Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON coming in relatively unchanged.  Still favors NY and points N and W. 

[mob1]

I think this is a tad colder than its previous run, but nothing noteworthy. 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Speaking of dog sleds my 12 year old psychotic boxer is gonna get the cops called on us. She refuses to come inside when its snowing. I have to chase her down and carry her in and she throws a fit like a toddler. 

i got neighbors like that; call animal control because the dog is outside too long; yet they throw food around for the birds and that makes the dogs bark. i'm about to call on them but i'm not sure which idiot is making the calls. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I think this is a bit colder than its previous run. 

so it could be north, or it could be south, or it could be central....what if i go outside and swing a cat over my head 9 times, will that help?

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

There's numerous videos of huskies doing that while crying bloody murder when being carried down road back home and everyone coming outside seeing who's dying! 

i've got poodles...and they love snow. it sticks to their curls like velcro and forms snowballs all over them....it's kinda funny actually.

[mob1]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

so it could be north, or it could be south, or it could be central....what if i go outside and swing a cat over my head 9 times, will that help?

Spinclockwise at warp speed to strenghten the HP and get a better CAD signature. 

On a serious note, this kind of uncertainty is not unusual at this range and the emotional roller coaster is part of it. 

[eduggs]

Quick glance at ICON and RGEM - didn't look like any major changes run to run. That should be comforting at this stage I think.

The RGEM being north suggests the models taking it far south are not likely on the right track. The warm 700mb temps on the RGEM are a potential concern for sleet.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

I still have snow on the ground in my portion of the immediate metro. Weird. 

Upstate? Could be.

We give you some leeway

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I think this is a tad colder than its previous run, but nothing noteworthy. 

It beefed up amounts around the city and north jersey otherwise pretty similar

[EastonSN+]

SLIGHT bump south on the RGEM.

[Stormlover74]

12z rrfs is already coming in way north so that was a fluke run

[SnowGoose69]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That would be nuts

The RRFS has had severe suppression biases so far on every system I have used it for this season beyond 48-60.  Its a bit concerning for sure, but once inside 48 its blown away the HRRR as far as thermal profiles...if anything its been a bit too warm but I'd rather that than the HRRR bias of always being 1-2C too cold aloft.

[eduggs]

As expected, the 12z RRFS adjusted the precip. shield northeast towards model consensus, but it is (like the FV3) still very cold and suppressed compared to other guidance.

[Stormlover74]

 

Crushes Philly this run

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This time the cold air will be in place. The other storm the cold air was coming in after the precipitation started. 

Models did really suck on thermals the last 2 snow events but for totally different reasons and also the bias was largely bad beyond 24-30.  The first event the fact we had sun all day hurt us, the 2nd the SW flow is always something you have to account for and until the final 24 models overlooked how far DPs would rise.  This time we have 23/6 and 28/8 as spreads when snow starts with a 010-030 wind.  We are good even if we have a bit of a cool error at this range.

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i've got poodles...and they love snow. it sticks to their curls like velcro and forms snowballs all over them....it's kinda funny actually.

My crazy cat likes the snow

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

As expected, the 12z RRFS adjusted the precip. shield northeast towards model consensus, but it is (like the FV3) still very cold and suppressed compared to other guidance.

Seems like the metro is in a good spot between the suppressed models and those further north 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like the metro is in a good spot between the suppressed models and those further north 

This is about as good a shot as you're getting in a pattern like this for 4 at NYC, thats for sure.  I think this is mainly 3-5 or 3-6 with some places in banding seeing more but I'd be wary of going 5-8 or 6-10 with this as I see some mets doing, even if we get 12 or 13:1 which is possible for awhile but given the 750-850 layer probably approaches -1 or so, even in the prime accumulation locales we'll fall back closer to 10:1 even with SFC temps in the low 20s

[David-LI]

Isn't the RRFS a very short range model? Better within 24hrs?

[coastalplainsnowman]

30 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

There's numerous videos of huskies doing that while crying bloody murder when being carried down road back home and everyone coming outside seeing who's dying! 

Just the other day I stumbled into a thread highlighted in a twitter post, in which people were asking for advice on whether they should call the animal services, 911, etc  due to a neighbor 'leaving' their huskies out in the cold and snow.  Consistent with what you guys are saying here, the replies were along the lines of 'huskies love the cold and snow, they probably insist on staying outside'  They said that if it's cold and raining that's a different story, but if it's dry it's totally fine and the dogs love it.  My faith in humanity ticked up a bit. and I was actually pleasantly surprised to see, that the people asking about it had the sense to ask first before calling the police.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Isn't the RRFS a very short range model? Better within 24hrs?

Yes. Ride the globals. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Isn't the RRFS a very short range model? Better within 24hrs?

Yeah I wouldn't use it now. Its bouncing all over

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Isn't the RRFS a very short range model? Better within 24hrs?

The hope was it would be better than the NAM at 48-84 and the HRRR at 48 but so far its been as bad or worse than the NAM in that range.  Its best feature is its been handling the mid levels as good as the 3km NAM or better and worlds better than the HRRR.   I still think that the NWS will let the NAM run for several years with no upgrades as they did the NGM because people will want access to its MOS product.  The RRFS will have no MOS product due to its resolution evidently which would make it overly sensitive to microclimate features so we'd be down to just the GFS MOS and that is all once the NAM is DFA'd

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Just the other day I stumbled into a thread highlighted in a twitter post, in which people were asking for advice on whether they should call the animal services, 911, etc  due to a neighbor 'leaving' their huskies out in the cold and snow.  Consistent with what you guys are saying here, the replies were along the lines of 'huskies love the cold and snow, they probably insist on staying outside'  They said that if it's cold and raining that's a different story, but if it's dry it's totally fine and the dogs love it.  My faith in humanity ticked up a bit. and I was actually pleasantly surprised to see, that the people asking about it had the sense to ask first before calling the police.

My brother had a husky when he lived upstate in lake effect country. There was no keeping that dog inside when it was cold and whiteout snows.

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

SLIGHT bump south on the RGEM.

is that freakin freehold? 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs basically unchanged for us. A slight north shift on the southern edge

[MJO812]

Gfs is nice

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs basically unchanged

It got better to the south

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It got better to the south

Better for central jersey worse for Philly 

[Snowlover11]

6-8” incher on the gfs for just about everyone. Minus CT.