt an swfe 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 RGEM looks a bit better as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Rgem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DT NY Metro Weather has NYC as 3-5”. Rest have a general 5-8.” They seem to think we will thump then sleet rest of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, Krs4Lfe said: NY Metro Weather has NYC as 3-5”. Rest have a general 5-8.” They seem to think we will thump then sleet rest of the night Show proof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Rgem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Not trending the best. But a few days ago was a rainstorm. I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 36 minutes ago, RU848789 said: My NWS point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the snowmaps haven't actually been updated (people keep posting the same map from 4 am with new time stamps on them). I have no idea what to think. NWS finally updated their map, below, which shows Metuchen just about on the 6" line which kind of is within the 3-5" range for us in the advisory, but is also within the 4-8" range on my point and click. This snowfall map also makes sense with the warnings for ~6" for Morris/Warren and Sussex. They really need to issue their updates across all products at the same time or close to it, not over 2+ hours (their advisories/warnings were issued around 1 pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 It's a shame the RAP has a known cold bias, because this would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Not trending the best. But a few days ago was a rainstorm. I’ll take it What? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 5 minutes ago, mob1 said: It's a shame the RAP has a known cold bias, because this would be incredible. Rooting for nyc to cash in so then we can all win come January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted December 25, 2025 Author Share Posted December 25, 2025 7 minutes ago, mob1 said: It's a shame the RAP has a known cold bias, because this would be incredible. do you have the snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Nam is a horrible model. Throw it out unless the other models move to it. This is the only type of scenario where I don't dismiss the NAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What? Come on the best has shifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is the only type of scenario where I don't dismiss the NAM We go through this every year the Nam is good at showing the mix line which always ends up further north in the end alot of denial out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, Brian5671 said: We got through this every year the Nam is good at showing the mix line which always ends up further north in the end alot of denial out there Agree but the NAM showing what it does doesn't mean it's right either especially when it's own 3k disagrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: We go through this every year the Nam is good at showing the mix line which always ends up further north in the end alot of denial out there NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: do you have the snowmap Only goes out to 21 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, psv88 said: NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that? Prob too aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, psv88 said: NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that? No but I bet it’s further north than most think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted December 25, 2025 Author Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: No but I bet it’s further north than most think bro nam is the crappiest model of all. It's getting discontinued for a reason! NYC is in a great spot for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that? The entire evolution of the storm is a bit too aggressive and too far north on the NAM, but the sleet line will likely be a lot further north that the what the other models show. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: bro nam is the crappiest model of all. It's getting discontinued for a reason! NYC is in a great spot for this storm Your missing my point I’m talking about its ability to sniff out mid level warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted December 25, 2025 Author Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Your missing my point I’m talking about its ability to sniff out mid level warmth nam can't sniff anything anymore it's a terrible model i haven't looked at nam since 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: as i noted, in march 2017 i watched a 2 foot blizzard devolve into several inches of sleet; the sleet reached far and wide and no one, even where it snowed, got the 2 feet...but that was in march. That depends on where you were. Places well north and west of the city did get a heavy snow event with this one. Allentown had 17”. Places in upstate NY measured into the feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Your missing my point I’m talking about its ability to sniff out mid level warmth NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Rooting for nyc to cash in so then we can all win come January. That has no correlation. NYC cashing in on a snowstorm doesn't mean everyone is going to win come January. For all we know, DC could end up with a final season snow total of 3-4" (see below). 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: That depends on where you were. Places well north and west of the city did get a heavy snow event with this one. Allentown had 17”. Places in upstate NY measured into the feet. That season had one of the oddest snow distributions ever. Places in upstate NY finished the season with over 150 inches of snow, while places like Baltimore and DC finished with less than 4 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time Not every time. It’s been too aggressive in the past. Last Feb’s SWFE it was too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time Maybe if it wss consistent but so far its still bouncing around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: bro nam is the crappiest model of all. It's getting discontinued for a reason! NYC is in a great spot for this storm That's probably denial speaking. I'm concerned and I'm 50 miles north of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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