December 14th - Snow showers or Plowable snow?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice to miss 2 cycles of model runs to come back and see things are still on track. Still possible thing break either way but looks good for where I’m at.

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro brought the lighter QPF a bit north but trimmed back slightly south coast and Cape. Mostly just noise though. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

wtf 

It's Belichick After Jordan threw him out of the house.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Long range HRRR starting to look like other guidance now at 00z, it’s been the most paltry.  

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Long range HRRR starting to look like other guidance now at 00z, it’s been the most paltry.  

So is the RRFS the same thing/the replacement for HRRR?  And they’re running them both currently?  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So is the RRFS the same thing/the replacement for HRRR?  And they’re running them both currently?  

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[Torch Tiger]

I haven't looked at this for 18-24 hours. :/

[Torch Tiger]

NOT for here, but I felt like there were signals for over 4" over the cape somewhere.  Could that be a thing?    

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looks like it regressed slightly from 18z. It’s definitely been fairly consistently paltry. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looks like it regressed slightly from 18z. It’s definitely been fairly consistently paltry. 

Thought it looked bette early, but yeah. Ever so slightly worse 

[Torch Tiger]

brutal

[HIPPYVALLEY]

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

brutal

I’m glad Greenfield was never in play with this.  It makes my frustration factor zero.  Hoping southern peeps can at least get 1-2”.  

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m glad Greenfield was never in play with this.  It makes my frustration factor zero.  Hoping southern peeps can’t at least get 1-2”.  

you're positioned well for an ice storm or two; it's not snowing so let's hope for some epic ice?'

[Torch Tiger]

snow looks very scarce :/

[ORH_wxman]

No help on trends from RGEM or ICON. We’re prob toast up here for anything more than C-1”. South coast to Cape still has a chance at something more interesting. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

RGEM has slowly been fading that good band east over the last 3 runs. 
 

Congrats Chatham on half a foot.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah, I’ve seen enough… C-1 here will probably do it. Outside shot at 2

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No help on trends from RGEM or ICON. We’re prob toast up here for anything more than C-1”. South coast to Cape still has a chance at something more interesting. 

I’d imagine gfs and euro tic south to add some confusion since the hires models pretty much held serve 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Don’t chase the noise. A couple inches coming. 

[weathafella]

Yes gfs coming in decent.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs a bit better 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian a bit worse. Seems like a consensus is building.

few inches on the beaches. Costing to an inch elsewhere 

[Snowcrazed71]

37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs a bit better 

So, it seems to have pulled up to the euro ( or closer to it )

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This could end up a warning event somewhere between Montauk and Provincetown.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Canadian a bit worse. Seems like a consensus is building.

few inches on the beaches. Costing to an inch elsewhere 

Snow on beaches is very cool.  I just can't chase to Falmouth this weekend. 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So, it seems to have pulled up to the euro ( or closer to it )

Euro trimmed back too on the runs today.

[weathafella]

Gfs AI was 2 inches to the pike region.

[WinterWolf]

In terminator we trust…”the snow will be baaack!” 

[BrianW]

6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Snow on beaches is very cool.  I just can't chase to Falmouth this weekend. 

Yeah. So serene. Looks like a nice deep winter feel here on the shoreline for a few days. 

 

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* 1 to 4 inches of snow are expected across the area tonight into Sunday morning, with up to 5 inches in eastern Long Island.

* Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded slightly west and north to include all coastal zones from 10pm tonight through 1pm Sunday.

* Windy and cold Sunday night into Monday morning with wind chills  below zero in some areas.