Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It would certainly be unusual. The New York City area hasn't seen many 4" or greater snowstorms when the PNA has been negative. Lighter amounts are far more common. Boston is usually favored with 4" or above amounts. 

Hey Don I may be mistaken however did this storm occur during a slightly negative PNA? January 27/28 2004.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Icon came south a bit

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don I may be mistaken however did this storm occur during a slightly negative PNA? January 27/28 2004.

 

 

 

No. Below are the PNA values:

2004  1 27  0.127
2004  1 28  0.228

[MJO812]

Gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

Monmouth county is going to win on that GfS run but overall a great run for all of us!

[David-LI]

GFS looks great for the NYC metro! Get your snow shovels and salt ready again.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

GFS looks great for the NYC metro! Get your snow shovels and salt ready again.

this one could be the bigger storm of the year. the ceiling is 6-12 on this one if all goes perfect 

[SnowGoose69]

Neither the AI or Op GFS changed much from 12z

[David-LI]

I GOTTA GET THE BREAD AND MILK!

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS keeps the temperature's below freezing even in the city for the entire event! 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If there is in fact a snowstorm Friday-Saturday in the NYC metro with a PNA that strongly negative (full-latitude trough down to Baja), then it will be remembered as an extremely anomalous event 

I agree but we've been experiencing a lot of atypical patterns and outcomes. Like how a strongly negative AO/NAO linked up with a SE ridge last winter, something that was unheard of. 

GFS also did poorly with the last snow event so take its outcome with a grain of salt. I would favor SNE to get it over us 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS keeps the temperature's below freezing even in the city for the entire event! 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS keeps the temperature's below freezing even in the city for the entire event! 

Shift that north 100 miles. Probably the real solution

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Shift that north 100 miles. Probably the real solution

what is your reasoning for this?

 

Any real scientific reasoning or you are just wishcasting like snowman

[mannynyc]

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what is your reasoning for this?

 

Any real scientific reasoning or you are just wishcasting like snowman

Gfs is usually wrong and too suppressed in this range. 

Needs some support from cmc and ukie if I'm going to buy it

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is usually wrong and too suppressed in this range. 

fair enough...let's see what happens

[mattinpa]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is usually wrong and too suppressed in this range. 

That said, I wonder if this will go too far north despite the other models. Will track - wish was on Christmas instead. 

[David-LI]

9 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

I guess I'll take number 18 with extra fries please

[Roger Smith]

Warm ridge in central US is slowly retrogressing and this Friday (possibly into Saturday as per CMC) wave is sliding down the retreating forward edge, a good scenario as it will lock in cold on northeast side of the wave. Also there's a good 50/50 type low forming as the Tuesday minor event explodes into a deep low south of NS and heads for s.e. Newfoundland. That locks in the cold high.

I could see this being an over-performer and giving the NYC region 8 to 12 inches of snow. Mixing issues will be way south, like PHL to DCA. I expect the timing may begin to shift a bit towards Friday overnight into Saturday morning. 

Looks like it is followed by a slight warming trend before extreme cold descends after the arctic vortex amplifies over the Lakes. That could lead to another 1-2 inches of snow from outer edges of rapidly developing coastal near Cape Cod. 

This is an oddball if not unique pattern setting up so analogues won't be very helpful. 

[MJO812]

Euro colder

[jm1220]

34 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Warm ridge in central US is slowly retrogressing and this Friday (possibly into Saturday as per CMC) wave is sliding down the retreating forward edge, a good scenario as it will lock in cold on northeast side of the wave. Also there's a good 50/50 type low forming as the Tuesday minor event explodes into a deep low south of NS and heads for s.e. Newfoundland. That locks in the cold high.

I could see this being an over-performer and giving the NYC region 8 to 12 inches of snow. Mixing issues will be way south, like PHL to DCA. I expect the timing may begin to shift a bit towards Friday overnight into Saturday morning. 

Looks like it is followed by a slight warming trend before extreme cold descends after the arctic vortex amplifies over the Lakes. That could lead to another 1-2 inches of snow from outer edges of rapidly developing coastal near Cape Cod. 

This is an oddball if not unique pattern setting up so analogues won't be very helpful. 

I hope you’re right-hoping for an inch tomorrow so that would get me to 9” for the month, then this could add quite a bit if it goes well. These usually trend north at the end, we’ll need confluence and blocking to keep it south. I’d feel a little better about this one for Boston but we’ll see. 

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I hope you’re right-hoping for an inch tomorrow so that would get me to 9” for the month, then this could add quite a bit if it goes well. These usually trend north at the end, we’ll need confluence and blocking to keep it south. I’d feel a little better about this one for Boston but we’ll see. 

Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, David-LI said:

I GOTTA GET THE BREAD AND MILK!

That will guarantee you get high cirrus while Philly is on the northern fringe.  Stay away from the bread and milk aisles until Saturday.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong 

 

50 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I hope you’re right-hoping for an inch tomorrow so that would get me to 9” for the month, then this could add quite a bit if it goes well. These usually trend north at the end, we’ll need confluence and blocking to keep it south. I’d feel a little better about this one for Boston but we’ll see. 

Why do you think the models trended south with this? Blocking. 

AI Euro Ensembles suggest a suppression risk .

 

[brooklynwx99]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong 

there is a nearly 3 sigma -NAO developing as this system moves in, so I would argue that blocking is indeed very strong

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Why do you think the models trended south with this? Blocking. 

AI Euro Ensembles suggest a suppression risk .

 

Hey-if that holds we’re good to go. Hopefully that’s real. 

[Stormlover74]