Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[BxEngine]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Absolutely. Short range models like the NAM have a knack for noticing this stuff. And it wouldn’t really be a shock for a SWFE to be mainly sleet for our area, would it? That’s how it usually goes 

This isnt an swfe

[mob1]

RGEM looks a bit better as well

[MJO812]

Rgem

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT

NY Metro Weather has NYC as 3-5”. Rest have a general 5-8.” They seem to think we will thump then sleet rest of the night 

[MJO812]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

NY Metro Weather has NYC as 3-5”. Rest have a general 5-8.” They seem to think we will thump then sleet rest of the night 

Show proof

[MJO812]

Rgem

[WestBabylonWeather]

Not trending the best. But a few days ago was a rainstorm. I’ll take it 

[RU848789]

36 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

My NWS point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the snowmaps haven't actually been updated (people keep posting the same map from 4 am with new time stamps on them). I have no idea what to think.

NWS finally updated their map, below, which shows Metuchen just about on the 6" line which kind of is within the 3-5" range for us in the advisory, but is also within the 4-8" range on my point and click. This snowfall map also makes sense with the warnings for ~6" for Morris/Warren and Sussex. They really need to issue their updates across all products at the same time or close to it, not over 2+ hours (their advisories/warnings were issued around 1 pm).  
 

 

[mob1]

It's a shame the RAP has a known cold bias, because this would be incredible. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Not trending the best. But a few days ago was a rainstorm. I’ll take it 

What?

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's a shame the RAP has a known cold bias, because this would be incredible. 

Rooting for nyc to cash in so then we can all win come January. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's a shame the RAP has a known cold bias, because this would be incredible. 

do you have the snowmap

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is a horrible model. Throw it out unless the other models move to it.

This is the only type of scenario where I don't dismiss the NAM

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What?

Come on the best has shifted north 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is the only type of scenario where I don't dismiss the NAM

We go through this every year the Nam is good at showing the mix line which always ends up further north in the end alot of denial out there 

[Rjay]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

We got through this every year the Nam is good at showing the mix line which always ends up further north in the end alot of denial out there 

Agree but the NAM showing what it does doesn't mean it's right either especially when it's own 3k disagrees. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

We go through this every year the Nam is good at showing the mix line which always ends up further north in the end alot of denial out there 

NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that?

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

do you have the snowmap

Only goes out to 21 hours 

[Rjay]

Just now, psv88 said:

NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that?

Prob too aggressive 

[Brian5671]

Just now, psv88 said:

NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that?

No but I bet it’s further north than most think 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

No but I bet it’s further north than most think 

bro nam is the crappiest model of all. It's getting discontinued for a reason! NYC is in a great spot for this storm

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that?

The entire evolution of the storm is a bit too aggressive and too far north on the NAM, but the sleet line will likely be a lot further north that the what the other models show. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro nam is the crappiest model of all. It's getting discontinued for a reason! NYC is in a great spot for this storm

Your missing my point I’m talking about its ability to sniff out mid  level warmth

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Your missing my point I’m talking about its ability to sniff out mid  level warmth

nam can't sniff anything anymore it's a terrible model i haven't looked at nam since 2016

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

as i noted, in march 2017 i watched a 2 foot blizzard devolve into several inches of sleet; the sleet reached far and wide and no one, even where it snowed, got the 2 feet...but that was in march.

That depends on where you were.  Places well north and west of the city did get a heavy snow event with this one.  Allentown had 17”.  Places in upstate NY measured into the feet. 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Your missing my point I’m talking about its ability to sniff out mid  level warmth

NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Rooting for nyc to cash in so then we can all win come January. 

That has no correlation. NYC cashing in on a snowstorm doesn't mean everyone is going to win come January. For all we know, DC could end up with a final season snow total of 3-4" (see below).

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That depends on where you were.  Places well north and west of the city did get a heavy snow event with this one.  Allentown had 17”.  Places in upstate NY measured into the feet. 

That season had one of the oddest snow distributions ever. Places in upstate NY finished the season with over 150 inches of snow, while places like Baltimore and DC finished with less than 4 inches of snow.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time 

Not every time. It’s been too aggressive in the past. Last Feb’s SWFE it was too aggressive. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time 

Maybe if it wss consistent but so far its still bouncing around

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro nam is the crappiest model of all. It's getting discontinued for a reason! NYC is in a great spot for this storm

That's probably denial speaking. I'm concerned and I'm 50 miles north of the city.